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Author Topic: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!  (Read 1775138 times)

Baffler

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18960 on: July 30, 2015, 11:58:15 am »

Even with a Republican president, I doubt much would happen. There's been difficulty conjuring the political will to fight ISIS, and they're, well, ISIS.
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nenjin

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18961 on: July 30, 2015, 12:04:53 pm »

Even with a Republican president, I doubt much would happen. There's been difficulty conjuring the political will to fight ISIS, and they're, well, ISIS.

A couple differences exist though:

1. ISIS doesn't have a visible leader who the media can use to visibly illustrate what's so "evil" about them. Putin, on the other hand, has become a poster boy for Russia today.

2. Russia is a nation state, unlike ISIS. While you would think that would make us LESS likely to start a war with them, in the American view, I think it's actually easier to rally support around attacking a country. Americans like clearly defined contests, and there's no contest more engrained in the American popular psyche than US v. Russia.

I think it's unlikely to happen, but not impossible I'd say. All it would take is Russia really thumbing its nose at the US to get the electorate leaning toward war, and a single incident of exchanging fire to ignite the powder keg of American war hysteria.
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Sergarr

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18962 on: July 30, 2015, 12:35:55 pm »

It's absolutely impossible, though. It would take US government and people suddenly becoming idiots who forget about existence of thousands of city-killer devices with global reach to even make it "unlikely", because Russia is still a gigantic country with population many times that of Iraq, and everyone in USA (hopefully) remembers how well that one has went.
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Erkki

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18963 on: July 30, 2015, 12:43:08 pm »

US and her allies dont really need to even fire shots to beat Russia to the ground should the political will to do that arise. Theres some serious self-deception going around the people who think US is somehow Russia's rival and counter balance or something on even terms.

US + EU + NATO vs. Russia, or even just US vs. Russia alone, is a fair match only in nukes: should they be used, everybody loses.
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SirQuiamus

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18964 on: July 30, 2015, 12:47:38 pm »

It's absolutely impossible, though. It would take US government and people suddenly becoming idiots who forget about existence of thousands of city-killer devices with global reach...

When everyone in Trumpmerica™ goes FullTrump™, who knows what will happen...
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Sergarr

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18965 on: July 30, 2015, 12:49:36 pm »

US and her allies dont really need to even fire shots to beat Russia to the ground should the political will to do that arise.
No. One can't simply "beat Russia to the ground" without firing shots. If it was possible, then Iran would not be a regional power as it is.

And this "political will" thing, what is it? Hard men making hard decision while hard? This line of thought is why torture is still being used to interrogate people in places like Guantanamo, even though it has been long proven that it's highly ineffective as information-gathering method and it's only real purpose is to make the interrogator "feel good".
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Helgoland

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18966 on: July 30, 2015, 12:54:18 pm »

Well, Europe could stop buying oil and gas from Russia. It would hurt both sides, but it would hurt Russia much, much more. The result would probably not be Russia being 'beat to the ground', but it would be fairly devastating - and non-violent.

@Political will: It's the difference between Chamberlain and Churchill. It's not sufficient for success at all, but it is very much necessary.
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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18967 on: July 30, 2015, 01:04:52 pm »

Kicking Russia out of SWIFT. Freezing all assets in allied countries. Stopping gas and oil(getting them from US, middle east etc. at higher price instead). Freezing all or most of the trade in general; they cant even feed themselves. Theres advantages to not being a low GDP per capita continental nation reliant on energy exports without significant influence on world trade (unlike NATO members together and their allies).

Where do you guys think Putin will be using Russia's newly inflated, unsustainable to keep up in long term, military?
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Sergarr

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18968 on: July 30, 2015, 01:07:17 pm »

Freezing all or most of the trade in general; they cant even feed themselves.
Okay please explain to me how are you going to "freeze" Russian trade with China.
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Helgoland

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18969 on: July 30, 2015, 01:10:05 pm »

There's no need to do that. This is about short-term effects, not long-term ones, and the European part of Russia's imports is much bigger than the Chinese one.
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Sergarr

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18970 on: July 30, 2015, 01:17:06 pm »

There's no need to do that. This is about short-term effects, not long-term ones, and the European part of Russia's imports is much bigger than the Chinese one.
This is about short-term effects? I thought it was about "beating Russia to the ground without firing any shots". Have I missed anything? When did the goalpost shift happened?
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Erkki

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18971 on: July 30, 2015, 01:19:59 pm »

There's no need to do that. This is about short-term effects, not long-term ones, and the European part of Russia's imports is much bigger than the Chinese one.
This is about short-term effects? I thought it was about "beating Russia to the ground without firing any shots". Have I missed anything? When did the goalpost shift happened?

Russia first needs the capacity to actually exports its products and import its imports to and from China in at least comparable volumes. Russian population and infrastructure is not exactly on Chinese border.

While that is being built we could see the man in Kremlin change a couple of times...

edit: and doesnt Russia already tackle to stop over 4% annual GDP fall? Keep producing guns...
« Last Edit: July 30, 2015, 01:22:53 pm by Erkki »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18972 on: July 30, 2015, 03:09:17 pm »

Why Russians are so sure that China can't be persuaded to join sanctions? Should EU and USA offer China something more valuable than trade with Russia, they will agree.
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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18973 on: July 30, 2015, 04:06:42 pm »

Kicking Russia out of SWIFT. Freezing all assets in allied countries.
Not going to happen. In fact, when the Russian sanctions came about, it didn't happen. The US stopped trading with Russia, but its trade with Russia was insignificant. The EU was too in bed with Russia to get out.

Stopping gas and oil(getting them from US, middle east etc. at higher price instead).
While I am in favour of making Europe dependent on North Sea gas, there is not enough and most of Europe does not want to go for the more expensive options.

Freezing all or most of the trade in general; they cant even feed themselves.
Yeah and if the US waved a magical wand killing all Russians then Russia would die; all trade by US allies would just enter Russia through a middleman like Serbia, Greece, Belarus, Iran, China, Krygyzstan or any other nation that happens to share any links with the vast nation. And that's assuming everyone sticks to the embargo, and doesn't just use loopholes to continue profit seeking. From the moment international commerce was born, from the moment Napoleon accidentally made Britain stronger with his failed continental blockade to the moment the US accidentally created massive Chinese companies with their own restrictions, countries have been accidentally making their rivals self-reliant and ever more powerful. If you want a placid Russia you want one whose weapons are German, whose cars are Japanese and whose food is Ukrainian. That or fund separatists within Russia, that would also work without risking WWIII too much compared to direct warfare.

Theres advantages to not being a low GDP per capita continental nation reliant on energy exports without significant influence on world trade (unlike NATO members together and their allies).
Where do you guys think Putin will be using Russia's newly inflated, unsustainable to keep up in long term, military?
It is not for need of a military to use it, but to have it is often enough. Appear big, strong and capable, and people will respect you for your appearances irregardless of actual capabilities. This will never be a problem because your actual capabilities will never be tested.

Why Russians are so sure that China can't be persuaded to join sanctions? Should EU and USA offer China something more valuable than trade with Russia, they will agree.
Because Russia is far weaker than the European or American nations. China has never taken any Western carrots over Russian carrots because it'd rather not have an even stronger West than a weaker Russia surrounding it. Should there come a time where Western civilization has finally fallen low enough that China's priority in rebuilding the silk road would enrich it more than Russia's cooperation, I don't doubt that China would enrich herself and economically destroy Russia in the East.

mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18974 on: July 30, 2015, 06:04:51 pm »

Doesn't most Russian trade with China go through Denmark?
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