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Author Topic: Viva la Revolucion! Game Over, man, Game over!  (Read 133967 times)

Tiruin

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #300 on: February 25, 2013, 01:08:05 am »

From the second team, I think its probably Ford or LS who are the spies. If LS is a spy, then that kinda clears Tiruin, though its not impossible that he included another spy. Though if Ford is the spy, then the team he makes will have to be rejected.

But hell, I give up. I can't even convince anyone I'm town and those who say I'm scum only have weak reasons behind them. It's like, due to the lack of roleflip//Mafia-styled hunting or pressuring, three people have danced the choices in circles to get at least one of them into each and every team!
So stop trying to convince ppl you're town and starting convincing them of who's scum.  ::)

Ford's numbers are actually correct (AFAIK). My numbers assumed there was only one scum on the first mission, which I no longer think is necessarily a safe assumption.
Well bloody hell I did. But nobody listened, and most of you clear me out as scum (especially you, without tangible reasons.)

Besides, I believe you missed everything else in that post and chose to single that one out, eh?
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Toaster

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #301 on: February 25, 2013, 01:46:47 pm »

Going to brain this all out.

At least 1 scum:
Tiruin
Leafsnail

At least 1 scum:
Leafsnail
Dariush
zombie urist
Captain Ford

Between 0 and 1 scum:
ToonyMan
NQT
Nerjin

ToonyMan and Dariush are my strongest town reads, so I'm going to eliminate them as possible scum.  That leaves:

At least 1 scum:
Tiruin
Leafsnail

At least 1 scum:
Leafsnail
zombie urist
Captain Ford

Between 0 and 1 scum:
NQT
Nerjin


NQT and Nerjin (and Toony, if you don't agree with me) are all mutually exclusive scum- if one is, none of the other can be.  This is relevant for Nerjin's team, especially the up votes:

Nerjin: Up
Dariush: Up
notquitethere: Up
Tiruin: Up

We know that Deathsword, scum, voted down this team.  That means of the four votes here, at least one townie voted for it.  NQT and Nerjin cannot both be scum.  Dariush, probably town, voted for it.  That means at least one other scum downvoted it.

It seems a very oddball strategy for two scum to downvote a scum-loaded team.  Why?  Sadly, down that road lies WIFOM, so there's not much value there.

The week 1 day 2 vote is much less helpful, since it was nearly unanimous.  Only Dariush voted against it- something I read as a minor point in his favor.  (No cost, as scum, to vote for it- since it was a popular team, why not?)

The week 2 vote is heavily divided.  All four members of the team plus myself voted for it, while everyone else voted against it- and it failed.

I'm wondering just how many scum were on the second mission.

My trust on Leafsnail has dropped quite a bit, but I think it's entirely possible that he and Tiruin are both scum.   On much the same note, I'm not nearly as convinced on Nerjin any more.


Tiruin:  So who do you think is the most likely scum team?


Ford:  What say you?  I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
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Tiruin

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #302 on: February 25, 2013, 02:36:56 pm »

Quote
Tiruin:  So who do you think is the most likely scum team?

Leafsnail - confirmed scum. I'm not assuming there were any buddies brought in who performed a lay low action. Anything else is still up for verification.

Quote
My trust on Leafsnail has dropped quite a bit, but I think it's entirely possible that he and Tiruin are both scum.
...Why. On the trust, and on the both scum.
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zombie urist

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #303 on: February 25, 2013, 02:48:22 pm »

To me:
1+ among Tiruin, Toaster, LS
1+ among Dariush, Ford, LS
0+ among NQT, Nerjin, Toony

Dariush: Why did you downvote Tiruin's team? How do you feel being the only person to do so?

Since we already know that there was scum on the week 2 team, it doesn't give us too much information who exactly on that team is scum. On the other hand, Toaster voted for the team, which makes him more suspicious, as there was a significant amount of vocal disagreement towards that team.
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Captain Ford

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #304 on: February 25, 2013, 05:27:42 pm »

Between 0 and 1 scum:
ToonyMan
NQT
Nerjin
This part is incorrect. It's 0 to 2 scum, because Leafsnail could have been the only spy in both the other groups. This invalidates most of the logic in the rest of your post.

