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[MonkeyHead]

See,for me, the trouble with polls is that they include the grey areas. The vote will be a yes or no. They should simply ask people yes or no - that way, there can be no political manipulation of the data, as the poll reflects what would happen if the vote were to happen at that instant. Is there any data of that nature?

[misko27]

See,for me, the trouble with polls is that they include the grey areas. The vote will be a yes or no. They should simply ask people yes or no - that way, there can be no political manipulation of the data, as the poll reflects what would happen if the vote were to happen at that instant. Is there any data of that nature?

But that poll sacrifices accuracy for definitiveness. The simple fact of the matter is that people are on edge, and policy makers and political analysts of all stripes would much rather know that where people actually stand then the basic yes/no. I mean hell "don't know"s may not even go to the damn polls. And then a poll very clearly predicting one side is proved wrong simply because a lot of people who picked that side really didn't know and chose the other.

Pretending things are black and white certainly doesn't leave the results up for interpretation, but the accuracy would be, as politicians from side B can claim that side A is full of people who are on the edge, and they may well be right because how do you know? All the don't knows may en masse vote "Yes", and if politicians can manipulate the data and say that all the don't knows will vote "Yes" it's because that very well may happen.

[Owlbread]

See,for me, the trouble with polls is that they include the grey areas. The vote will be a yes or no. They should simply ask people yes or no - that way, there can be no political manipulation of the data, as the poll reflects what would happen if the vote were to happen at that instant. Is there any data of that nature?

The worst polls in the independence debate are the ones that include "devo max" as an option. Devo max will never happen and it is dead in the water, this is an all-or-nothing referendum, yes or no. Status quo with a handful of pretty useless powers vs full independence and control of everything.

[10ebbor10]

Anyway, is this a mandatory everyone should vote poll, or a see who bothers to show up poll.

[Owlbread]

Anyway, is this a mandatory everyone should vote poll, or a see who bothers to show up poll.

The referendum or the poll from ICM? Scotland has no mandatory voting at all so pretty much any poll is a "see who bothers to show up" poll.

[10ebbor10]

In that case the result might deviate strongly from what the polls say.

[TD1]

Probably the more fervent would show. There could be masses, either side, that know what they'll vote but didn't go to a poll.

[Owlbread]

In that case the result might deviate strongly from what the polls say.

I've been saying that for years. My sincerest hope is that Unionists will be less likely to get out and vote. By my experiences most Unionists aren't virulently so, they just say "ach there's no point, Scotland couldn't do it anyway" or "we'd be daft to go for it". They're more likely to just not bother.

[TD1]

Independence has too much press. Much of the media is saying there's a chance. That will motivate them.

[Owlbread]

Independence has too much press. Much of the media is saying there's a chance. That will motivate them.

The guys I'm thinking of aren't the types that could really be "motivated". As I said, they're not Unionist for any real ideological reason, they're just uncertain about stuff and would rather remain on the sidelines and be sceptical.

I think the amount of Scots who would vote No because they feel "British" or because they believe in the UK or something is quite small, comparatively. According to the last census the vast majority of Scots feel "only Scottish" i.e. not really British, even up in places like Shetland and Orkney. Comparing that with Northern Ireland would be quite interesting.

[Descan]

Yeah, that's what I was trying to say earlier, Owlbread.

To a lesser extent as well, it feels to me that a larger amount of no-voters say no just as a "I haven't really bothered to check this thing out, so I'm going to say no." when asked by a pollster.

Of course, with the media around that, I'm sure the number of people doing that is rather low. But with a vote looking to be this close, any little percentage or fraction of a percentage helps.

Remind me again, is this a straight-majority vote? Or are they being sneaky and saying "You need 60%!" or "You need 50% of the ENTIRE Scottish population to say yes, not just those voted!"

[TD1]

That sounds...rather dismissive.

It is the beliefs that are not easily validated which are most defended when under threat.

[Owlbread]

Remind me again, is this a straight-majority vote? Or are they being sneaky and saying "You need 60%!" or "You need 50% of the ENTIRE Scottish population to say yes, not just those voted!"

This is a straight majority vote. We've already had those Canadian style shenanigans back in 1979 and the consequences are burned into the minds of Scots. We won't let that happen again.

[Descan]

That sounds...rather dismissive.

It is the beliefs that are not easily validated which are most defended when under threat.

* Descan shrug.

Not saying it's true, just how it feels to me.

[TD1]

I hadn't read yours when I posted; I probably should have linked this in  :/

Independence has too much press. Much of the media is saying there's a chance. That will motivate them.

The guys I'm thinking of aren't the types that could really be "motivated". As I said, they're not Unionist for any real ideological reason, they're just uncertain about stuff and would rather remain on the sidelines and be sceptical.

I think the amount of Scots who would vote No because they feel "British" or because they believe in the UK or something is quite small, comparatively. According to the last census the vast majority of Scots feel "only Scottish" i.e. not really British, even up in places like Shetland and Orkney. Comparing that with Northern Ireland would be quite interesting.