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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 832469 times)

Bauglir

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9435 on: November 05, 2014, 10:41:08 pm »

Republicans have significantly higher voter turnout, especially in non-presidential elections. Moreover, for the majority of voters, partisanship is everything and issues are tangential. Usually, you picked the party whose rhetoric sounded good to you in High School and then you stick with it until something dramatic happens to get you to care enough to start thinking about what branding of rhetoric really speaks to you. That's how you can have people voting for a minimum wage raise and a Republican governor - because the governor's a part of their "team", but they still know how shitty minimum wage is. That there's a disconnect doesn't occur to many, and to those that it does, it's not a big enough issue to justify jumping ship.
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MaximumZero

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9436 on: November 05, 2014, 11:01:38 pm »

So, just a heads up, Rick Snyder was somehow re-elected. You know. The guy who enacted a law stating that he can put whoever he wants in charge of whatever he wants? The one who's pretty much openly corrupt for businesses? Yeah, that guy. He won by a very slim margin, and I'm extremely disappointed in Michigan.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9437 on: November 06, 2014, 01:23:38 am »

I'm still struggling to get my head around this. I can't see why solid Democrat states like Illinois (Chicago for christ's sake!) and Massive Chew Sets have elected Republican governors. What happened?
Aside from all the reasons already stated, you also have conservative billionaires pouring a couple percent of their gross wealth into every midterm, because this is what results.

And while Chicago will never be a conservative place, their political clout isn't anything like it once was. Given your inclinations I'm guessing you've researched how it was essentially the focal point of American socialism for decades. Days long gone by.
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Surely they can't all be like Chris Christie?
Chris Christie is not a good guy or leader by any means. He's just not psycho flavored Republican, which is apparently a great achievement now. But no, they aren't like him at all.
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I feel a sense of detachedness from it all of course as a foreigner and leftist. For me American politics is a choice between bad and terrible. Watching the Democrats go down also feels a bit like watching Labour go down - which is a curious sensation indeed, not quite pleasure or satisfaction or even schadenfreude.
The Democrats aren't really going down, per se. In fact, little has changed in the way of the legislative deadlock other than that the Republicans can say they have all of Congress. Obama will still veto everything coming his way, the Republicans will still bitch about it, BENGHAZI, and little will happen between now and 2016. If, and this is the hope, the Republicans do what they do best and shoot themselves in the foot, there will be a reckoning for them then. The Republicans can't get over their internal factions well enough to win well on a national level, but Congress is leagues easier for entrenched forces to take.
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FearfulJesuit

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9438 on: November 06, 2014, 09:12:46 am »

I'm still struggling to get my head around this. I can't see why solid Democrat states like Illinois (Chicago for christ's sake!) and Massive Chew Sets have elected Republican governors. What happened?
Aside from all the reasons already stated, you also have conservative billionaires pouring a couple percent of their gross wealth into every midterm, because this is what results.

And while Chicago will never be a conservative place, their political clout isn't anything like it once was. Given your inclinations I'm guessing you've researched how it was essentially the focal point of American socialism for decades. Days long gone by.
Quote
Surely they can't all be like Chris Christie?
Chris Christie is not a good guy or leader by any means. He's just not psycho flavored Republican, which is apparently a great achievement now. But no, they aren't like him at all.
Quote
I feel a sense of detachedness from it all of course as a foreigner and leftist. For me American politics is a choice between bad and terrible. Watching the Democrats go down also feels a bit like watching Labour go down - which is a curious sensation indeed, not quite pleasure or satisfaction or even schadenfreude.
The Democrats aren't really going down, per se. In fact, little has changed in the way of the legislative deadlock other than that the Republicans can say they have all of Congress. Obama will still veto everything coming his way, the Republicans will still bitch about it, BENGHAZI, and little will happen between now and 2016. If, and this is the hope, the Republicans do what they do best and shoot themselves in the foot, there will be a reckoning for them then. The Republicans can't get over their internal factions well enough to win well on a national level, but Congress is leagues easier for entrenched forces to take.

