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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 839410 times)

Scoops Novel

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #585 on: March 17, 2013, 08:26:33 am »

From personal experience/polls, whats the party split like amongst 30 and below?
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GreatJustice

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #586 on: March 17, 2013, 09:15:03 am »

3-way races mainly produce crazy results due to the first-past-the-post voting system. (e.g. having 2 liberal candidates ensures that the conservative gets elected, even if a majority of the population would have preferred either of the liberals).

That's why you need instant run-off voting in the USA. It makes multi-party elections more viable.

If you're describing the system I think you're describing, California has it, and sometimes it leads to problems if theres more than 3 candidates.

For example, assume we're in a deep blue area that votes normally maybe 35% Republican with this system, meaning each Republican gets about 17%. There's a Libertarian/Constitutionalist/Whathaveyou that takes the remaining 1%. But for whatever reason, there are 4 Democrats running, as well as candidates from Peace and Freedom, the Greens, and an independent left winger. With this situation, it's entirely possible that the Elite Liberal district ends up with a run off of two Arch-Conservatives.

Really, the best system would be the one in which you list the order you support them in. So, for example, in the previous case you might put P&F first, the Greens second, the Dems third etc etc with the two Republicans being last. So when the votes come in, the candidate with the least amount of "first" votes has their votes apportioned to the other candidates until you're down to the last two, where a simple majority decides the result. In this way, you could vote for a minor party without hurting the chances of the larger party you support over the larger party you detest.
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tryrar

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #587 on: March 17, 2013, 09:22:26 am »

3-way races mainly produce crazy results due to the first-past-the-post voting system. (e.g. having 2 liberal candidates ensures that the conservative gets elected, even if a majority of the population would have preferred either of the liberals).

That's why you need instant run-off voting in the USA. It makes multi-party elections more viable.

If you're describing the system I think you're describing, California has it, and sometimes it leads to problems if theres more than 3 candidates.

For example, assume we're in a deep blue area that votes normally maybe 35% Republican with this system, meaning each Republican gets about 17%. There's a Libertarian/Constitutionalist/Whathaveyou that takes the remaining 1%. But for whatever reason, there are 4 Democrats running, as well as candidates from Peace and Freedom, the Greens, and an independent left winger. With this situation, it's entirely possible that the Elite Liberal district ends up with a run off of two Arch-Conservatives.

Really, the best system would be the one in which you list the order you support them in. So, for example, in the previous case you might put P&F first, the Greens second, the Dems third etc etc with the two Republicans being last. So when the votes come in, the candidate with the least amount of "first" votes has their votes apportioned to the other candidates until you're down to the last two, where a simple majority decides the result. In this way, you could vote for a minor party without hurting the chances of the larger party you support over the larger party you detest.

......that actually seems somewhat fair on the surface, but I'm not election-savvy enough to really disect that in detail. Does anyone else wanna have a go at this?

Edit: Actually, I DO have a nitpick about this: Assuming the bottom guys' votes are apportioned to the others across the board(otherwise this wouldn't make any sort of sense), the  it's no idfferent than voting for the guy at the top since his position at the top doesn't change(even if his relative vote percentage did!)
« Last Edit: March 17, 2013, 09:27:38 am by tryrar »
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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #588 on: March 17, 2013, 09:48:05 am »

The system you're describing GreatJustice is the top-two primary that is used in California; your bottom paragraph describes Instant Runoff Voting which is what Reelya prefers and is used in some U.S. cities.
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RedKing

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #589 on: March 17, 2013, 10:32:00 am »

From personal experience/polls, whats the party split like amongst 30 and below?
In the 2008 election, the 18-30 crowd went 66-32 (2% other) for Obama, in 2012 it was 60-36 (4% other). So pretty heavily left-to-moderate.

Found a 2012 Pew Center report that showed party ID by "generational" clades:

GenX(1965-1980):
42% Independent
29% Democrat
24% Republican

Millenial(1981-1994):
45% Independent
31% Democrat
18% Republican

And the trend for both GenX annd Millenials has been that the Indie segment is growing significantly, the Dem segment is growing slightly, and the Republican segment is shrinking (and in the case of Millenials, dropping like a lead balloon, dropping 7% over 10 years).

