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[smjjames]

Maybe a few are shadow communists, you never know

Just messing with you.

Later on (MUCH later, as in a year and a half), it would be cool to get some of the non-americans insight on the presidential candidates. Not in this thread though, in whatever thread is being used during the presidential elections.

[Owlbread]

I was about to go on about slippery characters and other fish metaphors but I'm going to stop myself because it's atrocious. Instead, I'm just going to report the new development I've found like a normal human being.

Nicola Sturgeon, soon to be First Minister of Scotland, has insisted that in order for the UK to leave the European Union, every constituent nation within the UK has to vote in favour of leaving. This means that if Scotland or Wales or Northern Ireland votes No in the EU referendum coming up in 2017 (if there's a Tory government in 2015) then the UK cannot leave the EU, even if a massive English Yes voting majority means that there's a UK wide majority for withdrawal.

This will have a number of effects; the most important of which is that the UK parties will be forced to choose between pleasing the enormous English electorate which decides whether they're elected or not, or appeasing Scotland and the other British regions which have aspirations for autonomy. The UK parties will inevitably choose England. None of them actually want to leave the EU; they'd love to use the new Scottish/Welsh/NI veto thing because it's a get out of jail card, but the power of the English electorate when it is disgruntled is a force to be reckoned with, especially when every mainstream party is losing ground to UKIP. Labour nearly lost their seat to UKIP in the Heywood and Middleton by election last month; that's a Northern English Labour safe seat, not a failing old seaside town like UKIP's traditional heartlands.

So yes, the public outcry will be such that the uppity Scots will be told that they've just voted to stay in the UK, therefore they must accept UK decisions; even if that means being pulled out of the EU. We are unlikely to get Sturgeon's veto and she knows it. This then opens the door to my 2020 scenario where Scotland has a separate referendum to secede from the UK once again and remain within the European Union.

Mark my words; everything will be different in that referendum. It's hard to sell the "Better Together" argument when the UK electorate just voted to leave the world's biggest trading and free-movement bloc, devolution has been hijacked by the Tories for political gain (undoubtedly leaving us with some stunted mess through the Smith Commission) and we've got yet another Tory government (as I predict) despite the fact that Scotland didn't vote for it. The worst of the cuts will have hit us by then, whether that's from a Labour or Tory government.

All those banks, businesses and newspapers which publicly opposed independence or were portrayed as doing so would suddenly find themselves joining the pro-independence camp as they try to ensure that they remain within the EU. I can imagine quite a few factories, headquarters and jobs moving north of the border to escape the disastrous effects of a British EU exit.

Although the EU withdrawal wouldn't mean a majority of Scots would automatically support independence; we can't say that for sure, given the fact that a lot of Scots do want to leave (just less than in England). However, with a 45% Yes vote in 2014, surely we could see at least a 6% swing in our favour in 2020/2023.

[Owlbread]

You mean there'll be a vote? They're not just gonna say 'Well, if you vote for us next time...'

I'm not entirely sure if I understand. There will be an EU referendum if the Tories get in. If Labour get in it's much less likely. Are you meaning Sturgeon's policy? It probably won't even get far enough to be a vote in the Commons because the UK parties are likely to oppose it for the reasons I have explained.

[Owlbread]

The Tories also said there'd be a referendum if they were voted in THIS time. Now they're saying 'OK, vote for us again and you'll get it.'

Yes, you're right, but even I think the Tories actually mean it this time. They have to; otherwise they can't stave off the UKIP hordes that are swarming in their constituencies and safest seats. If the Tories get in in 2015 and don't hold an in/out EU referendum then they'll get wiped at the following general election.

EDIT:

Aaaaand as if by magic:

"PM rejects Scottish referendum veto"

Mr Cameron, who has placed a referendum by the end of 2017 at the heart of the Conservative election platform, said a simple majority across the UK would decide the result.

He said: "We are one United Kingdom, there will be one in-out referendum and that will be decided on a majority of those who vote.

"That is how the rules should work."

What did I tell you?

[Mictlantecuhtli]

http://www.rferl.org/content/rosneft-profits-crash-sanctions-ukraine/26664883.html

Russian state-controlled energy giant Rosneft says its profits during the third quarter of 2014 crashed dramatically after Western sanctions were imposed over Russia’s role in the Ukraine crisis.

Rosneft said on October 29 that its third-quarter net profits fell by 99.3 percent – down to $24.4 million -- compared to the same three-month period in 2013.

Rosneft’s access to Western financing and technology – needed to service its debts and bring east Siberian fields online – has been cut by the sanctions.

Rosneft also has been hurt by the falling value of Russia’s ruble currency.

Russia’s Economic Development Minister Aleksei Ulyukayev said on October 29 that the government cannot satisfy a request from Rosneft for a further bailout to help it service debts.

In August, Rosneft asked the Russian government for a huge financial bailout to help it repay debts of about $45 billion.

... I think Rosneft is going bankrupt if the government doesn't provide them the cash they need. Thanks Putin!

[Helgoland]

That's Radio Free Europe, though. To be taken with as large a grain of salt as RT.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

http://www.ft.com/fastft/227992/rosnefts-profit-almost-wiped-out-oil-slide

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2812598/Russias-Rosneft-posts-Q3-net-income-defies-forecast-loss.html

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N0SO3MR20141029

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e27ad08-5f8f-11e4-986c-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.cityam.com/1414600236/rosneft-stuck-rouble-rut-profits-plunge-99-cent

This is a number reported by the company.

[mainiac]

That's Radio Free Europe, though. To be taken with as large a grain of salt as RT.

I hate when people play the nominal equivalence card.  Just because they are both state funded propaganda doesn't mean they are the same.  You should no more hold RFE to the same standard as RT as you should hold RT to the same standard as North Korean Workers News.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

USD/RUB
43.146
+0.702
+1.65%

Meanwhile currency of soon to be #1 country of the world behaves in a strange way.

It was 34 rubles per $ back in July

[smjjames]

USD/RUB
43.146
+0.702
+1.65%

Meanwhile currency of soon to be #1 country of the world behaves in a strange way.

It was 34 rubles per $ back in July

Not really following all the economic stuff here and what do you mean the US currency is behaving in a strange way?

[Sergarr]

He obviously meant the RU currency, smjjames.

[mainiac]

Oh I thought he meant France.

[Sergarr]

Oh I thought he meant France.

[smjjames]

He obviously meant the RU currency, smjjames.

He doesn't like Russia, so why would he call it the soon to be #1 country? Unless it was sarcasm on URs part.

That aside, I'm just wondering what he means by 'behaving strangely'.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

I think your sarcasm meter is just completely broken mate..