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Ted Cruz

7 (6.5%)

Rick Santorum

16 (14.8%)

Michelle Bachmann

13 (12%)

Chris Christie

23 (21.3%)

Rand Paul

49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107

[Helgoland]

IIRC, the federal minimum wage would be $27 today, if kept pace with both productivity increase and inflation.

How is productivity increase and inflation calculated in that figure? Because there's a lot you can alter by fiddling with the definitions...

[GlyphGryph]

I'm not opposed to a minimum wage of $15, mind you. The economy can certainly bear it (it might be hard on low-wage startups, but the benefits will outweigh the costs). No, I'm questioning the wisdom of Seattle doing it when it's the only jurisdiction to do so, because that will be an incentive for low-margin companies to start leaving town.

I understand what you are getting at. I think you'd be correct, under a great many situations. I don't think it will hold true for Seattle. Previous minimum wage increases in other cities haven't resulted in corporate flight, and I don't think it will happen here either.

[Descan]

Besides, calculating 1700 hours per year (average American) times 15$ an hour is only $25,500. Barely above the poverty line. AND this is in Seattle, i.e. expensive city to live in.

[mainiac]

I'm skeptical, in all honesty. A higher minimum wage would definitely be a good thing, but a lot of it would impact jobs like retail checkout drones who haven't really been seeing the productivity gains of the last few decades,

I'm waaaaay late to the party here but I'd say you have this dead wrong.  Retail is where we've seen the strongest gains in productivity in the past few decades.  The 80s saw the rise of just-in-time production practices spreading from heavy industrial orders to retail goods.  This might not seem like a retail productivity issue but it increases the value addition of retail workers and thus leads to productivity gains.  Going forward we see the emergence of agile inventory management due to computerization leading to fewer retail workers being able to handle a larger variety of goods.  At the same time we see the retail sector consolidate which is bad news bears for mom and pop stores but does mean higher retail productivity.  And now automation is really changing the face of retail from human to robot.  And this is taking place during a time of globalization and historically low costs for long distance freight, further increasing value addition.

[FearfulJesuit]

Huh.

I'd still like to see some numbers on productivity gains over the last few decades by sector. My hunch is that some of the biggest gains have been made in above-minimum (even if only $11 or $12 an hour) office work where computers have replaced giant cabinets of paperwork, while jobs like fry cooks and cashiers haven't really seen much in the way of productivity gains by their very nature. But that is just a hunch, and I would prefer to see some statistics before I make a verdict.

In other news, the GOP Mississippi Senate primary is too close to call, and there will be a runoff race late this month.

One county had not reported its results because the election commissioner had gone to bed.

I love this country.

[SalmonGod]

IIRC, the federal minimum wage would be $27 today, if kept pace with both productivity increase and inflation.

How is productivity increase and inflation calculated in that figure? Because there's a lot you can alter by fiddling with the definitions...

No clue.  Just something I've seen cited a few places before.

[Lord Shonus]

Besides, calculating 1700 hours per year (average American) times 15$ an hour is only $25,500. Barely above the poverty line. AND this is in Seattle, i.e. expensive city to live in.

The average you used is nearly worthless in this context because virtually nobody actually works that figure, which is amost exactly between conventional full time and part time work. Full time work (5 days a week, 8 hours a day for a total of 40 hours/week) results in gross figures $26,000/year at $12.50 and $31,200 at $15.00. Part time workers would instead make 13,000 and $16,600. These are better figures to base assumptions on because between %75 and %90 of American adults will average to those two points over a year, taking sick days and overtime into account.

[Helgoland]

IIRC, the federal minimum wage would be $27 today, if kept pace with both productivity increase and inflation.

How is productivity increase and inflation calculated in that figure? Because there's a lot you can alter by fiddling with the definitions...

No clue.  Just something I've seen cited a few places before.

That's why I'm sceptical, you see... Especially seeing how, for example, women today are much more likely to be working (for a wage) than back then.

[Sheb]

I don't really see your point. Anyway, labar participation by women in the US started much earlier than in Europe (especially Germany), so I'm not sure it that significant a factor.

[Helgoland]

A family with two breadwinners doesn't need wages as high as those for a family with only one. True, each hour is paid less, but the standard of living still rises because there are fewer dependants per person. Plus there's been an increase in one-person households, where this effect is even more pronounced.

[GlyphGryph]

Minimum wage stuff:
http://www.nextnewdeal.net/minimum-wage-laws-and-labor-market-what-have-we-learned-card-and-kruegers-book-myth-and-measurement

It's does a good job of covering a lot of the different studies and research projects that have gone into this, analyzing the conclusions, and pulling it together.

It's worth not just reading the page, as a large part of its value is providing useful links if you're still interested.

The basic finding seems to be that demand for employees is extremely inelastic: Most firms don't hire employees they don't need, so getting rid of any employees is only likely to result in them losing money. It reduces their profits, generally, but not the number of people they employee.


On other issues, here's a brilliant summary by a right-winger on the whole Bergdahl situation - remember to read from the bottom!

[mainiac]

The average you used is nearly worthless in this context because virtually nobody actually works that figure, which is amost exactly between conventional full time and part time work. Full time work (5 days a week, 8 hours a day for a total of 40 hours/week) results in gross figures $26,000/year at $12.50 and $31,200 at $15.00. Part time workers would instead make 13,000 and $16,600. These are better figures to base assumptions on because between %75 and %90 of American adults will average to those two points over a year, taking sick days and overtime into account.

Full time work is a somewhat misleading figure itself for many low wage workers because their employers deliberately make it difficult for them to hit 40 hours (and thus risk going over 40 hours and start working time and a half).  If you have the kind of employer who values your morale little enough to pay you minimum wage, it's almost an inevitability that you will go undertime or overtime but consistently hit 40.

I would suggest using the median hours worked, which is generally around 1800 a year.  This gives us the median minimum wage worker at $15/hr earning 27000 a year.  In a two income household that's livable even if one income were part time but if that were a one income household with children it would certainly be a stretch.

[Helgoland]

You guys don't need a higher minimum wage, you guys need a welfare state.

And 27.000 a year for one person is, well, not a lot, but not exactly little either, right? Unless I'm underestimating the dollar-euro exchange rate... For comparison, a German on welfare gets just shy of 400€ per month plus rent, so about 650-700€ all in all. Of course, our health insurance etc. is way cheaper, but even so that's quite a difference.

[XXSockXX]

For comparison, a German on welfare gets just shy of 400€ per month plus rent, so about 650-700€ all in all. Of course, our health insurance etc. is way cheaper, but even so that's quite a difference.

Actually healthcare doesn't factor in there, if you're on welfare the government takes over your insurance payments.

[Helgoland]

That's what I meant - in the US, even with minimum wage you'll have hefty insurance costs.