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[ChairmanPoo]

What about natural causes? Is there an obvious sucessor to Lukashenko, or could Belarus experience a Franco-type transition to democracy

Or both.

[Owlbread]

It's not likely. The opposition doesn't have enough supporters for that. Plus, the leaders of the opposition are generally incompetent people without any clear political program other than "Let's get rid of Lukashenko and join the EU, we'll figure out the rest of the issues later". The EU keeps financing them through grants even though they are a waste of European taxpayers' money.

Some claim that the leaders of the opposition are incompetent because they're just puppets of the Belarusian security services. That said, I don't consider that to be a waste of European taxpayers' money because a victory of the opposition in Belarus will remove a disgusting human being from power and ensure a stronger Europe/World and help prevent the creation of some neo-Soviet/Russian Imperialist "Eurasian" superstate. Any cash being spent that would help protect democracy in Belarus is good in my books anyway.

Russia, Belarus and the East should join with the West, not form another coalition and create division once again. With the death of the USSR we were given a chance to change the dividing lines that run through the Earth and I believe that ending Putin's/The Russian Establishment/Elite's plans to create a new power bloc would be the next step.

For goodness sake "Russia" is a European country. Belarus is a European country. Ukraine is a European country. The pettiness is just unnecessary.

The protests in Tunisia and Egypt were not spontaneous, but carefully organized events.

Why all people with Soviet mentality think like that about all Arab Spring events?


I think it all depends on external factors. Any serious internal crisis in Russia and you can forget about Lukashenko because when Belorussian economy will rapidly collapse and no security forces will stop the wave.
How likely crisis in Russia is another question

This. When Putin goes, Batka goes. It'll be like another earth-shattering event like the collapse of the USSR but with hopefully less bloodshed, though I wouldn't put that past a few places.

[Guardian G.I.]

The example of former Baltic republics of the USSR and former Warsaw Pact states which become poor deindustrialized sources of cheap menial labour to rich Western countries after joining the EU perfectly shows what will become of Belarus should it jump on the EU bandwagon. We will have to go and clean British, French and German toilets along with the Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Romanians, Bulgarians, Hungarians and others. The joys of freedom can't balance out such massive economic degradation.

Lukashenko's economic policies saved the Belarusian economy during the 1990s - he stopped privatization and shock therapy policies and supported the struggling Belarusian industry and agriculture by financing them and re-establishing supply routes cut off by the collapse of the USSR. As a result, Belarus preserved most of Soviet era industries. It is an industrial powerhouse comparing to the Baltic states, Poland or other former Warsaw Pact countries in the EU: we produce mining dump trucks, ordinary trucks and buses, tractors, various kinds of kitchen appliances (the Gefest factory in Brest), nitrogen and potassium fertilizers (Grodno Azot, Belaruskali), and so on and so forth. Should he fall, the Belarusian economy will degrade just like the economies of our EU member state neighbours after joining the European Union: the factories will either go bankrupt (because the economic ties with Russia and other countries will be severed and Western corporations will prevent our goods from appearing on Western markets, they don't need competition) or get bought by Western companies and then closed and dismantled, the unemployment will rapidly rise, the crime rate will significantly rise, etc. Overall, the situation in Belarus will only get worse.

But hey, we will be truly free, so it doesn't matter, right, guys? Like we haven't got enough opposition newspapers published in the country already.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

The example of former Baltic republics of the USSR and former Warsaw Pact states which become poor deindustrialized sources of cheap menial labour to rich Western countries after joining the EU perfectly shows what will become of Belarus should it jump on the EU bandwagon. We will have to go and clean British, French and German toilets along with the Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Romanians, Bulgarians, Hungarians and others.

a) I love how people with Soviet mentality despise manual labor as if that is something bad. That's understandable because wealth in Soviet Union was determined by anything but hard work
b) I suggest you to look at, for exampe,  1990 GDP of Poland and 2013 GDP of Poland, than look at numbers of "saved Belorussian economy" than talk about "deindustralization" (is that even a word in English? Opera doesn't think so) . Closing of factories that produce crap is a good thing when it is replaced with competitive stuff.

The joys of freedom can't balance out such massive economic degradation.

Refined Soviet mentality. Brilliant, isn't it? Like I was said by one person - "So what I was a slave in USSR? I was well fed*! "
*That means he was allowed to steal, private owners are not that happy when workers take home production\equipment\materials

As a result, Belarus preserved most of Soviet era industries.

