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[notquitethere]

Nerjin, your attempts to misinterpret me are only to be expected.  I can only hope that this is a misunderstanding due to youth or some such. Do you understand my claims that if Leafsnail is a spy then you are a spy and if ZU is a spy then you are a spy?

This is based on the fact that spies will put forward teams with spies on. If either Leafsnail or ZU is a spy, then the spy that they tried to put forward is you. The spy team must contain at least one of you, Leafsnail or ZU, and as ZU and LS being spies entails you being a spy, you must be a spy. Is that clear or do I need to rephrase this in even simpler language?

There's no getting away from it Nerjin, you're rustled.

[notquitethere]

Here's it spelt out in proposition logic, with links to the votes I'm referring to:

Definitions:
A. Nerjin is a spy. B. Leafsnail is a spy. C. ZU is a spy.

1. If B then A
2. If C then A
3. A or B or C
---Therefore---
A

[Leafsnail]

Definitions:
A. Nerjin is a spy. B. Leafsnail is a spy. C. ZU is a spy.

1. If B then A
2. If C then A

No.  It is possible for a spy to propose a team without a spy in it.  This kills both of these points and your conclusion.

[notquitethere]

Sure it's strictly possible but highly unlikely, especially in your selection Leafsnail where the vote was only lost by one. Spies couldn't afford to have the third team pass with all town, because that would make them lose both the third and fourth missions and put the last mission into severe doubt. If you don't agree with me here, you're only making yourself look scummier.

[Leafsnail]

The scumteam is you, ZU and Tiruin.  It was clear that no team containing any of the three of you could pass, so it would be better for ZU to concede the round and try and sow a little of bit of doubt by picking an all-rebel team.

Incidentally if it's your view that the scumteam couldn't afford to have a team pass with all town on week 3 then why would Nerjin (who must be scum according to your logic) downvote teams with himself on it?

[notquitethere]

This is a good question and I've got a good answer.

My argument just now was that the spies couldn't afford to put forward an all-town team, I never said anything about them not being able to afford to fail a few scum-containing selections. Who knows what weird voting plan they concocted in their planning phase. I can say that it was likely that mine and ZU's N|erjin-containing teams would fail, so some or all scum downvoting these teams would be no surprise.

We've already established that in any given vote, scum will avoid voting as a bloc and at least one will downvote. The only other Nerjin-containing team that Nerjin downvoted was Ford's selection, where Nerjin would have expected Ford to upvote and the team to pass even if he did downvote. As such, all three times that Nerjin downvoted his own team are clearly accounted for.

[Nerjin]

-snip-
Do you understand my claims that if Leafsnail is a spy then you are a spy and if ZU is a spy then you are a spy?

This is based on the fact that spies will put forward teams with spies on. If either Leafsnail or ZU is a spy, then the spy that they tried to put forward is you. The spy team must contain at least one of you, Leafsnail or ZU, and as ZU and LS being spies entails you being a spy, you must be a spy. Is that clear or do I need to rephrase this in even simpler language?

There's no getting away from it Nerjin, you're rustled.

I understand it. Do you understand how wrong it is? "You voted with TOWN. Therefrore you are scum." is the essential tenant of this argument.

-snip-
We've already established that in any given vote, scum will avoid voting as a bloc and at least one will downvote. The only other Nerjin-containing team that Nerjin downvoted was Ford's selection, where Nerjin would have expected Ford to upvote and the team to pass even if he did downvote. As such, all three times that Nerjin downvoted his own team are clearly accounted for.

You make some interesting points here. Except that they're all wrong. Scum will vote as a bloc if it suits their purposes. They'd be foolish not to. Let's say 2/9 town say "I upvote" and are reasonably trustworthy in their intentions. Every spy would probably flock to vote YES in this situation as it would let them win the game [or at least the mission] with relatively little suspicion due to the assumption that the spies will always have some sort of "out".

Nextly, if I expected the Ford team to pass why would I downvote? To look town for... after I won? Why would I have left it to chance. If I were spy I would have been well served to just say "Yo bros I vote upsalot on this proposed team because it's pretty groovy!" or whatever. For a winning move you leave as LITTLE to chance as possible. Me hedging a win on Ford's honesty would be pretty dumb when I could just as easily say "Yes." with no consequence. Your reasoning is flawed, your argument is flawed, and you are scummy for pursuing it.

[Leafsnail]

So what you're saying  scum will perform some actions that are against their interests (voting down teams that would make them win) for tactical reasons.  But they won't perform others (proposing a rebel team that could allow them to win later).  Am I reading you correctly?

