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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 835267 times)

Phmcw

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8355 on: August 21, 2014, 11:16:24 am »

A problem you will have to address is that Americain rules of engagement are incredibely violent : noothing is done to try to keep peoples alive. So yeah, you get a lot of peoples killedlawfully by the police.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 11:22:19 am by Phmcw »
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Sergarr

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8356 on: August 21, 2014, 11:43:05 am »

A problem you will have to address is that Americain rules of engagement are incredibely violent : noothing is done to try to keep peoples alive. So yeah, you get a lot of peoples killedlawfully by the police.
Except for policemen, who are clearly more important and thus get best body armor.
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8357 on: August 21, 2014, 03:20:09 pm »

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Wolfhunter107

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8358 on: August 21, 2014, 03:29:16 pm »

Even more thankful that I have decent law enforcement where I live.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Mary's_County_Sheriff's_Office
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GavJ

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8359 on: August 21, 2014, 05:21:17 pm »

First off, note that you are speaking statistically, here. And worse, you're speaking in terms of poorly contextualized statistics. Finally, it's not a question of whether they are as racist as Republican's, merely racist enough. Republican's don't even factor into the equation.
My point is that most places in the midwest do not act anything like you described, and I've lived all over it. In Chicago downtown, in Chicago suburbs, in small town Wisconsin, in medium town Iowa, in small town southern Illinois. Nowhere do any of those communities remotely approach not caring when people die as an entire constituency or applauding death penalties for people who shoplift $10 of cigars or whatever... regardless of race.

Yes, there are small pockets of people who think that way everywhere. They do not significantly affect voting. Yes, the entire community is often a bit racist insofar as not caring if black people get pulled over more often, or segregating neighborhoods on their own. But these minor racist things are very Very far cry from saying "Good. I want those black thugs dead." as a jerk reaction. or as a voting influence.

So when you casually make claims like that about a nearby county that at face value shouldn't be much different than any of these other ones, I am immediately suspicious. In order for that community to be so dramatically more racist and violence-endorsing than other ones around it, I at first expect there to be significant differences in things like demographics or politics. Somewhere so different should have some very unique, easily detectable differences about it! Things that might explain why it would be so different than regional baseline. I researched these things and found that not only is that not the case, but the opposite is suggested -- it's even more democratic and more black than other midwest communities that I already know don't act like what you described. So from demographics, it should, if anything, be more tolerant than those nearby comparison communities, which I already know are much more tolerant than what you laid out as a description. So by basic arithmetic: more tolerant + green flags of things that should increase tolerance even more = not a super convincing case for a place where people scream for blood for black misdemeanors.

But that's just first blush. Of course, if there are special factors to consider, then it can still be believable anyway that it's different. You didn't mention many or really any of such things until this post, where you suddenly piled on a big paragraph listing them all:

Quote
What demographic and voting records indicate they're going to oppose the Prosecutor over this? Do you have a shred of evidence of why a white-flight county, bordering a majority black city, with a long history of police abuse and coverups against black citizens, a place which regularly tops the charts for "most racist place in America", located in the state that regularly tops the charts for the "most racist state in America", the home of the Dredd Scott decision, a county that is 23% black and yet 80+% of those black people live in one neighborhood in the county despite the fact that there is no economic difference between them and the other neighbourhoods - the divisions are solely racial, and the neighborhood went from 70% white to 70% black over a mere 20 years as whites moved out when blacks moved in, a county where the Klu Klux Klan is still active and handed out pamphlets at county high schools as late as 2007, a county where despite being in a largely black district bordering a majority black city, the average white resident does not interact with black people as a regular occurence, where most of the white counties have had larger protests in support of Wilson than they have in support of Brown.

Okay, so that's getting somewhere. (Some of) these are definitely the sorts of things that might be special circumstances that would explain this place being different. Other stuff is pretty irrelevant seeming in my mind. (And none of it has any citations, which still gives me pause.)

White flight/neighborhood mixes -- Almost everywhere I've lived has had white and black neighborhoods and this doesn't really seem to correlate with extreme racism IMO. I can see how it MIGHT, depending on the specific motivations, but other motivations are benign -- people are often more sexually attracted to their own race and more likely to have single race families, and races go hand in hand with culture most of the time, which means greater comfort and friends with similar interests happens to co-align with racial neighborhoods. OR it can be because of hatred. Simple existence of such divisions doesn't tell you which motivations are at play either way. You need more info.

Police abuse history -- So what, this might but doesn't necessarily imply anything about the community's opinions. The primary national problem here in the first place is lack of police accountability to their communities and that they often don't represent the neighborhood.

