Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

Ted Cruz

7 (6.5%)

Rick Santorum

16 (14.8%)

Michelle Bachmann

13 (12%)

Chris Christie

23 (21.3%)

Rand Paul

49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107

[Aqizzar]

Na, the house would have no other choice but to pass it.

The thing is, it ultimately doesn't matter what the Senate does, so much as what Speaker Boehner does.  This stalemate could have ended a week ago, but as Speaker of the House, he has a lot of power over exactly which bills are allowed to come to the floor to be voted on.  If he just refuses to let the Senate bill come to a vote, which is basically how all this started, nothing the Senate passes will mean anything.  So it's really just a question of how much theatrics he thinks the measure deserves.

[misko27]

It would be so wonderful if maybe, just maybe, someone besides a democrat or a republican was seriously considered as a president. The last time this happened, we got Theodore Roosevelt.

Err, but he ran as a progressive rpublican, and first as Vice (Does no one remember President McKinley?) When Roosevelt ran in the Progressive party? He lost.

-snip-

Crap, missed it by a millisecond. Well, The Senate has gone to bed for the night; leaving their almost finished compromise waiting one or two minor details to be worked out; and I too shall go to sleep, as the PSAT is tomorrow.

You forgot to mention that the Senate compromise, so lovingly crafted by the elder statesmen of the upper chamber....will meet a horrible flaming death when it gets to the House (also known as the "Short Bus" Chamber of Congress).

We are so utterly fucked.

The thing is it only requires 18 republican votes, and given how angry some of those moderate republicans are (and they are angry), it could pass with even a few votes, or even more, to spare. And if Boehner doesn't put it up to vote, he will personally take the blame for the shutdown, which he really, really does not want to do.






I think I speak for everyone when I say that John Boehner has the potential to destroy the world, and himself. While he has been delusionally holding out, this would put him up to the face of the gun, and everyone will know that he, personally, will be responsible, so we will soon learn forever whether the old deal maker will bite the bullet, or rather, which bullet.

[Sindain]

It would be so wonderful if maybe, just maybe, someone besides a democrat or a republican was seriously considered as a president. The last time this happened, we got Theodore Roosevelt.

Err, but he ran as a progressive rpublican, and first as Vice (Does no one remember President McKinley?) When Roosevelt ran in the Progressive party? He lost.

Bull Moose, Roosevelt was the candidate for the Bull Moose party.

[fivex]

The Bull Moose party was a nickname for the Progressive party.

[Sindain]

Bull Moose is a significantly more entertaining name. 

[alway]

Well, I suppose this is the time to play a round of When Will The Stock Market Crash. I'd give it until 11AM Eastern time. I suspect the downgrade suggestions will cause it to open a bit lower, then remain more or less steady. Then one of two things happen: 1. republicans fold, stock market increases or 2. most of the morning passes, and it becomes increasingly clear that legislation won't make it through Congress in time, stock market crashes a good 5% or more. At this point, I'd give it 50/50 odds either way. All it will take now is one single act of bullshit delaying like we saw today to tank the entire global economy.

[RedKing]

Well, I suppose this is the time to play a round of When Will The Stock Market Crash. I'd give it until 11AM Eastern time. I suspect the downgrade suggestions will cause it to open a bit lower, then remain more or less steady. Then one of two things happen: 1. republicans fold, stock market increases or 2. most of the morning passes, and it becomes increasingly clear that legislation won't make it through Congress in time, stock market crashes a good 5% or more. At this point, I'd give it 50/50 odds either way. All it will take now is one single act of bullshit to tank the entire global economy.

I think the market will fall tomorrow (maybe 100-200 points), but I think a lot of folks will still be betting on 11th hour theatrics like we had a year ago when the government avoided shutdown by an agreement reached a few minutes after midnight (the birth of the sequester).

If/when that doesn't happen, the opening of the Dow Jones on Thursday morning will be catastrophic. A 1500-point drop (roughly 10%) is not unrealistic. Of course, overseas markets will be able to react in real-time to a broken deadline, so the bloodletting will have already started.

The bond markets and currency exchanges will also be key to watch. How badly will the dollar fall, and who will be the winners as currency markets try to decide what the new "reserve" currency is? The Euro? The yuan? (which is still partially pegged to the dollar -- would not be surprised to see China scramble to unpeg the yuan if the dollar starts dropping like a lead balloon)


Best case scenario -- Some financial jitters and people take a wait-and-see attitude, since the actual default may not happen until Nov 1.
Worst case scenario -- The dollar collapses in a global panic, wiping out the wealth of hundreds of millions of Americans, and large chunks of wealth to debtor nations like China and Japan. Riots by dinnertime.

