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Derick the Swordmaster of Doom

Gregor the Tanky Stab-Sentinel

[Sirus]

Well, I guess for this turn we're going with

The Continue Heal Dancing Plan:
Seyena->7,7->Heal Edwin
Riven->Concoction Alex
Derick->Trade Concoction from Riven->Concoction Sal
Gregor->Vulnerary Someone OR Kill Elite Lancer

And yes, the Elite Lancer will die. One less to worry about.

[CrimsonEon]

Then we'll go with the heal plan.

Also I asked Haspen earlier in the thread, killing Arvis will in fact end the chapter.

[IronyOwl]

TBH I think we should have gone with the Kill Plan, but healing is usually the safer bet. Not sure why I think we should just go for it this time.

[Blade Master Model 42]

I just don't feel that lucky today so I'm going to have to say no, but if you guys think that it really is best to go through with trying to kill him, then I'll let you give it a shot.

Okay, that is saying two completely different things there.

Anybody feel like mathamancying us a hard numerical probability that Arvis will die if Derick attacks him?

TBH I think we should have gone with the Kill Plan, but healing is usually the safer bet. Not sure why I think we should just go for it this time.

Because it has a strong chance of succeeding. That said, the price of the unlikely failure is steep.

[Sirus]

Hopefully we can give the kill plan a shot next turn. We're slowly whittling the enemy numbers down, and with all of our combined bonuses and that fact that we tend towards being Eva-heavy the RNG has to smile on us sooner or later.

[Sirus]

Irony, could you please change your order to "trade concoction back, then heal Alex"? I would not put it past Haspen to declare that you wasted a turn trying to heal with an item you no longer had :I

[CrimsonEon]

Hopefully we can give the kill plan a shot next turn. We're slowly whittling the enemy numbers down, and with all of our combined bonuses and that fact that we tend towards being Eva-heavy the RNG has to smile on us sooner or later.

The RNG never smiles. It only scowls and delivers harsh judgement to those it does not like. We just need to hope it's directed at the enemy.

That said-
CE: Pray

[Blade Master Model 42]

I dunno about that last part. The Gambler's Fallacy has been shitting all over me this map. More to the point, Derick is likely to be attacked in the next turn- He's one of our best methods of ending Arvis, and if he does drop, that's probably another turns delay in finishing him off. Next turn is going to be a whole new kettle of fish- A kettle of dying, lacerated fish.

[IronyOwl]

Irony, could you please change your order to "trade concoction back, then heal Alex"? I would not put it past Haspen to declare that you wasted a turn trying to heal with an item you no longer had :I

Eugh, fine.

[Powder Miner]

Bolstering our numbers like this will honestly allow us to just bumrush Arvis.
Wait, uh, Riven has 2 Concoctions.
You're going to prevent Derick from healing Salvatore.

[CrimsonEon]

Wait, uh, Riven has 2 Concoctions.
You're going to prevent Derick from healing Salvatore.

...How? The concoction is going from Riven to Derick, being used, then back to Riven again with one use left which Riven will use. Trading is a free action.

[Powder Miner]

...Ohhhh. See, I thought they were two separate concoctions.

[Blade Master Model 42]

...Ohhhh. See, I thought they were two separate concoctions.

Being able to either split or consolidate healing items would be pretty rad.

[Culise]

I just don't feel that lucky today so I'm going to have to say no, but if you guys think that it really is best to go through with trying to kill him, then I'll let you give it a shot.

Okay, that is saying two completely different things there.

Anybody feel like mathamancying us a hard numerical probability that Arvis will die if Derick attacks him?

TBH I think we should have gone with the Kill Plan, but healing is usually the safer bet. Not sure why I think we should just go for it this time.

Because it has a strong chance of succeeding. That said, the price of the unlikely failure is steep.

I think a back-of-napkin calc was already done earlier in the thread that pretty much covered it well enough, but why not?  Derick's best weapon is the Killing Edge, with an AS of 33 and a base Hit rate of 120, along with a Crit rate of 49 when including his class-specific skill.  Arvis, by contrast, has a DEF of 14, an Evade of 50, and a Luck of 10.  Respectively, their HP are sitting at 2 and 40.  Should Derick have swung, he would have had a 70% hit rate for 19 damage, at a 39% chance to crit, and as any attempt to double would still deal 38 damage minimum even if he hits both times, he would need to crit at least once.  The counterattack would have pitted his 63 Evade against Arvis's 125 Hit rate, for a 62% hit rate. 

Chance of Derick knocking out Arvis alone:
>Hit first shot, critical: 27.3%
>Hit first shot, fail critical: 42.7%
>>Avoid counter-attack (38% chance), retaliate successfully, and crit: 10.4% (assuming prereq occurs)

So, if I have it right...
Odds of knocking Arvis out: 31.7%
Odds of Derick getting knocked out by bolt-inna-face: 45.1%

So, yeah. 

[Xanmyral]

But Arvis has fortune.