Most racist place in America -- clearly relevant if true, but I tried looking this up, and 1) I don't see these communities on any lists, and more importantly 2) I couldn't find many lists actually based on data. All of the ones for smaller areas and towns I found were simply people rattling off opinions, which is pretty dumb, because that's just somebody's personal prejudices about where they think personal prejudices are...? Lol? The few research-backed lists were only by state that i could find, and Mississippi and Alabama seem to consistently win, not Missouri.

KKK involvement -- I've seen KKK around a few times in other places. And it has not seemed to matter. The critical question here is whether it's 6 idiots who get together on weekends and walk around? Or is it like, a massive hundreds of people rally? If the latter, then you might have something important there. If the former, notsomuch.

Pro Wilson rallies -- Also clearly relevant, however you stated it in a way that makes its importance ambiguous. What matters is not whether the Wilson rallies were larger than the Brown rallies within the white communities. What matters is whether the SUM TOTAL of Wilson rallies in the entire county is higher than Brown. For example, if 500 people march in Ferguson for Brown, and 25 people march for Wilson in a few white areas, that still would suggest that the county as a whole is more inflamed about Brown.  If however, the white area protests for Wilson are almost as large as the Ferguson rallies, then it's an excellent point. Need more info.



In general, though, you're making very stiff allegations about this region being full of pretty horrible people by description, compared to various other communities within a few hundred miles of them. And extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. So far, not feeling very extraordinary, but if you have more refined information on some of those points, then that could certainly change things.

I'm not Ferguson native expert -- But I do think it is only fair to start by assuming they are at regional baseline of decency, and then adjusting opinions based only on specific, concrete evidence. Otherwise one isn't much better oneself about making snap judgments than the very people one is condemning for doing exactly that...
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 05:28:54 pm by GavJ »
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SalmonGod

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8360 on: August 21, 2014, 08:27:03 pm »

I think you are misinterpreting two things.

First, for the police to get away with these things, they don't need people to be screaming for the blood of minorities over misdemeanors.  They only need to cast enough doubt on the situation through the use of cultural preconceptions that there won't be too many people raising a fuss over a highly questionable verdict.  Police are seen as representatives of law and order, and it's been very, very thoroughly established that police testimony carries more weight with a jury than anyone else's.  On the other hand, it takes almost nothing to call a black person's character into question through the slightest bit of personal history or imagery that aligns with unsavory stereotypes.

Second, speaking in terms of total demographics doesn't work for situations like this.  It would if actual majorities weighed in on events with informed opinions.  They don't.  The majority will barely remember that this happened a couple months from now.  The majority will be attracted to the imagery of a sensational event, but not the information.  When the event is over, they move on.  There's always another sensational event to take its place.  Events like this do attract the attention of minorities who really care about the broader issues at stake in the event.  In this case, people who care about racism and people who care about police accountability will continue to pay attention.

The way these two things add up, is a few landmark stages in the court proceedings, including the final outcome, will be presented as minor footnotes in the media. 

The majority will remember that some shit went down, but not in detail.  They'll remember that there was some evidence that the kid was a thug.  The police said the kid got shot because he fought with an officer, but neighbors, friends, and family disagreed.  They started a fight with the police over it, and police fought back.  It looked like bad behavior on both sides, but at least the police's bad behavior was with the good intention of maintaining order.  A grey area case that doesn't sit well with them, but they generally value a white police officer's role in society over a probably thuggish street rat black kid.  So they'll shrug it off to the default position of not worth their time, and surf on to the next channel.

The minority that cares will have a power struggle.  It'll be some equal rights/police accountability activists vs a government apparatus on its own turf that is vast majority white, in a country where government at all levels does everything it can to protect the enforcers of its power from consequences for their behavior, has plenty of precedence for corruption in police abuse cases, and whose only concern will be to maintain legitimacy in the eyes of the majority, which I already covered.
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GavJ

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8361 on: August 21, 2014, 09:29:29 pm »

As an isolated analysis on its own of general societal impact, I would be inclined to agree.

But I really just don't get the same hunch as I did with, for example, Treyvon Martin. When the issue is something like police brutality, it can't be analyzed as just isolated media strategy, etc. as if this is the only event that happened like that.  Unlike something like Treyvon Martin (specific douchebag, specific law), general brutality and ineffectiveness of major institutions is the sort of thing that starts adding up and piling up and creating ongoing increased tension and pressure, and sometimes you get sudden snaps and shit hits the fan when that goes on too long.

The more generally relevant and deeper events like this strike a strong resonance with my memory and research of events in history that led to quite significant things.  This is more (in miniature so far) what the civil rights movement was like.

And these sorts of mini-war zones and small incidents that authorities fail to respond to effectively that build up resentment is almost exactly the road that led to the English Civil War.

