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[MarcAFK]

William Hague, British foreign secretary, steps down in Tory cabinet reshuffle. Hague stepping down is massive - he was practically Cameron's third man after George Osborne. He even led the party in the early 2000s. Other MPs stepping down include the venerable Ken Clarke who was a part of both Margaret Thatcher and John Major's cabinets.

People say the reason for the reshuffle is to replace old Thatcherite stalwarts with younger, female faces and possibly more Scots. Who knows.

My theory for Hague stepping down (which, I reiterate, is massive - it's like John Kerry stepping down) is that he is about to be embroiled in a scandal over child abuse. There is a large inquiry going on into MPs engaging in sexual abuse of children in the 1990s in North Wales in children's homes and one victim claimed a senior Tory MP (who is still alive) abused him viciously for years. This abuse, he also claims, was covered up by William Hague, then-Welsh secretary.

Ken Clarke was also implicated years ago, his name was actually scrubbed from records and press releases soon afterwards, I recall there was some incident where a sting operation was set up by some media agency using a child, and he groped the kid.

[palsch]

I'd strongly recommend against making allegations you can't back up. Even with the recent reforms, British libel law isn't something you fuck about with. It also seems unlikely to me that they are expecting such a scandal to have legs.

Firstly, they are promoting Hague even more heavily as the PM’s Special Representative in the campaigna against sexual violence. Not only would that be ugly hypocrisy, it would also risk doing damage to the campaign, something that I'm fairly certain the most cynical politician would consider undesirable. Handing it off to the new Secretary would have been easy enough. Not to mention his new position as the Leader of the House is still highly visible and would hardly insulate the party from any embarrassment. Again, Hague is a party animal and would try to avoid completely torpedoing the Tories if he believed anything was coming down the line.

Secondly, the original report he was supposed to have suppressed was published three years after the old Tory government left office. Even if the original remit was narrow there would have been time for the new government to be informed and the terms revised. It's not like Labour of 1997-2000 would have been particularly interested in covering up yet more Tory sleaze. Those accusations are possible, but unlikely.

[MarcAFK]

You're right about Libel law, however google ken clarke groped me and you'll find quite a few allegations Including the incident I was alluding to.
Edit: Ignore the post from David icke obviously...

[palsch]

Edit: Ignore the post from David icke obviously...

...

Anyway, among the Truther infighting I found this which sounds reasonably conclusive.


The reshuffle forming up now.

Gove out of education will be welcome news to many teachers. I don't know about their plans to put him in front of cameras more often though. The background role of a whip might be more useful for the party as a whole, although he will want the publicity personally to help launch any future leadership bids. His replacement is relatively unknown, but has the honour of being an equalities minister who opposes gay marriage. So there's that.

Elizabeth Truss is an interesting character. Grew up in very left wing family, was a Lib Dem at university (president of Oxford Lib Dems) then joined the Tories. Seems to be a rather libertarian minded reformist (past deputy-direct of Reform), with an emphasis on social mobility. Not sure about putting her in the environment role, although generally it serves more as a stepping stone for upwardly mobile party figures rather than an actual position in itself. Her pro-science/maths views might have made her popular with certain groups in a more senior education role, but I'm less certain. The reforms she tried to promote herself were loved by business but opposed by actual childcare bodies and ended up being blocked by Nick Clegg.

Jeremy Wright as AG is hard to say. On one hand he seemed to be the one at the MoJ with the most legal experience and softest touch. On the other hand he was the only one at the MoJ with legal experience and a soft touch. And on that note;

Chris Grayling staying in his position is an insult. He's pushed through the horrific legal reforms and shown an utter lack of understanding of the law. To quote the always irreverent Charon QC;

I talk of no other than Lord Chancellor Grayling, a man of vision who made his long walk to freedom  from obscurity to hold one of the highest offices of state in the land: Lord Chancellor -  the first non-lawyer to serve as Lord Chancellor since the Earl of Shaftesbury in 1672-3.  It did not end well for The Earl of Shaftesbury, it has to be said – although charges of High Treason were dropped and Shaftesbury fled to Amsterdam,  fell ill, and soon died.  But, be that as it may.