Found it interesting that GenX'ers actually started off more Republican than Democrat as a group, but that steadily reversed. Makes some sense...we were raised on Reagan, Rambo and the Russians.
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Owlbread

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #590 on: March 17, 2013, 11:30:45 am »

Is there a way to break the two-party system and introduce third and fourth parties?
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Nadaka

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #591 on: March 17, 2013, 12:00:47 pm »

3-way races mainly produce crazy results due to the first-past-the-post voting system. (e.g. having 2 liberal candidates ensures that the conservative gets elected, even if a majority of the population would have preferred either of the liberals).

That's why you need instant run-off voting in the USA. It makes multi-party elections more viable.

If you're describing the system I think you're describing, California has it, and sometimes it leads to problems if theres more than 3 candidates.

For example, assume we're in a deep blue area that votes normally maybe 35% Republican with this system, meaning each Republican gets about 17%. There's a Libertarian/Constitutionalist/Whathaveyou that takes the remaining 1%. But for whatever reason, there are 4 Democrats running, as well as candidates from Peace and Freedom, the Greens, and an independent left winger. With this situation, it's entirely possible that the Elite Liberal district ends up with a run off of two Arch-Conservatives.

Really, the best system would be the one in which you list the order you support them in. So, for example, in the previous case you might put P&F first, the Greens second, the Dems third etc etc with the two Republicans being last. So when the votes come in, the candidate with the least amount of "first" votes has their votes apportioned to the other candidates until you're down to the last two, where a simple majority decides the result. In this way, you could vote for a minor party without hurting the chances of the larger party you support over the larger party you detest.
That is almost impossible.

In an IRV system you rank the order of people you like, and do not rank the people you don't like.

The election goes to the 1 candidate to receive more than 50% of votes in the final round of the process.

In the first round, first picks are allotted votes, the lowest vote total candidate.

In the second and subsequent rounds the votes for the previously eliminated candidate are distributed to the voters next pick.

In the final round there are only 2 candidates remaining, one has a majority of the vote.


To get the result of 2 "arch conservatives" in the final runoff in an arch liberal district... That would mean that most of the "liberals" ranked one of those 2 "conservatives" as one of their picks when they didn't have to, and rank them higher than most of the liberal options as well.
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Askot Bokbondeler

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #592 on: March 17, 2013, 12:10:09 pm »

Is there a way to break the two-party system and introduce third and fourth parties?
yes, ranked voting systems like the already mentioned Instant Runoff Voting. that way people aren't forced to vote for the lesser of the two biggest evils and can still support their favourite party when they don't expect it to win without wasting their vote

Nadaka

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #593 on: March 17, 2013, 12:15:36 pm »

Is there a way to break the two-party system and introduce third and fourth parties?
Yes...
Eliminate first past the post elections for individual offices and replace it with a form of range voting (IRV is one type of range voting), and introduce party proportional representation in representative bodies.

My preference is the rewrite the US constitution in order to force states to select their house representatives by party proportionality. That preserves the state based nature of the house and provides a mechanism to elevate locally popular parties and candidates to national recognition.
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palsch

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #594 on: March 17, 2013, 12:46:38 pm »

I know I'm a broken record on this, but IRV/AV (and given I campaigned for AV in the UK, I tend to use that term) isn't a sufficient (or even necessary) condition to open things up for third parties. The current structural problems in the US are far deeper than can be cured simply by changing the voting system.


One of the biggest problems here is that both the Democratic and Republican parties are very broad coalitions of various regional parties. While there is lots of apparent room on the national stage for other parties, the flexibility the two big players have in each region means they can quite easily expand to fill those gaps before someone else can try to fill them.

If there is a region where a nationalist anti-immigration third party might do good, the Republicans can always find a candidate who will use that feeling. Where there is an enclave of environmentalist socialists the Democrats can ride it to an electoral victory with a candidate who genuinely feels the same way they do. They might not be running anything like the campaigns seen for national offices, or even come close to sharing common ground with a member of their party from across the country, but they can keep the seats in the party and keep the binary power structures in place without anyone getting too annoyed by it.