At the same time, the routinely intentional misinformation and propaganda sorts of tactics used by the tea party of Sarah Palin, etc. are also VERY reminiscent of the atmosphere immediately prior to the French Revolution (very different than English on its own, but this is sort of a blend feeling).

These sorts of things have also happened in other contexts where nothing horrible happened afterward. I don't mean to paint it as some sort of locked-in inevitability. But I don't know. It's just a very strong intuitive vibe, I'm not sure I can offer much more than that.

^
(relevance to previous posts is that if we are actually building toward something, then a lack of local justice in this case may be much more noticed and important long term than you expect it to be. It may be filed into long memories in a portfolio that builds up to eventually break the camel's back...  Or maybe not *shrug* Both outcomes have precedent.)
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 09:35:14 pm by GavJ »
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8362 on: August 21, 2014, 10:58:02 pm »

We'll see how it goes, then. I predict the officers will get at most a slap on the wrist from the local trials, that McCullogh will attempt to sabotage them if it looks like the officers are going to lose, and that he'll still be re-elected when midterms come around. You seem to think that I'm arguing that everyone there is racist, but I'm not. I just thinks the racists and the statists will both turn out to support him and will be more than enough to counteract his opposition from the folks in Ferguson, and the vast majority of the county won't care about what he does in the trial one way or another.

A big enough push from local news media could definitely sway the apathetic to push him out if that pisses them off enough, but the local news media seems to be supporting him so far, so it seems unlikely. Or if Ferguson can manage way, way, way higher turnout than they have previously and there's no opposition to them. Both are possible. Neither seems particularly likely.

Where's your evidence that he would be kicked out or suffer politically for sabotaging the trial? Maybe my evidence is weak, sure, but yours needs to be stronger, and I haven't seen any comparable situations where the prosecutor was punished for supporting the police.

Quote
In general, though, you're making very stiff allegations about this region being full of pretty horrible people by description, compared to various other communities within a few hundred miles of them. And extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. So far, not feeling very extraordinary, but if you have more refined information on some of those points, then that could certainly change things.
This might be a fundamental part of our disagreement, then. I don't think my claims are extraordinary at all. All I'm alleging, from a place that has far more of a reputation for being racist police supporters than a large portion of the country, is that the people here will act no better than average. Because honestly, I can't think of many places in the US where a prosecutor is going to suffer politically for supporting the cops against looters and rioters who are destroying their own community looking for street justice in defense of a violent criminal who charged a police officer and tried to take his gun.

Of course, there are exceptions to people and police in the US being shitty, and it's always nice to see therm
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/08/19/338895262/mental-health-cops-help-reweave-social-safety-net-in-san-antonio?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20140819

But Ferguson definitely isn't one of those places:
http://www.newsweek.com/ferguson-profiling-police-courts-shooting-264744
"last year there were more warrants issued than people in town to issue them to, and a large chunk of Ferguson's police revenue comes from traffic tickets and fines for minor offenses levied against the black community through constant harassment. "
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 11:55:21 pm by GlyphGryph »
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8363 on: August 22, 2014, 11:53:07 am »

A nice comparison about relative support for "unarmed black kid killed by police" versus "police officer who killed an unarmed black kid"

https://www.gofundme.com/SupportOfficerWilson
www.gofundme.com/justiceformikebrown
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Sergarr

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8364 on: August 22, 2014, 03:13:44 pm »

..it's closer than I thought it would be. Very interesting.
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SalmonGod

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Phmcw

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8366 on: August 22, 2014, 06:12:49 pm »

I'm not sure that racism have anything to do with the matter.

During the Martin Trial, peoples were screaming about racism while I was scratching my head : why didn't anyone say that having armed unidentified civilian without any form of training "tipping off" law enforcement by suspiciously stalking peoples at night was a bad idea? Why didn't anyone say that the stupid "strong men" mentality conveyed by rap harmfull to the community?

In this case we have the same problem : a seemingly harmless teenager that choose to confront thee police. Exept this time, a policeman is supposed to be able to subdue an unarmed man without resorting to lethal force.

And don't use kid, it's misleading.
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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8367 on: August 22, 2014, 06:25:01 pm »

How do you know he chose to confront the police :V
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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8368 on: August 22, 2014, 06:30:38 pm »

Theres a video. And yeah, I think it stinks of racism- the dude was standing around shouting "Shoot me!". He wasn't charging the officers. If that'd been a white dude, I'm confident he'd have simply gotten tackled and given a slap on the wrist or something.
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Baffler

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Re: Richard Nixon's Sane Conservatism Nostalgia Megathread
« Reply #8369 on: August 22, 2014, 06:37:45 pm »

Has the case of Kajieme Powell been brought up yet?...

What I'm confused about is the accomplice handcuffing the guy while the murderer aims his now half empty gun at the dead man, in an apparent effort to subdue him.
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