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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 833713 times)

Max White

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5415 on: January 11, 2014, 02:00:40 am »

So looking like Democrats to win, big freaking surprise...
On the other hand, maybe the snow storm will just keep going until the only people left alive are paranoid right wing gun nutters with bomb shelters to hide in, and Republics win by a landslide and get to rule over a frozen wasteland.

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5416 on: January 11, 2014, 02:13:51 am »

I think I'll wait for Nate Silver to use his witching powers and tell us the outcome instead.
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
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FearfulJesuit

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5417 on: January 11, 2014, 02:22:55 am »

So looking like Democrats to win, big freaking surprise...
On the other hand, maybe the snow storm will just keep going until the only people left alive are paranoid right wing gun nutters with bomb shelters to hide in, and Republics win by a landslide and get to rule over a frozen wasteland.

Well, the GOP could win if the Dems really screw up in the next three years. (Jesus, the election's really creeping up on us...) It would be a big could, but not a terribly big one. If we're stuck with a lackluster economy AND the GOP nominates someone halfway competent like Christie or Huntsman AND the Dems nominate someone other than Hillary AND the GOP is good at spending its advertising cash, which it wasn't in 2012- then the Republicans could take the White House.

Take any of those out of the equation, though, and it becomes harder. If Hillary gets the nomination, she's going to win; likewise, if the GOP nominates a roflcopter like Santorum, they'll lose. If the economy improves, the Dems will win, too, and it will look more like 2008 than 2012.

Other difficulties could present themselves with the states:

-If Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union between now and 2016, it will get 7 Electoral Votes; reshuffling of House seats won't take place until the next census in 2020, so between those two happening the House would have 440 seats, and any candidate would need 273 votes to win. Puerto Rico would also be one of the safest Democratic wins in the country.

-If the Dems take Florida (which they very likely will) plus either Ohio or Pennsylvania, they'll win. If they also win Puerto Rico, then Florida plus either Georgia or North Carolina will also do. Florida plus Arizona or Virginia plus any other swing state in that scenario will also win.

-At a guess, the most likely scenario for a GOP win is the following: PR remains a territory, then the GOP grabs all of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania/Ohio, and something else. Suffice to say that this will be really hard.

Above all, it's worth remembering that 2012 was an election against a black incumbent in a shitty economy. Assuming the economy picks up, the Dems will win in a landslide.

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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

Max White

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5418 on: January 11, 2014, 02:37:18 am »

I think the Democrats are fucking genius. Their right wing moderate platform means that the only stance the GOP can even take is right wing extremists, and over time that alienates people... Granted it screws the nation over in the process, but the goal is to get elected, rather than actually help anybody.

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5419 on: January 11, 2014, 03:06:19 am »

I will remind you that your perception of the Democrats as right-center is relative.
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

Max White

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5420 on: January 11, 2014, 03:09:52 am »

Eh, I do think there is some innate sense of what a middle ground actually feels like. I mean surly the general public is well aware that a modern progressive leader wouldn't be the King of Drones...

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5421 on: January 11, 2014, 03:19:54 am »

While Obama is certainly quite centrist (which should really tell you something about the Republicans, the center is socialist to them), the fact remains that the Democrats have the perception of being and overall are a center-left party. You can see this best in places that are solidly Democrat, there's little chance of even Europeans seeing a place like Vermont as center-right. A Progressive Democrat will take the Presidency soon enough. It might be 2016, or it might be 2020 (I'm placing my money on the latter, as by then the GOP will be so fucked that the Democrats can afford some bravery.), but as long as the GOP doesn't dive leftwards (and soon) it'll happen. Young people and immigrants hate the GOP; what does that tell you about their future?

I mean, hell, official policy-wise the Democrats are to the left of the Coalition even if they're right of Labor and the Greens, so I'm not really sure where you're getting the idea that they're right-wing from.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 03:23:12 am by MetalSlimeHunt »
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

Max White

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5422 on: January 11, 2014, 03:22:51 am »

Aus Labor is right wing. Greens are moderate left. Both are 50 shades of authoritarian... Maybe I'm a little too bias left to have a clear view of center.