That from when people were mocking his expenses claims.

Michael Fallon to defence is a meh. Not someone to my taste, but a relatively old hand and likely reliable in that position. Seems to have Eurosceptic tendencies but don't know if that's a drawback in the defence role or not. Guess it depends what happens with EU negotiations in the next couple of years.

Stephen Crabb is the first Conservative minister since 1901 to wear a beard.

Spoiler: Although it looks more like he was too excited to get his new job and forgot to shave for a few days. (click to show/hide)

Anyway, new secretary of state for Wales. Looks like his focus is mostly international relations, human rights and development. Also welfare reform, which generally means screw the poor.

Mark Harper is back. He resigned as an immigration minister over accusations he was employing an illegal immigrate as a cleaner. This after running one of the nastier anti-immigration campaigns not run by an openly fascist group in the UK. Seriously, Farage called it nasty. He is now at the Department for Work and Pensions under Ian Duncan Smith.

And speaking of, none of the other names at the top are moving. IDS, Osborne, May and Hunt all keep their positions.


EDIT: Still coming in.

Nick Boles gets a specific remit to implement gay marriage rules. Currently in a civil partnership himself, we will have an openly gay man putting same-sex marriage laws into practice in more ways than one. Also something of a hardliner when it comes to welfare and related topics, which is less attractive.

Alan Duncan, on the other hand, is gone. The first openly gay Conservative MP, he was also considered very liberal and progressive for the party. He then had a failed leadership bid and got absolutely slaughtered during the expenses scandal. I went to find the HIGNY segment that murdered his upward mobility, only to find it was hosted by Rolf Harris... So there's that.

The Spectator is reporting that Liam Fox has turned down a job at the Foreign Office, albeit at a relatively junior level to his past roles. Interesting development to say the least. Looked like Cameron fucked up.

[Loud Whispers]

Looks like the Luhansk rebels claimed responsibility for shooting it down. However, if the rebels actually are the ones who shot it down, that means two things, they either got ahold of some of Ukraines own missiles or someone gave it to them. Also, wouldn't they need access to radar or some other tracking system to actually target the plane? Which implies a good deal of sophisticated equipment.

Very early on into the Ukraine crisis (before the separatists were tearing bits of Ukraine off into their own republics) surface to air missiles were being lost even then. They were probably Ukrainian missiles.

The UK is one of two countries in the world with unelected clerics as part of their national legislature, along with Iran.

We also have a monarch.

*EDIT

kinda unrelated but americans not having negotiations with bin laden was pretty much what his "strategy" was all about
drag americans into afghanistan and break their back there just like they did the soviets

Bin Laden wanted 9/11 to get Americans out of the middle east.

Worked out well for him, didn't it?

[Guardian G.I.]

Looks like the Luhansk rebels claimed responsibility for shooting it down. However, if the rebels actually are the ones who shot it down, that means two things, they either got ahold of some of Ukraines own missiles or someone gave it to them. Also, wouldn't they need access to radar or some other tracking system to actually target the plane? Which implies a good deal of sophisticated equipment.

Very early on into the Ukraine crisis (before the separatists were tearing bits of Ukraine off into their own republics) surface to air missiles were being lost even then. They were probably Ukrainian missiles.

Besides Igla MANPADS, pro-Russian forces have some Soviet-era Strela-10 SAM systems.

Spoiler: A rebel Strela-10 with a personalized name (Лягушонок - Froggy) and two kill markings (click to show/hide)

However, the maximum flight altitude of its missiles is about 3000-3500 meters. The Ukrainian government claims that the destroyed transport plane was flying at an altitude of 6500 meters.

