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Ted Cruz

7 (6.5%)

Rick Santorum

16 (14.8%)

Michelle Bachmann

13 (12%)

Chris Christie

23 (21.3%)

Rand Paul

49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107

[FearfulJesuit]

Cantor losing to a Tea Party challenger probably means that the GOP will choose a new majority leader who is well-known, important, and has name recognition, but is orthodox on the issues the Tea Party cares about most.

...Michele Bachmann?

[smjjames]

Cantor could still sneak in as a write in for another Virginia district though.

[FearfulJesuit]

Cantor could still sneak in as a write in for another Virginia district though.

He'd have to live in the district- and that district would already have a GOP nominee. He'd just end up splitting the vote, and hand the Democrats two districts they otherwise would have had no hope of winning.

[Sheb]

Couldn't he sneak in as a write-in candidate in his own district?

Also, my guess is that the GOP will just promote McCarthy, the Majority Whip.

[Culise]

Cantor losing to a Tea Party challenger probably means that the GOP will choose a new majority leader who is well-known, important, and has name recognition, but is orthodox on the issues the Tea Party cares about most.

...Michele Bachmann?

She's said she won't be running again for her House seat in 2014, though she's not leaving politics entirely.  It's possible it'll be her, especially since she can always change her mind, but I think they'll be more likely to pick someone who will still be in the House next year. 

[MetalSlimeHunt]

God, I hope they go with her. If I had a few million dollars in bribes lobbying to spare I'd be campaigning all the fuck over getting her made the majority leader. Please. Please let them keep committing political suicide.

[mainiac]

I'm aware of that but I find it hard to believe that all (or even most) American Jews are anti-Israel. Not that the Democratic Party eschews from kissing Israel's ass, they just don't give them the complementary reach-around like the GOP.

I don't think liberal American Jews are anti-Israel, they just don't have the sort of kneejerk patriotism that makes them support what Israel is doing because it's Israel.

Keep in mind the demographics if Israeli politics.  The left wing that is more culturally connected to Western Europe and the US used to be dominant there.  Now the right wing has solid control, in large part due to a steady flow of immigrants from Russia and Eastern Europe.  So even in Israel itself you would see a huge number of Jews who would be called anti-Israel by the standards of American politics.

He'd have to live in the district- and that district would already have a GOP nominee. He'd just end up splitting the vote, and hand the Democrats two districts they otherwise would have had no hope of winning.

You don't have to live in the district you are running for, you just have to live in the state.  It is considered pretty traditional to run in your home district though which is why one of the nasty tricks used by gerrymanders is to put two incumbents in the same district.

[RedKing]

Conventional wisdom is that Cantor lost because he was seen as too lefty on immigration reform. Considering the House has refused to even take up the issue, I kinda boggle at that. Anybody know what the new guy's stance on immigration reform is? Filling the Rio Grande with sharks? Using a Running Man-style reality show instead of deportation??

Just because he tossed out the majority leader doesn't mean that Brat (seriously @ the last name?) will become the new majority leader.

He could still lose to the democrat challenger in November.

Well no, in fact it would be shocking for a freshman Congressman to become majority leader. I'm just wondering what his stance is, if "refusing to even allow discussion of the issue" is too liberal. If you're to the political right of the status quo, isn't that the textbook definition of reactionary?

[FearfulJesuit]

Should be noted that Virginia has open primaries. There's a distinct possibility that the upset was the work of liberal trolls.

[RedKing]

Should be noted that Virginia has open primaries. There's a distinct possibility that the upset was the work of liberal trolls.

Considering that he lost by 10 points and his own internal polling had him up as much as 34 points....that would have to be a LOT of trolls. You'd need to have coordination of something like that.


Should also be noted that Cantor has already announced that he'll step down as Majority Leader within the next few weeks rather than waiting out the rest of his term. Ostensibly to avoid any kind of power struggle arising, but one's already brewing between Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (the #3 Republican in the House and heir-apparent to the position) and Pete Sessions -- a guy who once compared the Republican strategy as minority party to the Taliban insurgency. And there's a few others throwing their hat in. If the matter isn't settled quickly, it could turn into a major civil war within the Party, as yet another conflict between the Tea Party and the Establishment.

Buckle up folks, it's gonna be a wild one. And bring popcorn.

[mainiac]

Should be noted that Virginia has open primaries. There's a distinct possibility that the upset was the work of liberal trolls.

Eric Cantor had 8,500 fewer people vote for him then last time.  He lost by 7,200 votes.  Basically he faced meaningful opposition (unlike last time) and lost his old supporters.  You don't need a conspiracy to explain that. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/)

Also just think about what you are proposing here.  Thousands of Democrats would need to coordinate to go out and vote together.  This is in a primary where it's a struggle to get people to vote for the candidates they actually want.  At the very least 5000 people would need to be in on the secret for the plan to have a chance of succeeding.  With that many people involved the chances of it remaining secret would be slim.  And honestly they wouldn't need to be secret, in our current he-said-she-said political news cycle the democrats could openly boast about doing this and it wouldn't matter.

[GlyphGryph]

I don't think it needs to be a conspiracy. I've actually heard from a good deal of dems who did exactly that, without an sort of collusion or coordination, just because they hate Cantor that much and voting in the Democratic primary would be worthless anyway.

I guess it's not really trolling though, since they would actually legitimately prefer Brat get elected over Cantor? Even if they'd prefer him solely because he would end up on the bottom rung when he got the position.

I doubt they caused it, but they certainly seem to be happy that they get to feel like they helped!

I don't think you understand just how much the liberals in his district hated the guy and considered themselves to have no other actual options if you think there would need to be a "secret plan" to cross party lines here. People independently deciding to act in their own best interests doesn't actually require a "conspiracy".

[Karlito]

Considering that he lost by 10 points and his own internal polling had him up as much as 34 points....that would have to be a LOT of trolls. You'd need to have coordination of something like that.

Speaking of which, I find those reported internal polling numbers to be dubious. Why'd he spend so much dang money if he thought he had the election in the bag?

[GrizzlyAdamz]

PTW
and also post

snip

Speaking of which, I find those reported internal polling numbers to be dubious. Why'd he spend so much dang money if he thought he had the election in the bag?

Yay confidence games!

[FearfulJesuit]

Should be noted that Virginia has open primaries. There's a distinct possibility that the upset was the work of liberal trolls.

Considering that he lost by 10 points and his own internal polling had him up as much as 34 points....that would have to be a LOT of trolls. You'd need to have coordination of something like that.


Should also be noted that Cantor has already announced that he'll step down as Majority Leader within the next few weeks rather than waiting out the rest of his term. Ostensibly to avoid any kind of power struggle arising, but one's already brewing between Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (the #3 Republican in the House and heir-apparent to the position) and Pete Sessions -- a guy who once compared the Republican strategy as minority party to the Taliban insurgency. And there's a few others throwing their hat in. If the matter isn't settled quickly, it could turn into a major civil war within the Party, as yet another conflict between the Tea Party and the Establishment.

Buckle up folks, it's gonna be a wild one. And bring popcorn.

Cantor has endorsed McCarthy, but Sessions is chairman of the House Rules committee, ensuring that he'll have plenty of power to be a nuisance if he doesn't get the post.

Neither of them appear to be Tea Party darlings, though Sessions is part of the Tea Party Caucus. Both are backing immigration reform, although with what just happened with Cantor, it's difficult to imagine that passing in the new Congress.