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Author Topic: Viva la Revolucion! Game Over, man, Game over!  (Read 134435 times)

Captain Ford

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #270 on: February 22, 2013, 12:37:49 pm »

I'm sure you'll look lovely in your dress.
That's fair.
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...Holy shit. Ford, you get the Official Medal of Epic Awesomeness.
Its official! Ford! You need to put it in your sig now! "Official Mafia Welcomer!"

Nerjin

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #271 on: February 22, 2013, 12:44:14 pm »

It may not be my point to say so but I'm sure everything will go fine. I've been to weddings, just try to enjoy yourself.

@glyph, are the votes in yet?
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The demon code prevents me from declining a rock-off challenge.

Is the admiral of the SS Lapidot.

Toaster

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #272 on: February 22, 2013, 12:55:20 pm »

Mine went fine.  The cake was the best part!


...you know, besides that one woman that was there in a white dress.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

GlyphGryph

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #273 on: February 22, 2013, 01:01:35 pm »

I think I just got the last vote in a couple hours ago. Won't really have time to confirm until tonight after work.
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Captain Ford

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #274 on: February 22, 2013, 01:03:47 pm »

Thanks, Nerjin. I'm sure it will all go fine. (For a second there, I thought you were talking about the mission and not the wedding)

It's not my first wedding either. Nor is it the first time I've been to one of my mother's weddings.

Everyone has stated how they're going to vote, and I know I sent my vote in last night (I even used the format GG requested).

PPE: Toaster

You guys realize it's not my wedding, right?

PPE: GlyphGryph

Really, just a few hours ago? I wonder who it was. *shrug*
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Toaster

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #275 on: February 22, 2013, 01:05:20 pm »

Oh sure, but mine was the most recent one I've been to.  I generally try to avoid them- I've been to... five, I think, counting mine.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

GlyphGryph

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #276 on: February 22, 2013, 01:11:05 pm »

We're also up to four people properly formatting and one Dariush, who's probably gotten about as close as he's going to get what with his desire to maximize the chance of me making an error again. ;)
That's half! We're totally doing it.
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Captain Ford

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #277 on: February 22, 2013, 01:25:03 pm »

Ah. I think this will be my ... fourth? That sounds right.

It's at least the fourth one I remember.



And it sounds like the thread will be open at least another four or five hours. I feel like there's more to be said, but I can't think of anything much to say.

In any case, this is how people said they were going to vote (correct me if I'm wrong):
Up:
Dariush (assumed)
Leafsnail
Zombie Urist
Toaster
Captain Ford

Down:
notquitethere
ToonyMan
Nerjin
Tiruin

Some of them might have said "probably", but I didn't get the feeling anyone was going to change their mind.

...I think I'll work on my reads.
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...Holy shit. Ford, you get the Official Medal of Epic Awesomeness.
Its official! Ford! You need to put it in your sig now! "Official Mafia Welcomer!"

Dariush

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #278 on: February 22, 2013, 01:43:42 pm »

Dariush (assumed)
Nope, I downvoted my own team.

On that note, since it isn't explicitly stated in the rules, GG, do leaders have to manually upvote their teams?

GlyphGryph

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #279 on: February 22, 2013, 03:03:52 pm »

They have to explicitly vote. The vote does not have to be up.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #280 on: February 22, 2013, 04:39:17 pm »

With Ford drunk posting we now have Hapah and Ford doing it.  Congratulations Ford!
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Tiruin

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #281 on: February 22, 2013, 04:41:39 pm »

...I am so confused right now. I've written like a half dozen posts and had to scrap them all. My mother's getting married this weekend and I'm just not able to concentrate enough on the game to put my jumbled thoughts together. So I'm going to have leave them as jumbled thoughts.

I've seen some things I didn't before. Toaster makes a good case for Tiruin being a spy. That Toaster and Leafsnail both point the finger at him is and not at each other says to me that they're either right, or they're both scum (I guess that doesn't follow logically. But it's a gut feeling)
Or they're both confused and deem to call me a spy because the other seems more town. Their reasoning? Mostly lacking.

I mean, most people agreed with my pick of teams. Then...what, my reputation fell because of...

The ellipses speak much more than I could. As they say what I really feel. More than 3 people expressed nebulous statements on why they feel its a one over the other - why the other is more 'town' without stating why, and why I feel like scum without stating why.

So at least one of Tiruin or Leafsnail is a spy.  My read on Leaf is fairly town, so that means it's likely Tiruin in my eyes.
Is this the good case you're pointing at, Ford?

[quote-Lastly]Oh, and of course, neither Dariush or that other guy on the team (whose name completely escapes me right now and I can't be bothered to look up) have done anything to rouse my suspicions. Except for existing, of course. The organizer having a town read is a huge plus.

I'm going to vote up now before I lose my nerve. I honestly think this team has a good shot at success,[/quote]
You're upvoting because? Pressure and the want to see it a success? Honestly, judging by your wording and attitude in your posts, you seem null to me - you aren't wording your statements in a way that they fail to express your point, but are giving it in full. (That one other guy is zombie urist btw. >.>) But your reasoning behind them...?

Anywhoo, judging by your drunken reads, it seems you've two people on the extremes.
Tiruin>Nerjin>...GlyphGryph

Where red = spy. Green = Town. Yeah, I'm poking at every point here, but I'm wondering why you're more inclined to mark people out as spy than town.


Also, have a great time!

With Ford drunk posting we now have Hapah and Ford doing it.  Congratulations Ford!
Where's Hapah doing it?
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Captain Ford

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #282 on: February 22, 2013, 10:47:08 pm »

Bleh. I guess it's partly this exchange:
How many sabotages were there?
I think that was a one...The tally said one.

