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[Owlbread]

Multi-party/issue elections are notoriously difficult to predict but I think the fundamentals are against the Scottish movement here.  Labour has benefited immensely from being in the wilderness while the Conservatives have presided over a weak economy and the LDs seem to be actively trying to destroy their own party.

I wouldn't say that Labour have benefited immensely. Opinion polls are showing Labour being pretty much neck and neck with the Tories (very slightly Labour lead), but their absolutely terrible leadership and incomprehensible policies aren't helping that. The Conservatives are still inexplicably popular among large tracts of the English and Welsh populations; Labour should be able to sweep this but their utter incompetence is prohibiting them.

I expect Labour to sweep and that's bad for SNIP, because left wing Scottish voters are going to be less inclined to support independence if they are seeing Labour coasting to victory then if they expect a conservative win.

Labour are anything but coasting to victory right now. The fact that Labour haven't been doing as well as they'd hoped over the last year or so and people's general dislike of the party may have something to do with the shift in recent months towards independence. People are also tired of all the scare stories from Labour and the other Westminster parties.

For this reason I wouldn't read too heavily into the short term fluctuation in the polls unless there is a bigger shift over a longer term then we've seen so far.

Indeed, we are all waiting for the latter part of the Summer before we can say for certain what is going on.

[Loud Whispers]

Yes, that's exactly what happened. We didn't conquer and colonise their lands and steal their resources and destroy their cultures, we just civilised them. Made them stable. That's why Africa is such a prime example of stability in the world, isn't it?

That's French Empire m8

[Owlbread]

That's French Empire m8

Granted, the French, Belgian, Portuguese and Italian former possessions are generally worse than British ones (Sierra Leone excluded) but they're still pretty terrible. If we look a bit closer to home I don't think the Irish are very happy about the "civilisation and stabilization" process we forced them to undergo. There's probably a lot of dead Tasmanian aborigines right now whose ghosts aren't very happy about what happened either.

[Loud Whispers]

Granted, the French, Belgian, Portuguese and Italian former possessions are generally worse than British ones but they're still pretty terrible. If we look a bit closer to home I don't think the Irish are very happy about the "civilisation and stabilization" process we forced them to undergo. There's probably a lot of dead Tasmanian aborigines right now whose ghosts aren't very happy about what happened either.

Irish and British blood goes all the way back and would always have been shit regardless of the Empire having existed or not (unless the two countries fought together in the great war or something). Without any unifying factor like that, the two will always be antagonistic to one another.
Portugal, good god Portugal's Empire.
France, nuff said.
But for Britain? I can think on the top of my head other than splitting Pakistan/India and the mess that is the middle east, it did pretty well. Especially considering the amount of countries it influenced, just look at Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Jamaica, Namibia e.t.c.
Aborigines 'nuff said, it wasn't a "civilization" effort it was just colonization. Better it have been done by British than some other European power though. I don't get how people can focus so heavily on smaller things whilst brushing over bigger things, if you want to look at the ill of the British Empire look at shit like the opium wars. I'm glad the British Empire died the way it did, bankrupt from fighting Nazism and peacefully granting independence to its members.

[scriver]

Counterpoint: Israel/Palestine.

[Loud Whispers]

Counterpoint: Israel/Palestine.

They're in the middle east aint they?

[mainiac]

Labour are anything but coasting to victory right now.

Well this list says the conservatives haven't won a poll in two years and Labour's polling is in the range of their best showing since 2001.  Don't get too swept up in the narrative.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

That's for the UK as a whole. Doesn't mean they're doing well in Scotland, which so far they haven't been.

[mainiac]

That's for the UK as a whole. Doesn't mean they're doing well in Scotland, which so far they haven't been.

Do you have anything to back that up?

Given the collapse of the LDs, even a historically poor showing by Labour in Scotland will be plenty to carry them to victory.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

That's for the UK as a whole. Doesn't mean they're doing well in Scotland, which so far they haven't been.

Do you have anything to back that up?

Given the collapse of the LDs, even a historically poor showing by Labour in Scotland will be plenty to carry them to victory.

The fact that SNP has a majority government in a historically coalition governed nation? It's not my fault you posted irrelevant data.

[mainiac]

That election was three years ago and it's the British elections that will coincide with the referendum, not the Scottish elections.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Might have been prudent to mention that in the first reply. In that case, I'm not sure I buy the idea that even a more left-wing Britain would make Scotland less likely to become independent. It's like saying that if there was a powerful secessionist movement in New England that they might be more likely to give up just because the Democrats did well in the South one election. Doesn't change the political bases very much. England is the Tory haven.

[mainiac]

Might have been prudent to mention that in the first reply. In that case, I'm not sure I buy the idea that even a more left-wing Britain would make Scotland less likely to become independent. It's like saying that if there was a powerful secessionist movement in New England that they might be more likely to give up just because the Democrats did well in the South one election. Doesn't change the political bases very much. England is the Tory haven.

If you want to draw an analogy to the US then the evidence points the exact opposite of where you say.

There was talk about succession in liberal Vermont when a conservative president did a lot of conservative stuff.  None with Obama president.  There was talk of succession in conservative Texas when a liberal president did a lot of liberal stuff.  None when Bush was president.  Or most dramatically of all, the American Civil War was a conservative faction breaking off after the liberals won the election.

People like it when the parties they want to win elections win and dislike it when they lose.  Not exactly the most radical theory in political science.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

There was talk about succession in liberal Vermont when a conservative president did a lot of conservative stuff.  None with Obama president.  There was talk of succession in conservative Texas when a liberal president did a lot of liberal stuff.  None when Bush was president.

Not even worth addressing since this was all whining to begin with.

Or most dramatically of all, the American Civil War was a conservative faction breaking off after the liberals won the election.

Actually, it was conservatives breaking off because a moderate pragmatist who openly said he wouldn't challenge them won the election. They were probably breaking off when they lost no matter what, as a result of nearly a century of political strife and a lack of clear power definition.

People like it when the parties they want to win elections win and dislike it when they lose.  Not exactly the most radical theory in political science.

Nobody believes England is going to become a stable area for Labor, so there's no reason that the results of a single leftward-swing will make a meaningful impact. Especially since it's not even more than a tossup yet.

[smjjames]

I haven't heard anything about our government being concerned about Scottish independence and I bet the British parliament in the 17th century gave the same sort of 'doom and gloom' speech about the US wanting to become independent.

Maybe those brits are just trying to keep together what is left of the 'Glorious British Empire'.

Was that sarcasm at the end?

Just because we captured 25% of the world doesn't mean you have to be sore.

Yeah it was pretty much sarcasm and joking around.