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[Sergarr]

And then we'll return to the old 19th century system of individual situational alliances that are quickly formed and quickly terminated.

yay for progress

[LordSlowpoke]

19th century?

m8 situational alliances are a thing from before civilizations became one

still waiting on sikorski though

[Sheb]

Interestingly, both incidents could be interpreted as armed attacks under article 5, given a liberal interpretation. I regard this as further proof that Russia is prodding NATO.

[smjjames]

I think you mean incidents, not accidents Sheb?

And yeah, if Russian agents start showing up or troops start showing up, then yeah NATO had better respond. Putin can't really use the excuse of ethnic Russians in danger in the baltics (well, he could, but it'd be even flimsier, plus re-using the same excuse), so he could try to manufacture a reason.

[Sheb]

Well, you have all those Russians denied citizenships in the Baltics... Plus, the Baltic states don't have a single Russian-language channel AFAIK: the Russians there have been reliant on Russian TV for news, they could very well rise and thus put themselves in danger.

[miljan]

Well, you have all those Russians denied citizenships in the Baltics... Plus, the Baltic states don't have a single Russian-language channel AFAIK: the Russians there have been reliant on Russian TV for news, they could very well rise and thus put themselves in danger.

Don't worry it will not happen. Russia is not interested in baltic states. Its interested in ex soviet states that are not in nato yet and that may change their stance (and also are at their border).

[Sheb]

Why? Why those pointless provocations, the speeches about oppressed minorities in the Baltic etc etc otherwise?

[miljan]

Why? Why those pointless provocations, the speeches about oppressed minorities in the Baltic etc etc otherwise?

Because relationship are not great in the last few months and you will see different provocations from start of ukraine crisis.  If a countries like north korea seized a USA cargo ship , it doesnt mean it is testing and preparing to invade USA. People are really getting paranoid, is it because of west medias overblowing things or something else I dont know.

[smjjames]

The thing with the Estonian intelligence officer (or minister) seemed to be legit, not sure. The detaining the fishing boat seems pointless unless they normally enforce that kind of thing with crossing their territorial waters.

[andrea]

Or possibly it is just misdirection. Do noteworthy but ultimately pointless stuff there to get everyone's attention and then do whatever he really wants to do.

Or maybe he just want to get more information about NATO before deciding what he can/will do.

[miljan]

The thing with the Estonian intelligence officer (or minister) seemed to be legit, not sure. The detaining the fishing boat seems pointless unless they normally enforce that kind of thing with crossing their territorial waters.

I did not know anything about that, but any news why was he arrested? Was he in russia/ukraine at some point?

[WarRoot]

Seriously where are these countries? Unless you count people who became soldiers as part of compulsory drafting, and leaving as soon as possible, I have a hard time believing this.

Well of the 7 presidents France has elected since WWII, 5 of them have front line combat experience.
Every British Prime Minister from Churchill until Thatcher had combat experience except for Alec Douglass-Home who volunteered but was medically ineligible.
Canada had 3 vets as prime minister in a row.
Ireland had about 5 prime ministers in a row who were military men until their history of neutrality exhausted their supply.

Those are just presidents or prime ministers, I was talking about the bulk of the reps, and I doubt that their only achievement were exceptional military performance. I mean first one on Timoshenko's list is the pilot woman who is currently imprisoned by Russia...

[Sheb]

The fishing boat was never in Russia's territorial waters. It is claimed it was briefly (less than 1 hour) within Russia's EEZ, which are part of international waters (all ships have a right to be there), but where Russia control the natural resources (Fish for example). Russia claims the boat was fishing Russian fish, which is a bit ridiculous given the small time the Lithuanian boat spent in the Russian EEZ.

The ship was boarded and the crew sent to Russia by helicopter after refusing to go to Murmansk. It should be noted that this happended outside Russia's EEZ, where they have no juridiction whatsoever.

As for the Estonian intelligence agent, Russia claims he was in Russia, Estonia (somewhat more convincingly) that he was in Estonia. Estonian border guards and their Russian counterpart noticed the fighting on the Estonian side of the border, near a border crossing: Russian special forces used radio-jamming equipment and smoke bombs to capture the Estonian guy.

Also, if NK seized a US ship it wouldn't mean that they would be ready to invade. But a) NK hasn't invaded two of its neighbours over the last 6 years. b) NK isn't a huge country bordering the tiny USA, with historical control over the US and a significant Korean minority there which it vowed to protect. c) Russia isn't going to invade anyway, they'll again use salami tactics, to see what they can get with doing. We won't see the Russian army parading on the streets of Vilnius, but "little green men"? Why not?

[mainiac]

Those are just presidents or prime ministers, I was talking about the bulk of the reps, and I doubt that their only achievement were exceptional military performance.

I gave you what you can expect from a forum post.  If you want a peer reviewed political science article then go to jstor.

[Guardian G.I.]

Meanwhile in Ukraine, Donetsk was shaken up by a massive explosion. It occurred this morning at a local explosives factory: a warehouse with approximately 12 tons of RDX has blown up, destroying nearby factory buildings and breaking windows in a 2 kilometre radius. DNR sources claim that the warehouse was hit by several Ukrainian missiles.

Spoiler: Photos (click to show/hide)

Videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dcQNp7u3X8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au9eTc0Fbkw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KoJo1tDq_k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwFpmDMloTg (trigger warning: totalitarian undemocratic YT channel)