Ford:  What say you?  I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
I'm all over the place right now. The only thing I'm certain about right now is that ToonyMan is going on my team. After that, it's a crapshoot.

If I choose to believe Leafsnail, that gives me a lot of valuable information to work with -- but if I'm going to choose to believe him, then there's no point in not putting him on the team. The only reason I was okay with having him on both teams was because I thought he was town enough to eliminate as a suspect, and most everyone else seemed to feel the same way. If that isn't still the case, then I (we) just wasted a mission.

Actually, now that I think about it, everyone on this mission was someone I thought was town. That was the whole point, really.

On another note:
My trust on Leafsnail has dropped quite a bit.
Why? What did he do that shook your trust in him?

Tiruin, you too:
Quote
Tiruin:  So who do you think is the most likely scum team?

Leafsnail - confirmed scum. I'm not assuming there were any buddies brought in who performed a lay low action. Anything else is still up for verification.
Why are you so certain? What has changed to make you think Leafsnail was scum, specifically?


From my perspective, nothing has changed to make me suspect Leafsnail any more than last week, and that's because I was already looking ahead to after the mission. At some point I realized that if the mission succeeded, then the game was basically over (I'd send the same team again, and then on mission 4 we could add anybody and still win it). I didn't point this out before the mission, because I didn't want to discourage spies from laying low -- a win is a win, after all.

However -- I do feel like LS is doing the same thing NQT is doing, if more subtly -- listing information without applying pressure for a read. It's not bad information, but he makes no effort to refine it by questioning people. In the absence of the all the emotion I felt when I voted a few days ago, the subtle signs I've been picking up from Leafsnail all along really stand out.

If Leafsnail is a spy, it stands to reason that Tiruin isn't. He likely wouldn't have picked another spy for his own team. On top of that, Tiruin is making a primitive logical mistake that he wouldn't be making if they were both spies -- and it has to do with the fact there was only one sabotage on the first mission.

...so I'm contemplating sending Tiruin on the mission.

Toony: As the person I have the strongest read on, I'm really interested in knowing who you would send.
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...Holy shit. Ford, you get the Official Medal of Epic Awesomeness.
Its official! Ford! You need to put it in your sig now! "Official Mafia Welcomer!"

ToonyMan

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #305 on: February 25, 2013, 05:57:55 pm »

Toony: As the person I have the strongest read on, I'm really interested in knowing who you would send.
Captain Ford - this should be reeeally obvious, if he's a spy we've already lost
ToonyMan - me, and no I'm not a spy

Those are the given ones.

Either Nerjin or NQT is likely the third spy and I really don't want to leave this to a coin toss.

Toaster/Leafsnail/Tiruin is a really tough choice and I can't say who, if I had to make an order it would go...errrmm Toaster>Tiruin=Leafsnail.  Leafsnail feels like BYOR11 (this applies to Toaster too, but I would judge not as much) and Tiruin feels like Prince's Guard.

This leaves Dariush and ZU.  If Leafsnail is a spy I wouldn't want either of those for fourth position though.

So to summarize:
Captain Ford
ToonyMan
Toaster
Dariush or Zombie Urist

Or if you don't trust LS at all:
Captain Ford
ToonyMan
Toaster
Tiruin

These teams range around 50% of the prior missions and it's the best I can come up with right now.  Hold back on making your decision for a bit so everybody can speak though.
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notquitethere

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #306 on: February 25, 2013, 06:06:40 pm »

Toonyman, on my honour as a scholar and a gentleman, I am not a spy. May my name be forever vilified and cursed and untrusted on this mafia forum if I should be found to be lying now. Is there any other person here that would stake their honour on this matter?
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Nerjin

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #307 on: February 25, 2013, 06:13:02 pm »

Toonyman, on my honour as a scholar and a gentleman, I am not a spy. May my name be forever vilified and cursed and untrusted on this mafia forum if I should be found to be lying now. Is there any other person here that would stake their honour on this matter?

Are you... serious? I'm sorta amused at the gesture but this equates to "Take my word on it."

