@PM: See Haspen's above post, may be good to replenish that.
@Haspen: Anja needs to use that on everyone she can. 'Cause that's nice.
MISSION GAINED: Bishop Death
Alexander moves north one step.
Seyena moves to where Alexander was, doubles Bishop with steel javelin and moves back to current position.
DAMAGE: 25 - 13 = 12 x 2 = 24
DAMAGE RECEIVED IN TURN: 34 - 23 - 10 = 1
CHANCE TO HIT: 120 - 51 = 69% (Would be out of range of Valor and his CHA/SUPPORT
CHANCE TO BE HIT IN TURN: 137 - 53 = 84%
BISHOP'S HEALTH LEFT AFTER ATTACK: 2xMiss: 38, 1xMiss: 26, 0xMiss: 14
Olison moves to where Alexander/Seyena was, finishes job with his ranged weapon of choice (suggested Francisca due to proximity of Sentinel and warrior.)
DAMAGE: 29 - 13 = 16 x 2 = 32
DAMAGE RECEIVED IN TURN: 34 - 8 = 26
CHANCE TO HIT: 106 - 51 = 55% (Out of range of Valor and his CHA/SUPPORT)
CHANCE TO BE HIT IN TURN: 137 - (57 - 15) = 95%
BISHOP'S HEALTH LEFT AFTER ATTACK (S == Seyena): 2xMiss: 38, 1xMiss: 22, 0xMiss: 6
OPTIMAL RESULTS:
Seyena hits with both of her attacks
Olison hits with his first attack
Rough estimate of this happen: 26.1855%
Not sure if I suggest this, but its entirely possible. Alexander would need to move up, which puts Anja in danger, and it requires passing a 1/4 chance for the optimal result of happening. The chance rises dramatically if Valor is in range of the two (extra 25 percent chance of Seyena hitting, 20 for Olison), but that puts a gap in the northern defenses. Which is bad. And impossible as he's already moved.
If Seyena doesn't have anything better to do however, attacking the bishop might be nice. But that requires Alexander moving north, which shifts things around for the southern entrance worryingly. I expect the warrior will probably try to take a pot shot at Anja, but the warriors hit chance is as follows:
HIT: 108 - 72 - 15(Sword*) - 15(PerSki) - 5(Support) = 1% or 16% if her weapon isn't out
*Depends on if Haspen rules that dance/song stuff counts as staffs for the rule that they can auto-equip a weapon for the combat duration, ala FE4.