Quite simply, the two parties are so powerful because they are so weak. If they had strong ideological lines that their members were expected to follow, regardless of region or level of office, then there would be far more space for regional parties to grow and form their own national coalitions. But I doubt that such party unity is ever going to be on the cards for a nation like the US.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #595 on: March 17, 2013, 03:22:28 pm »

Quite simply, the two parties are so powerful because they are so weak. If they had strong ideological lines that their members were expected to follow, regardless of region or level of office, then there would be far more space for regional parties to grow and form their own national coalitions. But I doubt that such party unity is ever going to be on the cards for a nation like the US.

Which is why the Republican side of things has fallen apart of late. Dogma is not a way to govern, and reactionaries are one of the loudest voices on the US-Right at the moment. It's why we see John Mccain and the likes of Lindsey Graham trying to distance themselves from that of late, they're aware they can't gerrymander the Senate and the White House. They know hard-right is not the way to present your party, or run yourself as a part of the government. Which is nice, except the die-hards like Rubio/Ryan/Paul are so entrenched that they will not go away any time soon.

So, expect 3 parties soon. Two Right-Wing, so, at least we will get something done in congress. [As the Moderate Right will gladly work with the Democrats at that point] Note: This is cautious optimism.
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Duuvian

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #596 on: March 17, 2013, 04:34:00 pm »

Quite simply, the two parties are so powerful because they are so weak. If they had strong ideological lines that their members were expected to follow, regardless of region or level of office, then there would be far more space for regional parties to grow and form their own national coalitions. But I doubt that such party unity is ever going to be on the cards for a nation like the US.

Which is why the Republican side of things has fallen apart of late. Dogma is not a way to govern, and reactionaries are one of the loudest voices on the US-Right at the moment. It's why we see John Mccain and the likes of Lindsey Graham trying to distance themselves from that of late, they're aware they can't gerrymander the Senate and the White House. They know hard-right is not the way to present your party, or run yourself as a part of the government. Which is nice, except the die-hards like Rubio/Ryan/Paul are so entrenched that they will not go away any time soon.

So, expect 3 parties soon. Two Right-Wing, so, at least we will get something done in congress. [As the Moderate Right will gladly work with the Democrats at that point] Note: This is cautious optimism.

(Picard voice) Make it so.

If an ambitious Republican were to read this, this certainly is your opportunity to try to garner my support. I mean, c'mon. CPAC invited Palin but not Christie? That should be some kind of wake up call. Or am I misinformed due to not worrying overmuch about how the current Republicans and associates continue to fulfill their seeming desire to wreck their party? I mean, they are just driving it deeper into the ground, and taking useful bits with it.

Here is some honest advice Republicans: Tell your profiteers to shut the hell up and get out of politics. If Michigan's Governor manages to turn around Detroit and not F it up with his crazy manager scheme, look to him and, off the top of my head, Chris Christie because he seems like an honest fellow open to compromise.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2013, 05:06:00 pm by Duuvian »
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Sort of finished and awaiting remix due to loss of most recent song file before addition of drums:
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #597 on: March 17, 2013, 04:38:57 pm »

Which is why the Republican side of things has fallen apart of late. Dogma is not a way to govern, and reactionaries are one of the loudest voices on the US-Right at the moment. It's why we see John Mccain and the likes of Lindsey Graham trying to distance themselves from that of late, they're aware they can't gerrymander the Senate and the White House. They know hard-right is not the way to present your party, or run yourself as a part of the government. Which is nice, except the die-hards like Rubio/Ryan/Paul are so entrenched that they will not go away any time soon.