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5423 on: January 11, 2014, 03:36:45 am »

Aus Labor is right wing. Greens are moderate left. Both are 50 shades of authoritarian... Maybe I'm a little too bias left to have a clear view of center.
Considering you just called a party who you yourself said is part socialist right wing, yeah, I'd say you have some bias.
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

FearfulJesuit

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5424 on: January 11, 2014, 03:37:41 am »

Yes, Whiggery is everywhere and perpetually dissatisfied. Those of us (like me) with anti-democratic leanings and old-leftist inclinations from before the hijack by Tumblr sympathizers still hold out some measure of hope for the coming era.
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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

Max White

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5425 on: January 11, 2014, 03:42:55 am »

Considering you just called a party who you yourself said is part socialist right wing, yeah, I'd say you have some bias.
They have their good terms... This isn't one of them.  :P

wierd

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5426 on: January 11, 2014, 04:37:47 am »

As an american centrist, my view is almost certainly suspect as well, but on the other side.

To me, the following is a 'good' (Probably not ideal, or even smart-- but well intentioned) centrist outlook that would be applicable to the USA:

I think that's a pretty good general outline- missing a lot of flesh concerning domestic social issues, but meh.

Basically anyone from the GOP would see that and should "COMMUNIST!" though.





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Dutchling

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5427 on: January 11, 2014, 04:46:11 am »

Smells like commie propaganda to me
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Steeled

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5428 on: January 11, 2014, 05:58:05 am »

While Obama is certainly quite centrist (which should really tell you something about the Republicans, the center is socialist to them), the fact remains that the Democrats have the perception of being and overall are a center-left party. You can see this best in places that are solidly Democrat, there's little chance of even Europeans seeing a place like Vermont as center-right. A Progressive Democrat will take the Presidency soon enough. It might be 2016, or it might be 2020 (I'm placing my money on the latter, as by then the GOP will be so fucked that the Democrats can afford some bravery.), but as long as the GOP doesn't dive leftwards (and soon) it'll happen. Young people and immigrants hate the GOP; what does that tell you about their future?

I mean, hell, official policy-wise the Democrats are to the left of the Coalition even if they're right of Labor and the Greens, so I'm not really sure where you're getting the idea that they're right-wing from.
Blacks and latinos are on average quite conservative, especially when it comes to religion. I wouldn't could out the republicans just yet, Obama isn't quite as popular as he once was. If the GOP manages to find a candidate that isn't a RINO they'll probably win 2016.

I say this as a Libertarian.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5429 on: January 11, 2014, 06:15:10 am »

Blacks and latinos are on average quite conservative, especially when it comes to religion.
First of all, religion=/=politics, especially not in secular states like this one. Blacks I'll give you on social issues, with the caveat that it doesn't matter much given the GOP's staggering dedication towards doing absolutely everything to drive away black voters. Latinos are a different story altogether. I've written before on how the perception of Latinos as conservative is just lazily lumping all racial minorities together and is one of the largest misconceptions in modern political science. American Latinos are quite liberal. For example, there's solid support for legal aborition among Latinos, and that's one of the shakiest issues for liberals. And if we're talking about religion, Latinos are solidly aligned with the Catholic Church, which is hardly a bastion of conservatism anywhere in the Americas. Old-School European Catholicism this ain't.
Quote
I wouldn't could out the republicans just yet, Obama isn't quite as popular as he once was.
While that's true, Barrack Obama is legally prohibited from seeking another term as President of the United States of America. He's not shaping up to be a Reagan, Carter, or Bush. Aside from being the first black President and passing the ACA, I see him being quickly forgotten.
Quote
If the GOP manages to find a candidate that isn't a RINO they'll probably win 2016. I say this as a Libertarian.
That all depends on what a RINO is to you, given that the word is thrown around almost as freely as "terrorist". If you mean a socially liberal, fiscally conservative member of Congress with some experience and respect under their belt, then sure, they have a chance in 2016. If you mean someone like Santorum, or Bachmann, or Cruz, or any other far-right nutjob, then I'll just be over here dying of uncontrollable laughter.
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.
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