[Leafsnail]

Incidentally you have no excuse for doing this.  You used exactly the same sort of logic in Masons and Mafia, when you were a mafia member, in order to try and incriminate townies for their votes on townies.  If you were actually town now you'd realize from that experience that pure VCA frequently leads you to wrong conclusions, and change your style - but since you're scum you're fine with using the same technique.

[ToonyMan]

I'll be adding Nerjin as the fifth member so every rebel gets to be on a mission.  I'm pretty sure Leafsnail is our last rebel too.

I could put the team up now, but I want to see NQT keep creating gold posts (and so everybody can say something first).

[notquitethere]

Nerjin

I understand it. Do you understand how wrong it is? "You voted with TOWN. Therefrore you are scum." is the essential tenant of this argument.

Ah, so what you are in fact saying is that you don't understand my argument. It's not about how you voted at all. It's how ZU and Leafsnail voted. Let me spell it out one more time.

Spies will put forward spy-containing teams. Right?

If ZU is a spy, the only person that could have been a spy on the team he proposed was you.

If LS is a spy, the only person that could have been a spy on the team he proposed was you.

Either you, ZU or LS must be a spy, therefore you are a spy. That you still don't understand is either evidence of a lack of will to engage with the argument or deliberate obfuscation. What we would expect from a spy.

-snip-
We've already established that in any given vote, scum will avoid voting as a bloc and at least one will downvote. The only other Nerjin-containing team that Nerjin downvoted was Ford's selection, where Nerjin would have expected Ford to upvote and the team to pass even if he did downvote. As such, all three times that Nerjin downvoted his own team are clearly accounted for.

You make some interesting points here. Except that they're all wrong. Scum will vote as a bloc if it suits their purposes. They'd be foolish not to. Let's say 2/9 town say "I upvote" and are reasonably trustworthy in their intentions. Every spy would probably flock to vote YES in this situation as it would let them win the game [or at least the mission] with relatively little suspicion due to the assumption that the spies will always have some sort of "out".

Nextly, if I expected the Ford team to pass why would I downvote? To look town for... after I won? Why would I have left it to chance. If I were spy I would have been well served to just say "Yo bros I vote upsalot on this proposed team because it's pretty groovy!" or whatever. For a winning move you leave as LITTLE to chance as possible. Me hedging a win on Ford's honesty would be pretty dumb when I could just as easily say "Yes." with no consequence. Your reasoning is flawed, your argument is flawed, and you are scummy for pursuing it.

I just looked back at the Ford vote and found some very interesting things. Everyone, let's have go back in time and have a closer look at Ford's selection.

The vote stood as such:

Captain Ford
ToonyMan
notquitethere
Nerjin
 
Okay, now I'm going to speculate a bit. I'm not saying the following is what definitely happened, only that it's one of the possible scenarios that coheres with my Nerjin claim. Nerjin would have good reason to think that Ford and NQT would upvote. ZU, Toaster and Dariush says they'll downvote, Tiruin and Toony says she'll upvote. And then get this, Leafsnail asks Nerjin what he thinks of the team, you know because they're both spies and they want to try and figure out how to play this one. Nerjin says he'll downvote, this is the signal for the third spy ZU to upvote instead. Expecting ZU (the fallguy), Tiruin, Toony, NQT and Ford to upvote, they'd then have enough to swing it. This is one interpretation and there are other ways this could have gone down.

LS

So what you're saying  scum will perform some actions that are against their interests (voting down teams that would make them win) for tactical reasons.  But they won't perform others (proposing a rebel team that could allow them to win later).  Am I reading you correctly?

Yes- because voting down teams that are going to lose anyway is in their interest, and not all voting on mass for teams that might still lose is also in their interest but passing teams that are likely to get them to lose is definitely not in their interest.

Incidentally you have no excuse for doing this.  You used exactly the same sort of logic in Masons and Mafia, when you were a mafia member, in order to try and incriminate townies for their votes on townies.  If you were actually town now you'd realize from that experience that pure VCA frequently leads you to wrong conclusions, and change your style - but since you're scum you're fine with using the same technique.

This is different LS. In the mason game, I was using selective evidence to put forward my case. If anyone else had actually done some of their own vote analysis (no else one did) they would have seen that I was highly suspicious myself, and furthermore, that my scumbuddy in that game Dariush was by my own openly stated methods scum. All this game I've been at a loss because we've had very little concrete information. Now, we have four confirmed rebels and from this anyone can look at the record and make their own conclusion.