[alway]

Oops, my bad, we're fucked either way now:
http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/15/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Even if a deal is finalized soon, that doesn't mean it will become law right away.
The earliest a vote might happen is late Thursday or in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, assuming Boehner sends a "message" allowing the Senate to expedite its vote.
If there's not unanimous consent by senators -- in other words, if a tea party conservative like Cruz has an issue -- a final vote would be pushed to Saturday, at the earliest. The delay for a final Senate vote could stretch seven to 10 days, if some chamber members throw up yet more procedural hurdles.

Welcome to default, everybody!

So... The stock market's dead, it just doesn't know it yet.

[FearfulJesuit]

Oops, my bad, we're fucked either way now:
http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/15/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Even if a deal is finalized soon, that doesn't mean it will become law right away.
The earliest a vote might happen is late Thursday or in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, assuming Boehner sends a "message" allowing the Senate to expedite its vote.
If there's not unanimous consent by senators -- in other words, if a tea party conservative like Cruz has an issue -- a final vote would be pushed to Saturday, at the earliest. The delay for a final Senate vote could stretch seven to 10 days, if some chamber members throw up yet more procedural hurdles.

Welcome to default, everybody!

So... The stock market's dead, it just doesn't know it yet.

Welp...that's it, everyone. Better make a late-night run to Wal-Mart for some guns and ramen.

[EDIT: I'll keep the timer going, on second thought...miracles do happen. Even in Washington.]

And from here:

The Senate has adjourned until tomorrow, meaning no bill will be introduced until then. Business will begin tomorrow at noon. As for the negotiations, legislators are still reportedly "close" on a deal.

BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AT NOON. That will give Congress twelve hours. Twelve hours. Y'all better start praying, because without divine intervention, we are completely and totally fucked.

[lue]

The bond markets and currency exchanges will also be key to watch. How badly will the dollar fall, and who will be the winners as currency markets try to decide what the new "reserve" currency is? The Euro? The yuan? (which is still partially pegged to the dollar -- would not be surprised to see China scramble to unpeg the yuan if the dollar starts dropping like a lead balloon)

I'm going to be play with Money Legos, aren't I?

[RedKing]

The bond markets and currency exchanges will also be key to watch. How badly will the dollar fall, and who will be the winners as currency markets try to decide what the new "reserve" currency is? The Euro? The yuan? (which is still partially pegged to the dollar -- would not be surprised to see China scramble to unpeg the yuan if the dollar starts dropping like a lead balloon)

I'm going to be play with Money Legos, aren't I?

You know, I've always wanted to do that cliche thing where you light a cigar with a $100 bill. And now, I can!

[FearfulJesuit]

The bond markets and currency exchanges will also be key to watch. How badly will the dollar fall, and who will be the winners as currency markets try to decide what the new "reserve" currency is? The Euro? The yuan? (which is still partially pegged to the dollar -- would not be surprised to see China scramble to unpeg the yuan if the dollar starts dropping like a lead balloon)

I'm going to be play with Money Legos, aren't I?

You know, I've always wanted to do that cliche thing where you light a cigar with a $100 bill. And now, I can!

Amateur. Within six months I'll be lighting my $1 billion cigar from the $1 trillion pile I'll be using to warm my house.

[RedKing]

The bond markets and currency exchanges will also be key to watch. How badly will the dollar fall, and who will be the winners as currency markets try to decide what the new "reserve" currency is? The Euro? The yuan? (which is still partially pegged to the dollar -- would not be surprised to see China scramble to unpeg the yuan if the dollar starts dropping like a lead balloon)

I'm going to be play with Money Legos, aren't I?

You know, I've always wanted to do that cliche thing where you light a cigar with a $100 bill. And now, I can!

Amateur. Within six months I'll be lighting my $1 billion cigar from the $1 trillion pile I'll be using to warm my house.

If the dollar crashes *that* hard, we'll all have bigger things to worry about.

[smirk]

The bond markets and currency exchanges will also be key to watch. How badly will the dollar fall, and who will be the winners as currency markets try to decide what the new "reserve" currency is? The Euro? The yuan? (which is still partially pegged to the dollar -- would not be surprised to see China scramble to unpeg the yuan if the dollar starts dropping like a lead balloon)

I'm going to be play with Money Legos, aren't I?

You know, I've always wanted to do that cliche thing where you light a cigar with a $100 bill. And now, I can!

Amateur. Within six months I'll be lighting my $1 billion cigar from the $1 trillion pile I'll be using to warm my house.

If the dollar crashes *that* hard, we'll all have bigger things to worry about.

You guys will. I already have a pile of old car tires; tomorrow is now officially armor-crafting day.

[PTTG??]

No no, tomorrow is Kerbal Space Program .22 day. I'll count out my bottlecaps on Thursday.