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[MonkeyHead]

So, how does the apparent shooting down of a civvy aircraft by the pro-Russian separatists change things? Does it provide UN/NATO with a mandate for some kind of intervention? If so, of what nature? Or is Russia still the elephant in the room, despite the clear hit to credibility this is going to offer them?

[smjjames]

I wouldn't really trust Moscow to be truthful about what they find in the tape recorders. I say send them to someone who has absolutely no stake in the politics and can be trusted by both sides. Canada maybe?

As for sending it to Malaysia, I dunno. They bungled their own investigation.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

..or malaysia.

[mainiac]

Ah yes, naturally when a Malaysian flight is destroyed in Ukrainian territory the place to send the evidence is Russia.  You know it will be safe there.  Send it somewhere else and some reckless person might record or investigate it.

One other thing I'm wondering is what the world's reaction to this is gonna be.

I'd be surprised to see them do more then demand that the separatists give up their anti-air weapons and then wash their hands of it.  Maybe Malaysia will be able to get a settlement through international arbitration and spare Russia then embarrassment of the court case.  More sanctions naturally but I doubt this will push Europe to the point of adopting a comprehensive plan on reducing natural gas imports rather then ad hoc financial targeting.

[smjjames]

Well, Malaysia has launched their own investigation and they don't have to search an ocean for the recorders this time.

[palsch]

As for sending it to Malaysia, I dunno. They bungled their own investigation.

It's a matter of getting any recordings to a party that doesn't have a vested interest in getting a particular result. Malaysia have a right to the recordings, which is why I suggested them. Denying them access would be harder, and it keeps them out of the hands of either Moscow or Kiev. Even if you can trust one of those two governments, you shouldn't need to and need to convince those who don't.

Also hearing some scepticism over whether they would have found/recognised the black boxes.

I think there are two big questions that will change how this effects things;

1) How reliably can this be tied to the rebels? If certainty can be gained then it could be a game changer as to Russia support and international pressure.

2) Can the Buk itself be traced to Russia? It's entirely possible it was a captured Ukrainian vehicle, but if it could be traced to Russia then that would (or should) trigger harsh sanctions and action.

[smjjames]

The thing though is that while Russia has experience, they can't be fully trusted to be truthful (and maybe alter the recordings, but I don't think they'd go that far), and the Ukrainians probably don't have the experience and Russia and the rebels wouldn't trust them either.

I know Russia wouldn't really want the US to have it, but the FAA is really non-political and playing politics would risk their reputation.

Malaysia has the right to have the recordings, yes, but I don't know about experience wise.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skL_1RcLRCA&feature=youtu.be

Touted recording of rebels bragging about shooting down some sort of aircraft, but I'm always skeptical of them.

[mainiac]

If I had known to google "how many buk systems does ukraine have" a couple days ago it would be easy to find out and estimate the difficulty of tracking a given system.   Today it's hopeless to try and google website with that information in the midst of all the news articles.  It's like the cybernetic part of my brain has been removed.

[smjjames]

You could try searching things from before today?

Edit: Did a quick search myself using a date range from January 2000 and three days ago:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces Wiki estimates 60

Can't find any other estimates and the actual number is probably classified.

[palsch]

If I had known to google "how many buk systems does ukraine have" a couple days ago it would be easy to find out and estimate the difficulty of tracking a given system.   Today it's hopeless to try and google website with that information in the midst of all the news articles.  It's like the cybernetic part of my brain has been removed.

Google trick; use the search tools to set a date range. Leave the start date blank and make the end date yesterday. That will cut out any of today's news articles. It's invaluable for background research in these situations.

EDIT: This article suggests there were ~40 in Crimea when it fell, although it's not clear about their status. That's also including the shorter range Tor launchers which couldn't have reached this altitude, and probably not that of the previously downed transport either. Voice of Russia claimed that more than 20 Buk crews and vehicles defected.

[Descan]

I know there's a whole plethora of terms you can put in your google searches to refine it, like "site:[specific website]", but is it possible to narrow it by date like that? Or at least to exclude any news?

Edit: So it is~

[Lav]

Technically, the airplane could be downed by either Kiev or separatists. Separatists did capture a base with a couple non-functional Buk's, and it is hypothetically possible that they managed to fix at least one of them, and Boeing was downed in the area where separatist positions are under continuous air attacks from Kiev forces. Of course, Kiev has much more Buk's in working order in the area of conflict, and separatists do have a captured Su-25 which they (according to recent reports) managed to take to the air, and Ukrainian air defence does have experience in downing civilian airliners. So accidental attack from either side is possible.

Right now, the only sensible thing to do is wait. Separatists reported that they found the recorders and plan to give them to Russia. Moscow has already confirmed that once it has the recorders, they're being passed to international commission.

[mainiac]

Thanks guys.

With only 40-60 or less of those in Ukraine before this whole mess it's probably a good bet they can either track the vehicle that fired this or show that it came from Russia and it's larger pool of vehicles.  Or maybe Belarus wants to take the rap?

... or we could be like good little Russians and pretend that the matter is in doubt that Separatists had vehicles that they were already claiming kills with.  Christ on a cracker, I thought republicans were bad.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

Technically, the airplane could be downed by either Kiev or separatists. Separatists did capture a base with a couple non-functional Buk's, and it is hypothetically possible that they managed to fix at least one of them, and Boeing was downed in the area where separatist positions are under continuous air attacks from Kiev forces. Of course, Kiev has much more Buk's in working order in the area of conflict, and separatists do have a captured Su-25 which they (according to recent reports) managed to take to the air, and Ukrainian air defence does have experience in downing civilian airliners. So accidental attack from either side is possible.

Right now, the only sensible thing to do is wait. Separatists reported that they found the recorders and plan to give them to Russia. Moscow has already confirmed that once it has the recorders, they're being passed to international commission.

Why is this post deleted now? If there's nothing to hide, I wonder why the terrorists would delete a post bragging about a toy they have that can shoot down such airliners.

Maybe it's because it doesn't jive with the iron curtain's propaganda and upcoming lies about this murder of civilians by Russian terrorists..