[MonkeyHead]

Gove being shunted out of education (and I will openly admit to being massively biased here not only as I am a dirty welsh commie but also work in the education sector) is a big deal. He was leading some big, sweeping and unpopular changes that are going to cost the Tories a lot of votes from disaffected people working in the education sector, and due to these changes there is pretty much all out war between teaching unions, the schools inspectorate and the dept. of education, with Gove being on the receiving end of much anger. Removing him could be seen as a sign of weakness or admission of failure from Cameron who is acknowledging the governments untenable position to enact education reforms the nature of which are against the will of the education sector and without consulting teachers. Cameron is also probably hoping that a new face will be able to put an end to the worst of the ongoing conflict, though quite how she is going to do that I do not know. If Cameron wants to win back votes from the education sector, she has got her work cut out.

[palsch]

Some graphs of the reshuffle. The surge of women looks a bit weaker in that form...


And a teacher specific opinion poll that might have contributed towards Gove's leaving.

[Owlbread]

Gove being shunted out of education (and I will openly admit to being massively biased here not only as I am a dirty welsh commie but also work in the education sector) is a big deal. He was leading some big, sweeping and unpopular changes that are going to cost the Tories a lot of votes from disaffected people working in the education sector, and due to these changes there is pretty much all out war between teaching unions, the schools inspectorate and the dept. of education, with Gove being on the receiving end of much anger. Removing him could be seen as a sign of weakness or admission of failure from Cameron who is acknowledging the governments untenable position to enact education reforms the nature of which are against the will of the education sector and without consulting teachers. Cameron is also probably hoping that a new face will be able to put an end to the worst of the ongoing conflict, though quite how she is going to do that I do not know. If Cameron wants to win back votes from the education sector, she has got her work cut out.

I will never understand why Wales doesn't have its own education system right now. I was shocked to hear that it was only a few years ago that Wales even got its own powers of lawmaking. I understand the history behind it, Wales has only really been recognised as a nation and constituent part of the United Kingdom in the last century, but surely the devolution of such powers would be a matter of urgency for any government in Westminster simply as a matter of course?

[Guardian G.I.]

The United States of America have apparently gifted some UH-1 Iroquois helicopters to the Ukrainian military.

[MonkeyHead]

Gove being shunted out of education (and I will openly admit to being massively biased here not only as I am a dirty welsh commie but also work in the education sector) is a big deal. He was leading some big, sweeping and unpopular changes that are going to cost the Tories a lot of votes from disaffected people working in the education sector, and due to these changes there is pretty much all out war between teaching unions, the schools inspectorate and the dept. of education, with Gove being on the receiving end of much anger. Removing him could be seen as a sign of weakness or admission of failure from Cameron who is acknowledging the governments untenable position to enact education reforms the nature of which are against the will of the education sector and without consulting teachers. Cameron is also probably hoping that a new face will be able to put an end to the worst of the ongoing conflict, though quite how she is going to do that I do not know. If Cameron wants to win back votes from the education sector, she has got her work cut out.

I will never understand why Wales doesn't have its own education system right now. I was shocked to hear that it was only a few years ago that Wales even got its own powers of lawmaking. I understand the history behind it, Wales has only really been recognised as a nation and constituent part of the United Kingdom in the last century, but surely the devolution of such powers would be a matter of urgency for any government in Westminster simply as a matter of course?

Education is a devolved issue (and has been since the formation of the assembly), and our schools are run by the Assembly using money from Westminster. Our last 2 education ministers have clashed with both the ex-minister Ed Balls, and the also ex-minister Gove, for what good it did. Less money than they give to English schools mind you (One place I regularly work in is running at 50% of the funding per pupil than a school in England, but is still operating in the 5% of schools in the UK in all key indicators, which makes it remarkable). We opt out of the league table system and statutory tests at most Key Stages, and instead operate a very flawed "banding system" where a complicated formula is used to put schools into performance bands. The banding formula though is heavily weighted towards improvement, meaning strong schools tend to hover in a middle band, while weak schools yo-yo up and down as their performance varies year on year. Before GCSE most assessment is teacher led assessment against nationwide set criteria, not written tests or exams. The welsh language and culture is also apparent in all areas of our education system, for fairly obvious reasons.

