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[miljan]

Sergarr, a Rosneft bankrupty would be terrible for the internal audience.

Miljan: You're deliberately using a very low starting point. It's like praising Obama because things aren't as bad as in 2008.

What? What low starting point? if you dont know there is only one starting point, so there is nothing deliberately about it . The dude is on power from 1999. He was on power in 2008 also. Unfortunately he was not on power in 1990, so we can only use the data we have for this last 15 years he is.

[Mr. Strange]

It'd also be a rather big PR failure for the Kremlin.

Of course, Rosneft's leadership was ringing this alarm bell the whole time.

>implying Kremlin has any PR to lose after annexing Crimea

That's a good one.

Well, they could lose face in front of russian voters. What ever would Putin do if he can't get enough votes to be re-elected? 

[Mictlantecuhtli]

1.2 trillion is something like 25 billions in dollars

~42, IIRC. And I'm not sure whether the debt is denominated in USD or Rubles. If it's USD the real number to repay is higher now and is terrible news for Rosneft. For their sake it's got to be in rubles or else any refinancing will probably destroy their credit lines long term. There's rumors they will get 'cash advances' [loans] from Chinese financiers, but if that isn't enough the Kremlin is the only entity that can help them.

[ChairmanPoo]

1.2 trillion is something like 25 billions in dollars

Why make a trillion when we could make... billions?

[Sheb]

miljan: And Obama was in power since 2008. My point is that he came during a period of such shittiness that simple reversal to the mean would explain a lot, no matter who was in power. Same with Obama: the economy was bound to improve after the crisis pretty much no matter what he did.

To be honest, things did and do improve in Russia. I just looked at World Bank data, and it has increased per capita GNI faster than Estonia or Georgia, who are common reform poster boys. It would be interesting to have an idea of the oil sector's importance in there, but we shouldn't underestimate Russia too much.


Per Capita GNI, 2004=100.

[mainiac]

Oh I thought he meant France.

30 years from now or so France will be the dominant nation in the EU and the EU will still most likely be the world's largest economy.  Totally not in jest.  Nope.  Vive la France.

Well, they could lose face in front of russian voters. What ever would Putin do if he can't get enough votes to be re-elected? 

Lose office most likely.  He's an autocrat not a totalitarian dictator.  He just uses a different playbook to win elections not eliminate the elections entirely.  If free and fair elections were held tomorrow Putin would win quite comfortably.  If opposition parties were allowed to operate freely for a few years and then free and fair elections were held it would be up in the aair.

[XXSockXX]

30 years from now or so France will be the dominant nation in the EU and the EU will still most likely be the world's largest economy.  Totally not in jest.  Nope.  Vive la France.

I'm curious what brings you to that conclusion. Demographics maybe? Our economist seem to think that France is at risk of getting the same problems as the Southern EU countries. At least their economic and political climate isn't that great currently and has been getting worse for a while now. They will probably be the largest EU country population-wise in some decades, but they have a lot of social tension too.

[mainiac]

France is quite likely to pass Germany in working age population and their per capita productivity will be roughly equal.  30 years down the road europe will be out of this funk.  The rest of the world is and it's only the ECB having head in ass syndrome that keeps europe depressed.

[Phmcw]

Putin keep posturing. At this rate he'll get his country locked out of the SWIFT network. That would mean the end of Russia's economy.

[scriver]

I'm being paywalled. Can you quote it?

[Phmcw]

Getting paywalled too now Oo

Found some quote:

   

More than two dozen Russian military aircraft, including six nuclear bombers, have conducted “significant military manoeuvres” on the edges of Nato and European airspace in the past 24 hours

    The most significant intercept on Wednesday occurred in the North Sea. A force of eight Russian aircraft, including four Tu-95 long-range strategic nuclear bombers and four refuelling aircraft, were detected flying in formation at about 3am central European time flying from mainland Russia over the Norwegian Sea.

The portugeses claim that their airspace was violated.


I quote

The General Staff of the Armed Forces confirms that on the morning of October 29, two unidentified airspace under the responsibility Portuguese aircraft were detected.

Means of warning provided were triggered in such situations in the context of NATO, having two F-16 fighters Portuguese identified two Russian military aircraft, who handed out of the airspace under national responsibility.

The media driven fulfilled their mission, meeting the situation to be monitored in the framework of NATO.

[mainiac]

At what point do we conclude it isn't posturing for jingoism at home and he's actually just losing his common sense?

[smjjames]

I think he started losing his common sense long ago.

While the whole thing smacks of the Cold War, I'm pretty sure that the Soviets didn't do that with their long range nuclear bombers since that would be a pretty clear provocation.

Really though, stuff like jets or surveillance planes I'd get, but what the heck is he trying to do by having his nuclear bombers buzz the edges of NATO and European airspace? In a previous era, that would have sent everybody into the highest alerts because of how provocative such a move would be.

[Erkki]

text=]The portugeses claim that their airspace was violated.

Portugal itself? I thought it was just Portiguese F-16s that are stationed in the Baltics. They've chased Russian planes weekly for 3 months or so now.

[BlindKitty]

http://fra.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/data-and-maps/violence-against-women-survey

EU concludes that catoNazi Poland is one of the best places to live if you are a woman and don't want to be molested and/or abused. And who hits 80% rate of woman being molested? Sweden. Why do I have the feeling that our way seems to be better?