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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 821381 times)

Xantalos

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2295 on: October 01, 2013, 01:34:36 am »

So look, I hear shit is hitting the fan?
Is there a 'lazy foreigner version' for people who don't fully understand how the US manages to function, or not function, but wants to know the implications of what the fuck is happening?
I kinda need this.
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FearfulJesuit

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2296 on: October 01, 2013, 01:45:07 am »

Basically, here's how this works.

In any normal country, once you pass a budget, then the treasury will pay for it. You only have to pay for something once. This is, of course, intuitive, proper, right, and logical- and so the US has to do something entirely different.

Instead of Congress putting a budget through and then just having that stuff be paid for (because, you know, it authorized all that shit already), it has to authorize such payment twice- once at the budget level and once with the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling was, until 2011, a mere formality. It was an entirely pointless piece of legislation (that we don't constitutionally have to have around, even!) that puts a cap on how much money the federal government can borrow. Once you've done borrowing up to that limit, you have to raise it to borrow more. For most of its history, the debt ceiling has been regarded by both sides as a necessary and sacred legal fiction, too holy to be debated at all.

Then, in 2011, the newly sworn in GOP-led Congress, with a bright new crop of Tea Party nuts ready to take action, found out that you could use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip to try and get your unrelated domestic agenda enacted...because, despite the fact that this is not even a necessary fiction, once the ceiling has been hit, if the government goes for any length of time after that point, it will default on its debt. I don't know how much of its debt will be defaulted on, but this is an extremely bad thing. China holds trillions of dollars of our debt, which has historically been the safest investment in the world, bar none. Wars are waged, nations have fallen and risen, depressions and bubbles and booms and busts have come and gone, but the US Treasury has been selling its bonds for more than two centuries, and it has not been a minute late on a single one of them.

Naturally, then, the safest debt in the world sold by the most powerful nation in the world is a key cornerstone of the modern world economy. For that reason, if the US defaults on so much as a dime of its Treasury bonds, the entire world's financial markets are going to panic in a way that is likely to make 2008 look like a reasoned and deliberate response to a small error. We have no idea how bad it would get, but it would get bad. Very bad. All the more so when you consider that the GOP's demands in return for not causing the historical mire of the century are nothing less than undoing just about every major piece of legislation President Obama has enacted while in office.

Now, there are a few ways around this. For example, if the GOP refuses to budge come the 17th, Obama could instruct the Fed to mint a platinum coin with a face value of $1 trillion and place it in the US Treasury. This looks like running to the printing press to pay your bills, and rightly so- it is a mere accounting trick, and for that reason cannot be done more than once or twice. By keeping it in the Treasury, for now, it won't cause inflation, because it isn't out in the market being traded around, but that, again, is a legal fiction. It's a one-time method to keep Congress from destroying or severely crippling the modern economic world order. In the end, however, there is only one way around this, which is to vote the lunatics out of Congress. And unfortunately, without a real crisis, such as that which default would cause, this may not happen.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 01:46:47 am by FearfulJesuit »
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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

Descan

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2297 on: October 01, 2013, 01:47:17 am »

'Murica, for some reason, has this law that they can't borrow past a certain amount without raising the limit. Despite the fact that they've always (before now, at least) raised the limit, and it's recently become a tactic to hold the debt ceiling hostage until the 11th hour to get your way.

Not raising the debt ceiling send's America into default, and all the trillions of dollars they've borrowed? Poof. Bankrupt. You can imagine how that's bad.

Right now, the government services not involved in life-saving or, to an extent, protection of property have become defunded. No money except what they've saved, and after that, no money at all. This money lasts for around ten days on average, and then even the courts shut down.

So, between now and the 15th, they have to hash out a budget that both parties can agree on (basically, the republicans have to cave against the whole "defund obamacare!" thing they keep sticking into the budget) AND agree to raise the debt ceiling. In 15 days.


That's a foreigners view of the idiocy that is Voyager America. And also kind of a tl;dr of what Jesuit just wrote out.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 01:49:02 am by Descan »
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Max White

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2298 on: October 01, 2013, 01:52:46 am »

Interesting.
I'm not optimistic about the future right now, although at least we have made a few deals with China to help protect from this shit, it doesn't sound like anybody is safe. I'm listening to a news report on this right now, it doesn't sound good.

Good fucking luck guys. I hope you can come out with your credit rating somewhat intact, and also still actually have a government.

Xantalos

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2299 on: October 01, 2013, 01:58:31 am »

Spoiler: Say what (click to show/hide)

...
So the GOP is essentially holding the world hostage.
We need James Bond or some shit.
This is - this is - what.
WHAT.
...
I don't know whether to be glad I live in Canada or flipped out that our markets are inoxerably intertwined with yours.
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FearfulJesuit

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2300 on: October 01, 2013, 02:15:09 am »

Everyone's economy is intertwined with America's. It's not just American debt- there are other crises waiting to happen, and if we default they are going to emerge from their lairs like campy subvillains in a particularly nasty boss fight.

-China's banking system is really quite unstable, although a scare earlier this summer (thankfully) did not come to pass. China, however, holds more American debt than anyone else, to the tune of 1.2 trillion dollars, and guess whose assets those are counted as? That's right, the Chinese banking system.

-Japan (world's third largest economy), Brazil (sixth largest, nearing fifth), "oil exporters", and "Caribbean Banking Centers" (what would Romney do?) hold a lot of our debt too.