So, expect 3 parties soon. Two Right-Wing, so, at least we will get something done in congress. [As the Moderate Right will gladly work with the Democrats at that point] Note: This is cautious optimism.
I'd say there are probably two scenarios that this could play out in. The first is what you described, where the GOP splinters due to pressure for results that the far-right cannot deliver. The second would be a scenario in which the far-right maintains party discipline within the GOP all the way until the ship sinks entirely. In this case, the GOP would cease to exist on a federal level and the Democrats would have a second Era of Good Feelings, followed by the Democrats splintering (with the Blue Dog splinter merging with what remains of the Moderate Republicans).
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #598 on: March 17, 2013, 05:43:32 pm »

Here is some honest advice Republicans: Tell your profiteers to shut the hell up and get out of politics. If Michigan's Governor manages to turn around Detroit and not F it up with his crazy manager scheme, look to him and, off the top of my head, Chris Christie because he seems like an honest fellow open to compromise.

I find it fun that a flagship Republican governor implements the most interventionist and invasive programs to 'revitalize' his state's economy that he's helped to rebuild with all those other free-market measures he's adopted [he hasn't]. Snyder is a fascist. Not a real Republican.
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I am surrounded by flesh and bone, I am a temple of living. Maybe I'll maybe my life away.

Santorum leaves a bad taste in my mouth,
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Reelya

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #599 on: March 18, 2013, 08:11:55 am »

3-way races mainly produce crazy results due to the first-past-the-post voting system. (e.g. having 2 liberal candidates ensures that the conservative gets elected, even if a majority of the population would have preferred either of the liberals).

That's why you need instant run-off voting in the USA. It makes multi-party elections more viable.

If you're describing the system I think you're describing, California has it, and sometimes it leads to problems if theres more than 3 candidates.

For example, assume we're in a deep blue area that votes normally maybe 35% Republican with this system, meaning each Republican gets about 17%. There's a Libertarian/Constitutionalist/Whathaveyou that takes the remaining 1%. But for whatever reason, there are 4 Democrats running, as well as candidates from Peace and Freedom, the Greens, and an independent left winger. With this situation, it's entirely possible that the Elite Liberal district ends up with a run off of two Arch-Conservatives.

Really, the best system would be the one in which you list the order you support them in. So, for example, in the previous case you might put P&F first, the Greens second, the Dems third etc etc with the two Republicans being last. So when the votes come in, the candidate with the least amount of "first" votes has their votes apportioned to the other candidates until you're down to the last two, where a simple majority decides the result. In this way, you could vote for a minor party without hurting the chances of the larger party you support over the larger party you detest.

Maybe you just never heard of instant-run-off voting. I used that name because that's what's it's called in the USA, so i thought it'd be easier to communicate what i meant. England calls it the Alternative Vote, and Australia calls it Preferential Voting. It sounds exactly like what you're advocating.

Let's say each of 2 Conservatives gets 17%, and 4 Liberals each get 16% each. In first past the post voting, one of the Conservatives is automatically the winner, meaning the Liberals foolishly "split the vote" and lost a winnable election. Let me show you how IRV prevents splitting the vote by either side:

The first round of eliminations, eliminates the Liberal with the lowest primary vote. But his votes get passed onto the person that each voter put second. Now, it's highly unlikely that the people who voted #1 Liberal voted #2 as one of the arch-conservatives. Let's assume all the Liberal votes, selected the 4 Liberals ahead of the 2 conservatives, in some combination of D#1, D#2, D#3, D#4. What happens is that after the preferences are distributed, each of the remaining 3 Liberals gets his original 16% + 16% * 1/3 of the eliminated Liberal's votes.

The person with the lowest vote at this stage is one of the Conservatives, so he gets eliminated, and let's say that all his votes get passed to the other Conservative, giving that conservative 35%. The 3 remaining Liberals all have lower than 35% still, so the one who now has the lowest total is also eliminated, leaving 2 Liberals with about 32% each. This is still lower than the surviving Conservative's 35%, so the 2nd last Liberal is eliminated, and his 32% passes to the other Liberal, meaning he's the winner with 64%

That's how IRV works in practice. It does a good job of simulating how the surviving 2 candidates would have fared in a 1-1 election, but allowing multiple candidates to have a chance without screwing things up.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2013, 08:36:10 am by Reelya »
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