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Ted Cruz

7 (6.5%)

Rick Santorum

16 (14.8%)

Michelle Bachmann

13 (12%)

Chris Christie

23 (21.3%)

Rand Paul

49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107

[misko27]

Given the district we are discussing, I find it kinda silly to imagine liberals tipped the scales. I mean they might well have been cancelled out by liberals who thought "Well, you're not Brat, you have that going for you". It's pretty clear the conservatives ousted him.

Also the democratic opponent teaches at the same college as Brat.

More seriously, the whole House leadership is in a frenzy. It's hilarious.

Considering that he lost by 10 points and his own internal polling had him up as much as 34 points....that would have to be a LOT of trolls. You'd need to have coordination of something like that.

Speaking of which, I find those reported internal polling numbers to be dubious. Why'd he spend so much dang money if he thought he had the election in the bag?

He didn't, at least not until the final few weeks. A lot of people thought he was trying to pad it up to 60%. Something tipped him off, but there were plenty of angry people in his district that could have.

[FearfulJesuit]

I don't know...even for incumbent Congressmen in safe districts, I suspect running one or two polls is perfectly standard. Gives the staffers something to do.

[Rez]

Rand Paul seems to have thrown his hat into the immigration reform arena been involved in a single conference call. It's looking like any admission that our current de jure immigration policies aren't fantastic is poisonous for the right. 

I'd guess that Cantor's loss isn't specifically about this throe of immigration reform, but is a general frustration with the him and the GOP's leadership, particularly in the House.

[mainiac]

It really bears saying that Cantor was killed by a monster of his own creation.  He is the highest ranking member of what is seen as the Tea Party.  The exact scaremongering he led the charge of has bit him in the ass.

[GlyphGryph]

It really bears saying that Cantor was killed by a monster of his own creation.  He is the highest ranking member of what is seen as the Tea Party.  The exact scaremongering he led the charge of has bit him in the ass.

So, hearing from people in his district - it looks like there WAS some liberal/Democrat organization to support Cantor's opponent... and that at least a chunk of it was intentional outreach by the Tea Partiers. There was also stuff like this : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/06/ben-cooter-jones_n_5463196.html
which apparently got at least a good bit of play locally,

Again, don't know how much, if any, of a difference this made, but the feeling from people I've heard from who live in his district was that it was a concerted effort and an alliance between several different factions with the express intention of taking him out - and that's part of why turnout was actually the highest its been there in basically forever (up 20,000 people). Getting rid of Cantor seems to be something that people from all walks of life could agree on. :V

Eric Cantor's Pollster Tries to Explain Why His Survey Showed Cantor Up 34 Points
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/eric-cantor-s-pollster-tries-to-explain-why-his-survey-showed-cantor-up-34-points-20140611

Even if, statistically, it didn't up close enough for those cross posters to have done much, I honestly think it would be hella smart for the Dems to stand up and take credit instead of letting the tea party credit this as a solo win.

[Sheb]

Wouldn't it make the democrats look bad? This is not how primaries are supposed to go.

[mainiac]

Wouldn't it make the democrats look bad? This is not how primaries are supposed to go.

The political system just isn't naunced enough.  You can shut down the government and nobody even remembers a couple months later.  Guilt means nothing.

[misko27]

You can shut down the government if the other side immediately blunders for a few months and elections aren't for a year. Now, Election year, with literally nothing on the agenda until November, not so much. How much an event resonates with people is hard to calculate.

I'm still expecting the mentions of the government shut down will increase during the summer as primaries end.

[Zangi]

Wouldn't it make the democrats look bad? This is not how primaries are supposed to go.

The political system just isn't naunced enough.  You can shut down the government and nobody even remembers a couple months later.  Guilt means nothing.

Unless it is a perceived mistake/botch/fallacy under the Obama administration.  Gotta keep on reminding everyone to blamethank Obamacare.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Wouldn't it make the democrats look bad? This is not how primaries are supposed to go.

I'm with Sheb.
This strikes me as a dishonest political tactic, and if the tables were reversed I'd sure be upset.
Meanwhile Eric Cantor is a big name, and it sure as hell would benefit republicans to blame this on meddling amoral democrats rather than a triumphant tea party.

[Rez]

Established politicians often seem to blame internal dissent on agent provocateurs from the other Team.  That is a great deal easier than acknowledging that you're a stinker and will tend to make good Team members more likely to shun reform movements and hold their nose for you.  It's obvious Brat is backed by Obama's PAC, because only a Democrat would presume to oppose Cantor. /s

Keep in mind that this kind of claim would be as strongly dismissed by left punditry as right punditry would be sure of it.  If any hard evidence surfaces, it'll likely be months of news cycles from now and the whole issue will be obscured by propaganda and time.  Loyal party members would cheer if they thought it happened (and that might be the most important part), leaners would shrug and hold their nose, and independents would continue to not vote.  More to the point, would it even rate as a scandal at this point?  I'd be stunned.



Iraq is burning.  Cue Vietnamesque cut'n'run expressions and infinite faith in governments ability to build nations.  We have quite a bit of evidence with respect to that conceit, courtesy of the old colonial powers.

[GlyphGryph]

Wouldn't it make the democrats look bad? This is not how primaries are supposed to go.

The idea that he only got a seat in the race by colluding with Democrats would hurt Bart a lot more than it would hurt his Democratic opponent or the Democratic party (which had nothing to do with it).
The idea that he worked with Democrats to throw out Cantor would increased hostilities within the two branches of the GOP and set them against each other even more than they already are.
The idea that they needed the Democrats would be an incredibly black mark against the Tea Party being able to claim this as an achievement and drive increased investment among its base.

The possible repercussions for the Democrats would be... people finally think they are growing a spine and doing what they need to do to win? I guess?

I guess it would be a win for the GOP Establishment versus the Tea Party as well, if Democrats got credit, but they still end up looking weak, losing a guaranteed seat, and they are still down one of their more experienced congress critters.

And it is how primaries are supposed to go, at least in the state where it happened (that's the whole point of open primaries). A number of people felt they would rather have Bart than Cantor (the Democrats aren't voting for him, from what I've heard, to get the Democratic challenger elected, which is very unlikely to happen, but because they would genuinely prefer him in Congress). Now, the reason they would prefer him is because it would weaken the Republican party and hurt the establishment... but honestly, that's not all that different from the reason the Tea Party supports him!

[mainiac]

Vote Bart 2014
A Liability for Congress

[Darvi]

Implying that congress wasn't a bunch of baboons liability already.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

And it is how primaries are supposed to go, at least in the state where it happened (that's the whole point of open primaries). A number of people felt they would rather have Bart than Cantor (the Democrats aren't voting for him, from what I've heard, to get the Democratic challenger elected, which is very unlikely to happen, but because they would genuinely prefer him in Congress). Now, the reason they would prefer him is because it would weaken the Republican party and hurt the establishment... but honestly, that's not all that different from the reason the Tea Party supports him!

So if we take the Meta to the extreme, we fill eachother's rosters with the worst candidates possible, and so congress is filled with incompetent children. (we think the current situation is bad?)

This isn't the kind of strategy that should be encouraged, not if we want a functional government.