Congratulations you produce a lot of crap. What will you do when Russia collapse and stop buying it? Or start producing slightly better crap? Or when they'll demand full annexation threatening to stop buying it?

Should he fall, the Belarusian economy will degrade just like the economies of our EU member state neighbours after joining the European Union

If you think that Polish Economy degraded then: LOL

or get bought by Western companies and then closed and dismantled,

Oh, European and American automotive industries are so afraid of Glorious and Great Minsk Automobile Plant and will buy it just to get it closed! Get real, please.

[Descan]

Is this going to turn into an Eastern European verbal boxing match?

If so, I'm selling tickets.

[Helgoland]

or get bought by Western companies and then closed and dismantled,

Oh, European and American automotive industries are so afraid of Glorious and Great Minsk Automobile Plant and will buy it just to get it closed!

This. A thousand times this.
How many Belarusian products do you see on Western shelves? In fact, how many GDR products (since you talked of keeping the old Soviet industry alive) did you see on FRG shelves? (The shelves themselves are an entirely different matter: IKEA was and is very popular here, and they used to produce on the GDR, but they're a Western company.)
Crap corporations and factories deserve to die, if only to make space for better ones. It never pays off long-term to keep something on life support - if you want a non-ex-Soviet example, look at the stokers on pre-Thatcher British electric trains - or the nation of France

[Ukrainian Ranger]

How I see Guardian G.I.'s logic if we transfer it to a personal level:

" -What? You guys want me to leave tyrant husband and find a proper job? Are you mad?  Leave my husband? He gives me some cash, provides with a shelter and generally there are many much worse persons. Who cares that he beats my from time to time and generally treats me like a slave? As I said there are far worse husbands around. What? You want to say that one can leave without a husband? Nonsense! I'll starve! Freedom worth nothing when you have nothing to eat, you know? Find a proper job? Stupid idea, I'll not be able to compete with skilled workers. Work on not prestigious job and get an education to be able to compete on a prestigious one? Idiots! It's humiliating to wash toilets. Yes it's more humiliating than being abused. And no one will ever teach me! They don't need competitors! If I do like you say I'll wash toilets forever and my life will be miserable "

[Sheb]

More serioulsy, Belarus' economy is weaker than that of any of its EU neighbours. PPP GDP is only two-third of that of Poland or the Baltic state, and nominal GDP is between half and a third.

The thing is they escaped the disruption of the 1990s, keeping their state-controlled economy and their dependance on Russia. Russia absorbs 40% of imports (And a larger fractions of manufactured imports. Those tractors are sold there).

Having them join the EU would be a rehash of the 1990s, although probably less painful. We learned a thing or two after all, and the rest of the continent is much richer, so they can enjoy catch-up growth. Still, I could understand if the Belarussians prefer to refrain from change a bit longer, especially if Putin is willing to keep importing their trash. But this would be a path of stagnation, with the pain simply postponed. Whether it joins the West or not, Belarus need to start exporting, to force its corporations to face the international market and make the kind of improvement needed to stay competitive, or the day will come when even the Russians won't take you tractors. 


P.S. And let us not forget that Russia has demonstrated again and again that they'll embargo countries that dare move Westward (Moldovan wines, Ukrainia chocolate, Tajik nuts...). With Belarus' dependency on Russia, it'd kill the economy.

[LordSlowpoke]

ain't a thing better than jumping on a bandwagon early in the morning eh

Should he fall, the Belarusian economy will degrade just like the economies of our EU member state neighbours after joining the European Union

If you think that Polish Economy degraded then: LOL

what's that? speak up please, i can't hear you over the sound of purchasing parity screaming its heart out

(or the lack of arguments towards it not having degraded, top-tier debating skills there sir i were close to not even touching your post)

i'd be more willing to believe you in any sort of way if i didn't know two things: namely, the nineties effectively eliminated domestic debt, and there's no data from before that time because the powers that be either didn't bother with surveying it or kept it top secret

[Owlbread]

Don't worry Guardian, even with foreign competition Batka produces enough fertiliser every time he opens his bigoted, autocratic mouth to keep your economy going strong. 

[Sheb]

what's that? speak up please, i can't hear you over the sound of purchasing parity screaming its heart out

(or the lack of arguments towards it not having degraded, top-tier debating skills there sir i were close to not even touching your post)

No one said the 90's weren't a rough spot. Still, as I said even at PPP the baltic state an poland have a stronger economy, less exposed to the whim of Putin.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

LordSlowpoke
Your post confused me so much...