The separation is most apparent in the primary sector. We start primary education a year earlier than England (giving us a rather unusual year 0 at age 3 to fall into line with yr 6 being the last primary year and secondary going from year 7 (11 years old) to 11 (16 years old) (then tertiary being 12 and 13), as used elsewhere in the UK). Early primary (KS1) is based around "the foundation phase", which is way different from the English approach. It is very pupil centric and based around free form learning activities designed to foster core skills. KS2 is similar to England, but over the last few years it has developed a MASSIVE push onto core literacy and numeracy, rather thank knowledge based assessments. This is echoed in KS3 (the first part of secondary education), where subject skills are assessed by classroom teachers, not subject knowledge assessed by testing like in England. The huge push on core literacy and numeracy is evident here as well. KS4 (GCSE or equivalent) and KS5 (A/S and A2 or equivalent) has remained broadly the same as the rest of the UK to ensure portability, and as the Welsh Joint Education Committee exam board has more entrants from outside Wales for its qualifications than inside, and they do not want to shut their market out. Tacked onto this is the Welsh Baccalaureate, an add on qualification if a pupil meets certain success criteria in addition to academic study very loosely modelled on the IB. Most universities outside of Wales ignore it though.

In Wales thanks to the devolution of education we have not been subject to the academy system which basically deregulates schools in exchange for more cash (so the staff get fucked over, basically), and I am not aware of any free schools being set up. The Labour led assembly has looked after teachers better by sticking to the workload agreement signed with the teaching unions by the Blair government (unlike academies in England who are not required to do so), and has a far better working relationship with the NUT and NASUWT than Westminster currently does. There has been no real issues caused by this gradual drift away from the system in England until 18 months or so ago, when exam results for a WJEC English language GCSE ended up far lower than estimated grades - basically the department of education lent on the exam board to set tougher criteria, and they never told schools. Schools in England were refused a re-assessment of papers. The Welsh assembly ignored Westminster, pissing Gove and Cameron off a lot, and ordered the WJEC to reassess work under the old guidelines schools were working towards. This led to pupils in Wales attaining A or B grades for work that in England yielded its pupils C grades. This may be the first sign that a true split is on the way, where we fully move to our own way of teaching, learning and assessing rather than just putting a different spin on things.

[palsch]

(One place I regularly work in is running at 50% of the funding per pupil than a school in England, but is still operating in the 5% of schools in the UK in all key indicators, which makes it remarkable)

50% compared to London or Cambridge?

The Dedicated School Grant (DSG) for 2014/15 has been published with per-pupil funding once again ranging from around £3,950 to as much as £8,595.

London authorities dominate the list of highest per-pupil funding, with the City of London getting the most at £8,595 ahead of Tower Hamlets (£7,014) and Hackney (£6,680.05).

Nottingham is the highest outside of the capital, receiving £5,309, while Birmingham gets £5,218 and Manchester £5,088.

At the other end of the scale, Cambridgeshire is the worst funded per-pupil at £3,950, followed by South Gloucestershire (£3,969) and Leicestershire (£3,995).

[Ukrainian Ranger]

The United States of America have apparently gifted some UH-1 Iroquois helicopters to the Ukrainian military.

I highly doubt that this is not a well made fake.
If that video is true. Than it must be Georgian UH-1s. It is our ally and got some from USA earlier

[Owlbread]

If it is indeed true that Ukraine has been given UH-1s by the Americans then it will be absolutely hilarious if Putin starts criticising them for it. "How dare America give these helicopters to Ukraine so they can be used in the killing of civilians" etc.

Authoritarians rarely have a good sense of irony. And neither do their supporters, for that matter.

[LordSlowpoke]

oh gosh are you saying that arming assad against isis co. is equal with americans or georgians arming ukraine

you're going off the deep end owlie