@Glyph: This game is incredibly unbalanced towards spies. Without any way to be sure of it it's basically just a waiting game unless the spies do stupid things. Maybe power-roles would help in the future yeah?
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notquitethere

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #308 on: February 25, 2013, 06:50:00 pm »

Are you... serious? I'm sorta amused at the gesture but this equates to "Take my word on it."
I could not be more serious. It's more than just taking my word for it: I am playing in a number of games at the moment and I'm very likely to play in many more games in future here. I'm staking my reputation on this point: I am not a spy. Can you say the same thing?

Quote
@Glyph: This game is incredibly unbalanced towards spies. Without any way to be sure of it it's basically just a waiting game unless the spies do stupid things. Maybe power-roles would help in the future yeah?
Could not agree more.
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #309 on: February 25, 2013, 06:58:25 pm »

We can talk about that after the game is over, not before.
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zombie urist

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #310 on: February 25, 2013, 06:58:47 pm »

No one cares about whether or not you lie in a game. No one cares about your reputation unless you cheat or troll. (or lurk)

Toony: As the person I have the strongest read on, I'm really interested in knowing who you would send.
Can't think for yourself?

Quote from: Toonyman
Captain Ford
ToonyMan
Toaster
Dariush or Zombie Urist
This team looks good.
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Captain Ford

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #311 on: February 25, 2013, 08:57:43 pm »

Toonyman, on my honour as a scholar and a gentleman, I am not a spy. May my name be forever vilified and cursed and untrusted on this mafia forum if I should be found to be lying now. Is there any other person here that would stake their honour on this matter?
I'll take that. I wouldn't make a play like this, but I know you're the kind of fool that would. And I'm pretty certain you wouldn't play this card if you were already on the verge of winning.

I was on the verge of recommending you for this mission already, on the basis that you haven't been faking your lack of knowledge about the game. Your latest post is just the capstone for me.

Of course, if you are lying, then next game the gloves are really coming off.

* * *

So NQT is the third one in my party. Based on what I've seen from him recently, and with that last post as a capstone, I'm putting him down as 99% rebel.

There's that one part of me that's thinking he really, really might be that much of a bastard that he'd do this just to put the final nail in the coffin. But after all of his attempts to be honest and open, where he's expressing his frustration and pleading for assistance -- I really, really think he's genuine.

* * *

I still have to pick a fourth.

GlyphGryph:
What's my deadline to submit a team?
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...Holy shit. Ford, you get the Official Medal of Epic Awesomeness.
Its official! Ford! You need to put it in your sig now! "Official Mafia Welcomer!"

Nerjin

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #312 on: February 25, 2013, 09:01:27 pm »

Toonyman, on my honour as a scholar and a gentleman, I am not a spy. May my name be forever vilified and cursed and untrusted on this mafia forum if I should be found to be lying now. Is there any other person here that would stake their honour on this matter?
I'll take that. I wouldn't make a play like this, but I know you're the kind of fool that would. And I'm pretty certain you wouldn't play this card if you were already on the verge of winning.

I was on the verge of recommending you for this mission already, on the basis that you haven't been faking your lack of knowledge about the game. Your latest post is just the capstone for me.

Of course, if you are lying, then next game the gloves are really coming off.

* * *

So NQT is the third one in my party. Based on what I've seen from him recently, and with that last post as a capstone, I'm putting him down as 99% rebel.

There's that one part of me that's thinking he really, really might be that much of a bastard that he'd do this just to put the final nail in the coffin. But after all of his attempts to be honest and open, where he's expressing his frustration and pleading for assistance -- I really, really think he's genuine.

* * *

I still have to pick a fourth.

GlyphGryph:
What's my deadline to submit a team?

... ARE YOU SERIOUS!!! We need a perfect play and you're getting swayed over a GENTLEMANLY PATHOLOGICAL APPEAL!!! God damn it... Why ford? Just why?
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ToonyMan

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #313 on: February 25, 2013, 09:01:39 pm »

If NQT is sincere that would make me happy about my ploy on Nerjin being right, but I can't say the guy has been acting well at all.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #314 on: February 25, 2013, 09:03:01 pm »

Basically what I'm saying is that Nerjin > NQT town-wise by far otherwise.
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