Ford, Dariush, Toony, Toaster: don't just take my word for it, do your own analysis and see what it shows. Your collective flip has given us the evidence we need to win this game.

I'll be adding Nerjin as the fifth member so every rebel gets to be on a mission.  I'm pretty sure Leafsnail is our last rebel too.

I could put the team up now, but I want to see NQT keep creating gold posts (and so everybody can say something first).

Toony, which part of my argument didn't you agree with or understand?

[Leafsnail]

Okay, now I'm going to speculate a bit. I'm not saying the following is what definitely happened, only that it's one of the possible scenarios that coheres with my Nerjin claim. Nerjin would have good reason to think that Ford and NQT would upvote. ZU, Toaster and Dariush says they'll downvote, Tiruin and Toony says she'll upvote.

Bolded is wrong.  You never even posted in the vote phase, and the only relevant thing you said before the vote phase was not to put ToonyMan and Nerjin on the same team.  So that would have implied you were going to downvote (only it doesn't matter because the scumteam knew you were on their side).

 And then get this, Leafsnail asks Nerjin what he thinks of the team, you know because they're both spies and they want to try and figure out how to play this one. Nerjin says he'll downvote, this is the signal for the third spy ZU to upvote instead. Expecting ZU (the fallguy), Tiruin, Toony, NQT and Ford to upvote, they'd then have enough to swing it. This is one interpretation and there are other ways this could have gone down.

Why the fuck would there be a signal to have only one spy upvote?  Surely if I thought the vote needed one more vote to win I could have just... you know... upvoted.  If there was a signal it would have been for all three mafia members, since it doesn't matter what happens after you win (see: you, Tiruin, ZU).

Yes- because voting down teams that are going to lose anyway is in their interest, and not all voting on mass for teams that might still lose is also in their interest but passing teams that are likely to get them to lose is definitely not in their interest.

Captain Ford's team was not "going to lose anyway".  It came down to a single vote.  Any downvoter changing their vote would have made it pass.

Passing an all town team is not "likely to make them lose anyway".  There's still round 5, which numerically is still slightly favorable for scum.  What's more suggesting such a team has two positive aspects for mafia member ZU:
1. It gives him a bit of credit if it passes
2. It casts doubts on the people in the team if it fails
Indeed, that's the very doubt you're trying to exploit now.

If anyone else had actually done some of their own vote analysis (no else one did) they would have seen that I was highly suspicious myself, and furthermore, that my scumbuddy in that game Dariush was by my own openly stated methods scum. All this game I've been at a loss because we've had very little concrete information. Now, we have four confirmed rebels and from this anyone can look at the record and make their own conclusion.

I have looked at the record.  I've seen you and ZU jump onto the same team which you both disagreed with, for instance.  I've also shown that Nerjin is clearly both town and scum by your own logic , but you're dancing around to try and avoid this contradiction.

[notquitethere]

I'll humour you. This is just for our own benefit, because we both know our own alignments. Let's imagine Nerjin is town. What would follow from this? Well, for a start I know that this would mean that the scum team is LS, Tiruin and ZU. This would imply that both you and ZU tried to put forward all-town teams. Very odd, but maybe your arguments have merit and maybe this could be a beneficial scum-move. It would also mean that Tiruin put forward a team with two spies on it. This would put Tiruin's insistence throughout the whole game that there was only one spy on the first mission into an interesting light, especially as she consistently claimed that you were that spy. Together these things sort of would make sense: if ever you were confirmed as a spy, then Tiruin would look innocent. ZU's and your own town teams would help make you both look innocent for the fifth mission. Still, unless I've missed something, it'd be a risky strategy. If Nerjin isn't a spy, then the LS, Tiruin, ZU team would have acted pretty oddly but not wholly out of the realms of possibility. (As I said, I'm not trying to convince anyone else of this particular line of thought, as you only have my word that I'm not a spy.) If you're town, then ZU is scum and you're mistaken about Nerjin's innocence and my guilt. If you're scum, as I somewhat suspect, then the fact that you're trying to convince me that Nerjin is innocent is only proving you to be scum.

[Leafsnail]

Or alternatively you are a spy and none of those problems arise.

[notquitethere]

As I said, I wasn't trying to convince anyone there. I know I'm not a spy, but I'm going to have to present more than my word if I'm to convince anyone on this point. I'm going to continue looking into the record and see if I can bring up anything even more solid.