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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 819282 times)

GreatJustice

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2085 on: September 18, 2013, 02:08:09 pm »

Can't find the source of that graph. Google reverse image searching obviously leads to a number of visually similar graphs. Which is useless.

Edit: Using Wikipedia it's clear that there are no West European countries with rates so high as there're in the graph. (Assuming rates are correct).

The only countries in Europe with rates above 4 are almost all Former Sovjet states. And a statistical outlier (Greenland, due it's extremely low population)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Yeah, the initial graph I used for Western Europe included the Baltics. My bad. It doesn't change things (significantly), though:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

For reference, the countries used are:

Country - Gun Ownership % - Homicide Rate
Austria - 30,4% - 0.6
Belgium - 17,2% - 1.7
France - 31,2% - 1.1
Germany - 30,3% - 0.8
Luxembourgh - 15,3% - 2.5
Netherlands - 3,9% - 1.1
Switzerland - 45,7% - 0.7
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Helgoland

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2086 on: September 18, 2013, 02:44:17 pm »

Calculate the variance and we'll talk again.
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Dutchling

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2087 on: September 18, 2013, 02:46:14 pm »

Almost 4% of people here own a gun o.O?
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Darvi

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2088 on: September 18, 2013, 02:53:32 pm »

Hey now, our high homicide rate is completely unrelated to gun ownership. I know that first-hand because... uhm... I'll shut up now.
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misko27

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2089 on: September 18, 2013, 03:12:35 pm »

Gun Debates: The most fun debates, because you always think the opposing sides are about to break out the fisticuffs.


Anyway, a update on Aaron Alexis: The Washington shooter purchased his gun,  a law-enforcement-style shotgun, In Virginia. The catch is he attempted to purchase a AR-15, but was stopped by Virginian Law stating the rifle could not be sold to out-of-staters. In addition, it has turned out there was no Assault-rifle at the seen as previously claimed, just his shotgun, and a Semi-automatic Pistol looted off a dead guard. Finally, he is stated to have had constant low-level problems, but never quite enough to make him show up on the radar: Was nearly "generally discharged", a level below honorable; once called police to report a person he had argued with sent 3 people with microwave machines to harass him, and that heard heard voices, this only got him treatment at Veteran Affairs Department for psychiatric issues. If he had been forcibly interned he could not have purchased the gun, and if he had been either arrested or generally discharged he likely would not have gotten security clearance.


Obama has ordered a Government-wide review of security clearances, and likely there will be some more stringent rules.
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Owlbread

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2090 on: September 18, 2013, 03:44:34 pm »

So the whole AR15 thing has been exposed as 100% media hype bullshit? Fo' sho'.

So much for Biden's "buy a shotgun" nonsense.
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10ebbor10

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2091 on: September 18, 2013, 04:03:58 pm »

Country - Gun Ownership % - Homicide Rate
Austria - 30,4% - 0.6
Belgium - 17,2% - 1.7
France - 31,2% - 1.1
Germany - 30,3% - 0.8
Luxembourgh - 15,3% - 2.5
Netherlands - 3,9% - 1.1
Switzerland - 45,7% - 0.7
Luxembourgh is a bit too small to count as an example. I mean, it translates to just 12 deaths. Switzerland and Austria have an abnormally high gun ownership rate due to their conscription based army. On average, it's however true that culture is a more important factor than gun ownership

Do Note that these numbers are for Intentional homicide; on which reducing the availability of guns would have little influence. The difference is made by the unintentional homicide, where the availability of a gun turns a normal incident into a deadly one.
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Darvi

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2092 on: September 18, 2013, 04:15:13 pm »


Luxembourgh is a bit too small to count as an example. I mean, it translates to just 12 deaths.
That's sizist!

Note to self start annexing Belgium.

Also no h.
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Neonivek

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2093 on: September 18, 2013, 04:17:34 pm »

Uhhhh...

Can we really compare gun ownership percent to just homicide rate? Shouldn't we compare Gun ownership to gun related homicides and compare gun related homicides with the regular homicide rate?

Also DANG Switzerland is packing.
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Darvi

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2094 on: September 18, 2013, 04:19:09 pm »

Well yeah they are required to have a loaded gun cabinet or something like that.
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10ebbor10

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2095 on: September 18, 2013, 04:23:43 pm »

Switzerland and Austria (the latter to a lesser extent) have mandatory gun ownership due to their conscription based armies.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

Neonivek

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2097 on: September 18, 2013, 04:29:13 pm »

A majority of Americans see Russia as unfriendly or an enemy for the first time in fifteen years.

What why? Honestly I don't even see them as enemies in any conceivable way other then they mildly dislike each other.

I have a feeling it is related to the latest diehard movie.

Reads article:

NEVERMIND!!! I see... by grouping unfriend and enemy together it is easy to make it seem much worse then it is. After all being "unfriendly" is different then being an "enemy"
« Last Edit: September 18, 2013, 04:33:11 pm by Neonivek »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2098 on: September 18, 2013, 04:31:00 pm »

What why?
Well, you could always read Gallup's report on the subject if you wanted to know that.
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

Chaoswizkid

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #2099 on: September 18, 2013, 04:38:12 pm »

Are you really telling me you can't find Mict's sources?  He directly quoted from the articles, so you can just paste a paragraph into Google and it will immediately come up with the HSPH article, which properly cites every study it draws from.

Yeah, I'm really telling you so. He didn't directly quote from the articles at all. Here's where he got all the stuff from: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/

For Self-Defense and Gun Policy, I copy and pasted each article as it was referenced in his post, authors included, into Google. If that didn't work, I copied only the article title, its publication and its date into Google. That helped in a single case. If that didn't work, then I'm going to go with Burden of Proof is on him to supply the articles.

Otherwise I can just go:
Quote
Our study confirmed that gun bans are bad and shouldn't be done.
Jibberjabber, Jim. Gun Bans Are Bad. Duke University, 2000.
Or at least something like that. It's as useful as the stuff he posted. I'm not saying they don't exist, I'm saying that I need to look into them because the ones I was able to look into had issues (that I explained why they were issues) so I can't trust any of them at their word alone. After searching for 15-20 articles and finding only a handful, I gave up looking for the Homicide and Women section articles. I agreed with a lot of things on the Suicide section so a lot of it I didn't even both looking because I was so frustrated trying to dig through the internet to find it. Each Google search turned up that site, this thread (probably due to analytics), and then page after agonizing page of references and debate about it, but not the actual article. If the opposition cannot access or review proposed evidence then it shouldn't be used at all; that's Burden of Proof. Also, you shouldn't force the opposition to look for your evidence either. I spent most of six hours looking, reading what I could find, analyzing, dissecting, making graphs and posting my findings. That's way more time and effort than it would have taken if I had readily available access to those articles.


@Gun Ownership and stuff,
I actually produced a graph with Guns per 100 people versus Firearm-Related Homicides per 100k people. If you take all the countries with available data, you find a negative slope. If you take away Africa, South America, the Middle East and Asia, you find that there is actually a positive slope. However, if you take out the US (because it is both an outlier in terms of homicides and guns per 100 people), you get a much smaller positive slope and cannot determine that there is any real relationship going by the Rē value. I'm not posting it because I made the graph like 5-6 years ago, looked for more data now, found out a bunch of stuff had changed, so now I need to go find where they got all of the values from because I believe they have more countries in the sources. I believe I found some CIA World Book reports that had the necessary info. Need to do more digging.
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