OK, there are facts. GDP per capita of Baltic countries and Poland roughly equal to ones that Russia has and noticeably higher then Belorussian one
You claim that GDP per capita wasn't measured correctly during USSR time and is unknown... Ok. then current situation can mean several things:

A) In 1980 Baltic states had  higher GDP per capita than Russia
A.1 Russian GDP per capita increased, Baltic GDP per capita decreased
A.2 Both GDP per capita increased but Russian Increased more
A.3 Both GDP per capita Decreased but Baltic Decreased more

B) In 1980 Baltic states had  lower GDP per capita than Russia
B.1 Russian GDP per capita decreased, Baltic GDP per capita increased
B.2 Both GDP per capita increased but Baltic Increased more
B.3 Both GDP per capita Decreased but Russian Decreased more

C) In 1980 Baltic states had  the same GDP per capita as Russia
C.1: Both GDP per capita increased equally
C.2: Both GDP per capita decreased equally


Now, please, give me some proofs that Baltic states, that had\have almost no mineral deposits and almost no power generation had higher GDP per capita than Russia and Belarus. Only then claim that stupid Baltic states degraded because they went to EU unlike Batka's prosperous kingdom that saved his Glorious and Great Minsk Automobile Plant

[10ebbor10]

As far as I can see, the Belarian rubble inflated by 50% in recent years, and most of their income was dependent on the resale of subsidized Russian oil. (Ie, Russia sells oil at a discount, Belarus reprocesses, and then sells).

Truly, with those statistics they stand no chance at being even considered for EU membership. After all, what was denied here was a EU assistence and cooperation program, not a membership application.

[Another]

I think I'll contribute my opinion on Belarus from the East.

While I disagree with Guardian on several basic issues (e.g. I would never let either Stalin or Putin on my avatar, even as a joke; and I heard about some cases where "bat'ka" stole whole businesses for himself or his sons under threats/unofficial executions) - Belarus economy does not seem that bad. (Could probably have been better under more competent regulations.)

There is at large unrestricted import of all kinds of goods into Russia from all over the world. For obvious reasons it is dominated by the cheapest stuff.  Some Belarus goods like textile and food have a solid reputation here when compared by quality to price ratio to both Chinese and Italian. Russia does not depend on Belarus in heavy construction equipment, yet when some businesses decide to buy - they choose Caterpillar or whatever Russian or European but some choose that Minsk factory. That preferential trade inside the Customs Union helps Belarus but it would not totally kill it's industry to trade on common WTO rules. Even without Lukashenko's authoritarianism Belarus would be too far socialist to my taste but at least it is less so than USSR was.

On the subject of Ukraine - of course EU integration is the future. In the next few years though the average standard of life could have taken a heavy hit if Ukraine joined now on the proposed conditions. In part - because some socially significant large businesses (like Wales coal industry for different reasons) would immediately collapse due to European concurrency and in large parts - because of severing some economic ties with Russia.

Now - would you really blame Russia for acting selfishly and doing what is best (short term) for its own economy? Ideally I would like to see talks between EU, Ukraine, Russia and maybe Kazakhstan and Belarus to find a compromise way to gradually join EU (first Ukraine, then - Russia, whether Belarus or Kazakhstan would even want to fully join is an open question) without sudden social shocks and to everyone's satisfaction. I am sure that such agreement could theoretically be reached if all parties had only the best strategic interests of their countries in mind. Don't bother crushing this dream - I know that it is unrealistic.

P.S. Graph of GDP per capita in all relevant countries. Unemployment levels are also very significant for average person's quality of life. Belarus official values are suspicious but here are the rest.

[10ebbor10]

Point is, the idea is not that Belarian* products are crap, the point is that the majority of their industrial base dates back to the Sovjet era. It wasn't high tech when it was build, and no significant improvements have been made in the mean time. The result is an outdated, energy-inefficient and ultimately non-competitive industry.

The only thing that keeps these old factories running is that the Russian governement provides oil at a hefty discount, thereby lowering the energy costs enough so that the factories can keep running a profit. This situation isn't going to last, as the Russian governement stopped oil subsidies once in the last few years (2011-2012) and will do it again in the future.

As for joint talks about gradually joining the Union. The eastern Partnership link was supposed to do that.


*Is this a word?