-The EU doesn't hold much of our debt compared to everyone else, but if the world economy crashes then the perilously unstable Eurozone is going to collapse entirely.

-America's other biggest trade partners- that's Canada and Mexico- are also fucked.

And it's not just them. If the whole economy goes into crisis, the world's investors, consumers, and states, all at once, like a great hivemind, will seize up and stop trading and buying and lending. That will make the world economy crash even more. Etc. etc. It's worth noting that many of the great economic crashes of modern times (barring, from a short poke around Wikipedia, the Panics of 1837 and 1893)- the South Sea Bubble, the Panic of 1873, the Panic of 1907 (the only reason you've never heard of this one was that J. P. Morgan singlehandedly bought everyone's stock to restore order- a feat that will almost certainly never be repeated), the Great Depression, and of course the Great Recession of 2008, kicked off in late summer to mid-autumn...which is the current time of year.

« Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 02:27:26 am by FearfulJesuit »
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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

Xantalos

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2302 on: October 01, 2013, 02:17:18 am »

...
I'm sure someone would put out a presidential pardon if all the Tea Party people doing this suddenly died, wouldn't they?
So what? Stock up on canned food and ammo?
Yep. All there is to do.
...
Wait. What date is the US possibly going to default on?
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FearfulJesuit

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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

Xantalos

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2304 on: October 01, 2013, 02:25:52 am »

Great. The day after my birthday, the world may end.
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misko27

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2305 on: October 01, 2013, 02:42:05 am »

The US government is nothing if not stable. The world could be crashing around it and DC would live until the elections. We don't simply "dissolve" the government as many other democracies are fond of.

The Debt ceiling is really hard to describe in terms of impact, because the moment it hits it's entirely up to Obama and the Treasury with what to do. Legally, it's most likely the US would default equally on all it's obligations, a mix of tax-hikes, spending cuts, and debt-defaults, which would probably sink the US (and the world) into depression, mostly through absolutely massive financial turbulence caused by the fall of the US bond. It is possible to avoid an actual default on debt by prioritizing, but this would require a 40% cut in US spending, which is a tad unrealistic. There is the option for Obama, I've pointed out, of simply ignoring the debt ceiling, violating the constitution, and saving the US from devastating default. The law states the Executive branch must "borrow, tax, and spend what congress authorizes", and technically he is in violation no matter what occurs. In any case, none of the options look good, and given uncertainty in Europe and slowing in China, it would lead no matter what into a world-wide crisis (or, if he violates the law, merely a constitutional crisis, which could lead to a Bill Clinton impeachment moment).

'Murica, for some reason, has this law that they can't borrow past a certain amount without raising the limit. Despite the fact that they've always (before now, at least) raised the limit, and it's recently become a tactic to hold the debt ceiling hostage until the 11th hour to get your way.
This has occured once before in 2011, and the US suffered a credit rating downgrading. Also I feel the need to point out the Danish also have such a system, though their bonds are not the rock on which the world economy stands.

Anyway, the shutdown will have some unpleasant effects, but nothing that can't eventually be fixed, within a year or two. The Debt ceiling would be irrevocable damage to the entire world. Also the little part of my brain responsible for enjoying being a alarmist is churning like mad. It would be a really good time to be a dictator totally isolated from financial markets at least, or becoming one.
Great. The day after my birthday, the world may end.
Not quite. I mean, it's not like the great economy in the sky crashes into the earth or something. Not Yellowstone exactly. Hey, wouldn't it be cool/terrible for a yellowstone eruption and the US default to happen on the same day? Now that would be the end of the world.

October 17th. Citation from the Washington Post.
Citation? The Treasury department has issued this information specifically.

However, I would like to remind everyone that although the Tea Party is mad, they are not suicidal, and they are a minority of the majority. If Boehner is willing to put on his big-boy pants, we could still bypass this easily.
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Xantalos

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2306 on: October 01, 2013, 02:44:16 am »

Great. The day after my birthday, the world may end.
Not quite. I mean, it's not like the great economy in the sky crashes into the earth or something. Not Yellowstone exactly. Hey, wouldn't it be cool/terrible for a yellowstone eruption and the US default to happen on the same day? Now that would be the end of the world.
I could pull some strings if it happens.
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Descan

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2307 on: October 01, 2013, 03:14:39 am »

Wait, waitwaitwait.

Obama has to "borrow, spend, and tax what Congress has authorized."

Congress just failed to pass a budget.

Congress has failed to pass, or authorize, a budget.

It's all so clear now...
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misko27

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2308 on: October 01, 2013, 03:31:15 am »

Wait, waitwaitwait.

Obama has to "borrow, spend, and tax what Congress has authorized."

Congress just failed to pass a budget.

Congress has failed to pass, or authorize, a budget.

It's all so clear now...
Well yes and no;unable to authorize a new budget, the government falls back on a previously passed law, the Antideficiency Act of 1884, which is technically a budget. This law guides the current shutdown precedings.


Anyway, there has been a spat of vandalism in the Wikipedia article for shutdown, mostly random stuff like Harry potter spoilers and comments announcing the Teenage Mutant Ninja turtles were to be furloughed.
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Sheb

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Re: FJ's American Politics Megathread Two: SEDECIM Dies Donec Finis Venerit
« Reply #2309 on: October 01, 2013, 04:48:43 am »

But all those things the government is shutting down, they're thing the Congress authorized, right? So Congress can authorize and not authorize spending at the same time. It's like they managed quantum budgeting, until the wave function collapse in either a working US economy or a crashed one.
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