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[misko27]

You know what would solve this? An united European state. ~_~

It'd then become a matter of dividing the UK into two administrative divisions with everyone being able to blame Brussels for the bad things like they always do and nobody actually getting upset locally since it still only changes how things are governed on a local level. Sort of an empire-level title taking a duchy from a vassal kingdom and elevating it to a separate kingdom.

Or the US allowing two states to divide. That's only happened a few times though.

If you think about it, the EU could be seen as a particularly loose confederacy.

[GreatJustice]

You know what would solve this? An united European state.

Holy crap, what did you do to LordSlowpoke? But I like your views, identity thief~

I think LordSlowpoke is an account that keeps being left upon in a public library for everyone to use or something.

[Owlbread]

While speeches are interesting, polls are even better.

Have there been any recent polls in favour of independence yet?

I must say this with the greatest respect but the Scottish media hasn't shut up about the latest opinion poll on independence since the SNP even mentioned the word back in 2011. I'm just so sick of that kind of discussion (which invariably leads to the same rough conclusion - 30% in favour, 40% against, 10% undecided, but the admission from the No campaign that there's all to play for) that sometimes I just want to talk about independence and the different visions. Hence why I sent you fellows those speeches, I would really recommend you listen to them.

The situation with the polls remains basically the same as it did in 2011, although YouGov reported in the Winter period that independence had risen by 1% for the first time since the referendum discussion began and across the board the No vote has been softening into undecideds.

[Frumple]

Waiit, wait. 30% for, 40% against, 10% undecided. Where's the other 20%? Is this some strange scottish/european thing where you don't count up to 100%?

Would that make your polls... what, base 8 or something? I don't actually remember how base Foo stuff works, heh...

[MetalSlimeHunt]

So, do you think the fortunes of any of the minor parties will change with independence?

[Owlbread]

Waiit, wait. 30% for, 40% against, 10% undecided. Where's the other 20%? Is this some strange scottish/european thing where you don't count up to 100%?

Would that make your polls... what, base 8 or something? I don't actually remember how base Foo stuff works, heh...

I have no clue personally. I'm just quoting the figures I always hear. The key thing to remember here though was that the SNP in March 2011 were at 32% in the YouGov polls in February 2011 prior to the Scottish parliament general election. One poll quoted the SNP as being at about 29% in February. Labour were at 42% according to YouGov. The SNP won that election in May with 45% of the vote and the biggest parliamentary majority Scotland has ever seen.

The results were 45% SNP, 31% Labour in the constituency vote and 44% SNP, 26% Labour in the List vote.

So, do you think the fortunes of any of the minor parties will change with independence?

I certainly hope they will. I think Labour will have to get their act together which would mean getting rid of the current establishment lock, stock and barrel. The Tories and Lib Dems would flounder like fish out of water. Meanwhile the minor parties, that are virtually all campaigning in favour of independence, will have had their credibility boosted by a successful campaign and a greater public profile.

I think they could make a lot of gains, and remember this also - right now the future of Scottish politics are cutting their teeth on this campaign. I've talked about Alan Grogan before who I see as being quite important in the future, same with Cat Boyd, the good Mr. Harvie, also a number of much younger speakers like Saffron Dickson and Ross Greer. If you're interested I would recommend watching this space.

Ach well, maybe after the vote we'll be able to stop talking about polls and such and we'll be able to finally talk about the future.

[XXSockXX]

Sort of an empire-level title taking a duchy from a vassal kingdom and elevating it to a separate kingdom.

People getting their political or historical education from CK2 can have their titles revoked. 

Waiit, wait. 30% for, 40% against, 10% undecided. Where's the other 20%? Is this some strange scottish/european thing where you don't count up to 100%?

It's a well known fact that 20% of Europeans will always vote for their favourite football team in any poll.

Ach well, maybe after the vote we'll be able to stop talking about polls and such and we'll be able to finally talk about the future.

Thinking too much about polls now is a waste of time anyway, I wouldn't expect them to become really interesting before July or so. Even then there's usually a large enough margin of error for them to be wrong.
Interesting how much class divide issues seem to play a role in this, from what I hear in the SNP rhethoric that's a huge underlying problem, that may influence voters opinion on independence as much or even more than national sentiment.

[Owlbread]

The people talking about independence right now are the middle classes who invariably focus on minutiae like the currency issue or the EU or something. They just want to talk and like to argue and gossip. Many of them are also resistant to change and generally back the Union. Right now they've disappeared so far up their own backsides with obscure arguments that they've lost sight of what independence is really all about, so I hope that by the time of the vote they will snap out of it or just not bother voting.

The highest support for independence in contrast is among the lower classes who are generally unhappy with their lot and are more likely to back change. Unfortunately many of them hold semi-tribal loyalties to the Labour Party which was, once upon a time, the party of the working class. We're steadily trying to break those loyalties and judging by the SNP's recent performances we've been largely successful in that endeavor. There's still a long way to go yet of course.

The problem is of course that the middle classes are the ones that tend to vote while the lower classes are so disillusioned with politics that many have never voted in their lives.

In Olympic news...

The benevolent dictator Vladimir Putin has cautioned Gay visitors to Russia, explaining that although they are welcome in Russia they must stay away from children and not try to poison their minds with gay propaganda.

"Vladimir Putin. Homophobic after having to go through life with the name of a gay porn star."

[XXSockXX]

Hm, would be pretty ironic if the Tory shift to the right under Thatcher would indirectly cause Scottish independence. That would be quite the cut-back. 

[Owlbread]

Hm, would be pretty ironic if the Tory shift to the right under Thatcher would indirectly cause Scottish independence. That would be quite the cut-back. 

It certainly caused devolution, there's no doubt about that. It's what forced Labour to really consider the idea of giving greater powers to Scotland and, regardless of how the vote goes this year, it certainly brought us this far.

[LordSlowpoke]

In order to acquire the support of the middle class, you could just say that you won't continue the war that's waged on said middle class in England if you were independent from them. It's going to be a chore to implement though :v

[XXSockXX]

Hm, would be pretty ironic if the Tory shift to the right under Thatcher would indirectly cause Scottish independence. That would be quite the cut-back. 

It certainly caused devolution, there's no doubt about that. It's what forced Labour to really consider the idea of giving greater powers to Scotland and, regardless of how the vote goes this year, it certainly brought us this far.

Yeah, and it cemented that class divide and caused Labour to shift to the right too and lose credibility among the working class. Which is where the SNP can come in and offer perspectives to disenfranchised voters. Had there been a shift to the middle on both major ideological sides this wouldn't be a possibility.

[MonkeyHead]

There has been a shift to the middle though, by all major parties in the UK since the Major/Blair years, which is where UKIP see thier chance. There is no real leftists equivalent, yet.

[Owlbread]

The SNP understand that they need to be further left than Labour to get through to Scottish voters, yet remain as close to the centre as possible so that they can retain credibility.

[GreatJustice]

I've been told that the best way for the "Yes" voters in Scotland to win would be to get the English to vote on it too