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[RedKing]

W is a voyel? Poor Welsh, forced to pretend consonants are voyels so their jaws don't fall off.

I have a theory that Wales declared independence years ago, but nobody understood them. Including the Welsh.

[Owlbread]

Another interesting fact from that poll is that, when the poll is weighted to those who are certain to vote in the referendum (rather than those who are uncertain/are definitely going to stay at home), Yes surpasses No.

[mainiac]

It's all well and fine to post your fanboyism with what the poll responses are but please do tamper down on the wishful thinking about what the poll crosstabs mean.

Polling in the modern world is hard.  Very, very, very hard.  Response rates are abysmal so pollsters need to interpret everything through a demographic screen in order to try to measure shifts in opinions instead of shifts in response rate.  When you go all fanboy about the crosstabs you are basically just using the power of wishful thinking as your demographic screen.  People end up saying all manner of silly things every US presidential election and those are a model of simplicity compared to this referendum.

Not to say that a shift in the polls doesn't mean a shift in the population.  Just keep in mind that debating the exact position of the polls is about as meaningful as a bunch of diehard sports fans arguing who's going to win a game.

[Owlbread]

It's all well and fine to post your fanboyism with what the poll responses are but please do tamper down on the wishful thinking about what the poll crosstabs mean.

Polling in the modern world is hard.  Very, very, very hard.  Response rates are abysmal so pollsters need to interpret everything through a demographic screen in order to try to measure shifts in opinions instead of shifts in response rate.  When you go all fanboy about the crosstabs you are basically just using the power of wishful thinking as your demographic screen.  People end up saying all manner of silly things every US presidential election and those are a model of simplicity compared to this referendum.

Not to say that a shift in the polls doesn't mean a shift in the population.  Just keep in mind that debating the exact position of the polls is about as meaningful as a bunch of diehard sports fans arguing who's going to win a game.

Thank you for telling me in three paragraphs everything I already knew, Mainiac. You're talking to someone who has spent the last three years arguing why opinion polls are not always representative of the population or how things are going on the ground. I don't need to say anything more about that. The only reason why I'm posting the details of these polls is because of recent media interest and the narrative; any data can be interesting when something like a big swing is taking place.

I'm sorry I seem to have annoyed you with my posts, but it's ok, keep calling me a "fanboy" as well, by all means - I'm a supporter or "fanboy" of independence and social justice, just as you're a supporter of American Liberalism and the Democrat Party. I don't think I've heard the word "fanboy" thrown around much in political discussion though, particularly not on Bay 12 - maybe we were too mature for that until you showed up, given that most of us know that kind of talk accomplishes nothing and only muddies the waters of our debates.

[Descan]

Dude I think you just got bitched out by Owlbread.

It's kind of hard to tell, he's very... British.

[GreatJustice]

Dude I think you just got bitched out by Owlbread.

It's kind of hard to tell, he's very... British.

Or, if things go his way, Scottish.

[mainiac]

Thank you for telling me in three paragraphs everything I already knew, Mainiac. You're talking to someone who has spent the last three years arguing why opinion polls are not always representative of the population or how things are going on the ground. I don't need to say anything more about that. The only reason why I'm posting the details of these polls is because of recent media interest and the narrative; any data can be interesting when something like a big swing is taking place.

Oh you are an expert.  Well that simplifies what I mean to say.  Please disregard what I said and replace it with this:
Why are you discussing likely voter models in a situation with so little historical data?

[Owlbread]

Spoiler: In reply to Mainiac (click to show/hide)

Why are you discussing likely voter models in a situation with so little historical data?

Why indeed? The entire Scottish political commentariat should ask themselves that question. We all have theories on how this referendum will go; it's just human nature to speculate. The more uncertain the thing is the more we want to speculate about it. However - notice that that is all I'm doing. Speculating about the likelihood of Scotland voting yes or no, something I am very anxious about.

I've been very clear for several pages now that absolutely anything can happen - if we believe the polls No lost a 20+ point lead in the space of 1 month. No pronouncements that I make on poll crosstabs and the like are to be taken as gospel. It is all speculation. I hope my waffling and platitudes are satisfactory as responses to your question.

I was very amused by this summary of the independence debate as-it-stands now by Charlie Brooker.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Less popular than Windows 8? Shit, might as well start dismantling Buckingham and giving the bricks to passerby now.

[smjjames]

This bit is such lol:

"If Scotland divorces Britain, the union jack will have to be redesigned, which is upsetting news for every prick with a union jack cushion on their stupid sofa in their stupid house. Minus the soothing, steadying blue of the saltire, the flag’s going to resemble a violent, blood-burst staining a shroud. Better to scrap it and start again with a new design that more accurately reflects the spirit of the age. I vote for a crying brown oblong."

Not entirely getting the crying brown oval thing, but still funny.

[Digital Hellhound]

I particularly liked this bit:

George Osborne abruptly announced he would shortly unveil a range of new powers and benefits Scotland could look forward to in the event of a no vote. Increased powers of taxation. The ability to control the sea. Banknotes made of liquorice. Free stickers. If it votes no, Scotland will also receive the Angel of the North, the Eden Project, Stonehenge, the Cutty Sark, Alton Towers, a souvenir pen, a backrub and access to the new royal baby at weekends. It’s all a little undignified, like a man on his knees clutching his girlfriend’s ankles and sobbing that he can change. “It’s no’ you, it’s me,” replies Scotland, in its newly exotic foreign accent, before slinking off to have exciting sex with Greenland.

[Sheb]

Not entirely getting the crying brown oval thing, but still funny.

A crying shit?

[Guardian G.I.]

Spoiler: Ukrainian propaganda aimed at the EU audience (click to show/hide)

[Helgoland]

It's pretty spot-on, though - you don't go for food autarky unless you're expecting a major war.

Edit:

No, the only way Cameron’s going to win a single no vote is if he leaves his clothes on a beach and pretends to have swum off into oblivion, or vows to slam his balls in a car door if Scotland decides to stay. I don’t have a vote, but I vote for the latter.

[scriver]

I wouldn't say no to the power to control the sea. That'd make for a pretty cool superhero.