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Author Topic: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!  (Read 1771383 times)

mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7410 on: July 09, 2014, 01:36:55 pm »

I would say that 1 isn't very likely to cause a crisis because that's what you'd get with the adaptation of a new floating currency coupled with government support for contracts getting renegotiated.  That insulates you against credit risk due to currency changes but it has the drawback of being the most difficult and expensive course of action.  Since the Scotland crowd hasn't been emphasizing the hard work component so far I would be surprised to see them take the harsh medicine.  And given that the european economy is very weak right now it's not an ideal time to be taking harsh medicine.  Scotland has more room to fall then say, Greece, so thats a serious concern.

2 is what I consider the really big concern.  While it's true that the failures are very irrational, as you note, the problem is that the markets can remain irrational for a long time.  The 2nd half of the 20th century was notable for seeing crisis after crisis in foreign denominated assets and there was no reason for say, the US to want to see the economy of Singapore or Mexico to collapse.  Post '97 nations have learned to avoid too much exposure to exchange rates.  Not breaking ties with the pound would actually be worse then that because the pound is a much smaller currency then the dollar is.  It's very possible that a boom and bust in North Sea exploration for instance could cause the Scottish and British economies to move in opposite directions with devestating consequences.  I'd go so far as to say I'd expect something like that to occur.

The Euro scenario isn't quite as !FUN! as the pound scenario but the Eurozone still carries a lot of unresolved baggage.  I just dont see the Euro achieving balance without a European government being given very broad taxing and spending power that would need to include a substantial fraction of automatic stabilizer non-discretionary funding such as retirement and unemployment moneys.  And I find it farfetched to believe that the Scottish voters are going to revolt in demand of more fiscal autonomy only to turn around and hand that over to a pan-national entity.

It's possible for a newly independent nation to start off on a good monetary foot.  I just don't have high hopes that Scotland will do that.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7411 on: July 09, 2014, 03:25:16 pm »

rUK
I keep reading this as the Republic of the United Kingdoms, it keeps jarring me.

It remains to be seen if we can pull through and I think it'll be quite touch-and-go if we get sucked into another military intervention like we nearly were last year.
We were not going to war last year. No one wants to touch anything in the middle east with a thousand foot pole and our offer of help to Syria was to let Merrica use our bases, which we already do.

TD1

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7412 on: July 09, 2014, 03:50:22 pm »

*Shudders at mention of Middle East*

Yep, yep. Not goin' back :P
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7413 on: July 09, 2014, 03:57:43 pm »

Afghanistan: Where world powers go to die, serving Emperors, Kings and Presidents since 330 B.C.

SharpKris

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7414 on: July 09, 2014, 04:03:48 pm »

Middle East... wish i had a foreign passport and i don't  even have the worst of it
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scriver

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7415 on: July 09, 2014, 05:58:00 pm »

Middle East... wish i had a foreign passport and i don't  even have the worst of it

What do you mean?
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Descan

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7416 on: July 09, 2014, 07:40:53 pm »

He lives in Israel.
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smjjames

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7417 on: July 09, 2014, 10:30:26 pm »

The Middle East topic is leaking into the Europe thread again. Though I guess if you're talking about it in the context of Europe....
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7418 on: July 09, 2014, 10:31:14 pm »

The Middle East topic is leaking into the Europe thread again. Though I guess if you're talking about it in the context of Europe....
Israel gets votes in eurovision
Checkmate

TD1

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7419 on: July 09, 2014, 10:35:26 pm »

The Middle East topic is leaking into the Europe thread again. Though I guess if you're talking about it in the context of Europe....
Israel gets votes in eurovision
Checkmate

No, no. For full impact, say "Check and mate"
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smjjames

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7420 on: July 09, 2014, 10:38:56 pm »

The Middle East topic is leaking into the Europe thread again. Though I guess if you're talking about it in the context of Europe....
Israel gets votes in eurovision
Checkmate

No, no. For full impact, say "Check and mate"

And Turkey is a participant in Eurovision I believe.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7421 on: July 09, 2014, 10:56:12 pm »

And Turkey is a participant in Eurovision I believe.
You have unraveled my argument, IMPOSSIBLE!

mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7422 on: July 09, 2014, 11:08:22 pm »

Looks like...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■)
fool and mate
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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SharpKris

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7423 on: July 09, 2014, 11:17:03 pm »

It's funny how we're sometimes part of Europe and sometime not :P
*feels utterly shameful of our representatives in the Eurovision*
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TD1

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #7424 on: July 09, 2014, 11:39:40 pm »

Eh. Eurovision IS something to be ashamed of.

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