I'm not so sure...there's a number of things (immigration reform, especially) that might possibly get passed with McConnell as majority leader. I mean, I'm not terribly fond of McConnell, but he's old-school enough to know that when you need to make a deal, you make a deal. And I just don't see the Tea Party having enough energy to keep him from doing it. They've had their day, and they've left their mark on the GOP for some time to come, but as a real bloc that can wreck the establishment? That ship's sailed.
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Zanzetkuken The Great

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9439 on: November 06, 2014, 06:29:36 pm »

« Last Edit: November 06, 2014, 06:31:20 pm by Zanzetkuken The Great »
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Dutchling

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9440 on: November 06, 2014, 06:34:29 pm »

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Zanzetkuken The Great

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9441 on: November 06, 2014, 07:20:47 pm »

Looks like Ben Carson may try to be president.
Well, the commenters seem to be liking him.

A lot.

If he is nominated, I'm probably going to vote for him on the simple fact that everything he has, he fought for and earned it.  That says a lot about a person in their favor.
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It's Zanzetkuken The Great. He's a goddamn wizard-dragon. He will make it so, and it will forever be.
Quote from: 2016 Election IRC
<DozebomLolumzalis> you filthy god-damn ninja wizard dragon

Flying Dice

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9442 on: November 06, 2014, 07:57:26 pm »

McConnell got another term. Maybe he'll be out of office by the time I'm dead, but somehow I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't.
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Frumple

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9443 on: November 06, 2014, 08:00:28 pm »

Considering you'd probably get the same quality of work out of a corpse with a jawflapper shoved up its bum, they may just decide to keep electing the guy after he dies, too. Year 3051, McConnell's fossilized skeleton will still be there, jawing away. Opponents and cohorts alike will have long noticed the politisphere's improved dialectic.
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Flying Dice

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9444 on: November 06, 2014, 08:04:04 pm »

Somehow it feels wrong to use the verb "jawing" for the speech of that man, considering...

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Jervill

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9445 on: November 06, 2014, 10:56:44 pm »

I'm still struggling to get my head around this. I can't see why solid Democrat states like Illinois (Chicago for christ's sake!) and Massive Chew Sets have elected Republican governors. What happened?  Surely they can't all be like Chris Christie?

I feel a sense of detachedness from it all of course as a foreigner and leftist. For me American politics is a choice between bad and terrible. Watching the Democrats go down also feels a bit like watching Labour go down - which is a curious sensation indeed, not quite pleasure or satisfaction or even schadenfreude.

Biggest reason is legally Illinois has a flat tax rate; any increase hits everyone.  That's going to cause issues.  Where the Gov didn't fall (Minnesota) has a very progressive income tax structure.  Quinn also had horrible favorables (as did O'Malley in Maryland), and that is going to cost votes.  Also, left wing states have a habit of believing in "balancing the ticket" that usually leads to GOP Govs (Massachusetts, for example).

And the young and minorities didn't vote...again, just like 2010.
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Bohandas

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9446 on: November 07, 2014, 01:01:19 am »

And the young and minorities "didn't vote"...again, just like 2010.

FTFY
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penguinofhonor

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9447 on: November 07, 2014, 03:47:08 pm »

Demographics of the 2014 election. Fun fact: republican-voting white men outnumber democrat-voting white men almost 2-to-1.

Somehow it feels wrong to use the verb "jawing" for the speech of that man, considering...


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Frumple

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9448 on: November 07, 2014, 04:02:04 pm »

Okay... demographics thing, you're confusing me.

How does this:
Code: [Select]
Black 18-29 5% 49% 49%
Black 30-44 15% 40% 58%
Black 45-64 32% 36% 62%
Black 65+ 19% 36% 62%

and this:
Code: [Select]
Black 12% 89% 10%
Add up?

Actually, looking at it, I think the website just fucked up what age bracket was assigned to which numbers...

E: And I see the rampant xenophobic fearmongering is doing its job. Bleh.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2014, 04:09:49 pm by Frumple »
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Flying Dice

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Re: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party
« Reply #9449 on: November 07, 2014, 04:13:34 pm »

I'm spotting a number of errors in that section: Black voter party identification, latin@ party identification, white party identification, party identification-by-age trends...

Looking at the earlier numbers, it appears that they've got the number sets displaced one category down; white %s to black voters, black %s to latin@ voters, and latin@ %s to white voters. Not sure if the age spread within demographic categories is borked or just flipped.
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