Toaster didn't know how many sabotages there were, but you mistook the score tally for the sabotage/success vote tally. Which is far more likely if you already knew how many spies were on the team. It should have been 1:2, not 1:0. It's an odd mistake to make unless you already knew what number you were looking for.

But then I never saw the original version of GG's post. It might have been less clear back then. I don't know. At some point I realized Toaster was looking for evidence against you and started noticing things that he was looking at/for. For example, his post about DS's downvote was odd (why narrow it down to two possibilities?), unless I look at it in the context of knowing he was specifically suspicious of you.

Toaster never actually pointed some of these things out, I now realize. But I think he would have noticed them. I guess it's not so much that he actually made a case against you, as much as if you read from his perspective, you can see a convergence of factors that makes for a good case.

...but mostly you just sound more like scum Tiruin than town Tiruin to me.

...especially the part where you ask me to explain my reasons right after I finished explaining my reasons. That's very familiar.

I mean, most people agreed with my pick of teams. Then...what, my reputation fell because of...

The ellipses speak much more than I could. As they say what I really feel. More than 3 people expressed nebulous statements on why they feel its a one over the other - why the other is more 'town' without stating why, and why I feel like scum without stating why.
If you're a spy, it's most likely that you picked two rebels to go with you.

If you're a rebel, it's pretty unlikely that you managed to pick two spies to go with you. The rebels who go on a mission are in the best position to go on a mission are in the best position to point out the saboteur. As long as they're both pointing the finger at you and not at each other, that's a pretty strong point against you.

Of course, that's not the only thing I'm basing my opinion on. Toaster supported this team, and he's the only one to do so who wasn't on it. That's saying a lot. But I'm not sure what it's saying just yet.

I'm rambling. Sorry. Point is, this mission's success will reflect on him as well.

> I love the relevancy...
Yeah. I spoilered that for a reason. :/

Anywhoo, judging by your drunken reads, it seems you've two people on the extremes.
...yeah, I guess you could draw that conclusion.

Hmm...yeah, I was pretty certain you were a spy last night, wasn't I? I guess I'll trust that me for now. He seems like a cool enough guy.

...I'm wondering why you're more inclined to mark people out as spy than town.
That was really more of a parody of a reads list than an actual reads list. Right now my views are shifting a lot as I spend time mapping out the interactions throughout the game. Mostly I'm looking at who is supporting who, and who is throwing suspicion at who else.

I think Leafsnail was right back when he said that it was more important to identify rebels than spies. That's part of what this team is going to help with. I hope.

With Ford drunk posting we now have Hapah and Ford doing it.  Congratulations Ford!
I don't actually drink. But when I get tired and anxious I do lose a lot of my inhibitions and judgment. I had a friend who called it "night-drunk".

And yeah, I'm still feeling a little bit of it.

Spoiler: Off-Topic (click to show/hide)

I'm also really surprised that the thread is still open. I guess GG is still writing flavor or busy with something else.

Also, I'm incredibly paranoid about Leafsnail being a spy. I think it's just something about the way he plays. Also, his change in avatar has really thrown me off. I'm used to seeing that sneaky snail skulking about. This guy who resembles somebody from the far side is completely unfamiliar to me. Although I can identify with his love of America and Israel.

Leafsnail has said a lot of pro-town things. But I'm bothered by several nagging discrepancies that just won't go away. It's one of those times where I think my logical mind is right and my gut instincts are wrong. But my gut is really insistent about this one...bleh.

I am worried that rushing this mission out the door is bad for the town because it limits discussion. At the same time, the original game was meant to be played in an afternoon. In a forum format, it would die if we actually let it draw out as long as possible. This game has been very spirited so far and I'd hate to see that happen to it.

There's probably a gazillion more things I took into account when I decided how to vote for that team. I weighed a lot of things in making it. So many it would take me hours to talk about all of them. I think I hit some important things though.

For one thing, Toaster & Leafsnail are for it, and Tiruin is against it. If they're right and Tiruin is a spy, then they're probably both rebels, and that means there's at least two rebels on the team. I find Dariush to be a pretty strong rebel. I find ZU to be ... ZU, I guess. Nothing from him that seems off at all.

I haven't actually read or played in a game where Dariush wasn't some flavor of scum. I just feel like I'm playing with a town flavor of him right now. He's different somehow. Largely I suppose it's because I've seen some of his reads change through the game. He seems to usually find a target and stick with it until they're dead. Of course, that doesn't work in this game, but the same principle still applies, I think.

Anyways, this post got long and I'd better post it before the thread suddenly gets locked without warning.
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Its official! Ford! You need to put it in your sig now! "Official Mafia Welcomer!"

Leafsnail

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #283 on: February 22, 2013, 11:24:51 pm »

I'm really, really curious what it is that you dislike about my play.
It was the way your actual motives appeared to differ from your stated motives (in terms of not self-advocating but defending your inclusion on the team indirectly, and sortof-defending Nerjin).  Your recent posts have been a lot better though (particularly drunk reads and the interesting catch on Tiruin).

By the way, NQT's argument about 0-33% and 33-100% is absolutely correct, and ZU is absolutely wrong. Just putting that out there.
NQT's argument is broadly correct, but the way he's expressing it is statistical nonsense, and exaggerates the statistical difference.  I think there's only a few percentage points in it once you take into account how unlikely it is that multiple spies made it on to the first mission, especially when the spies have little incentive to get more than one of themselves onto the first mission (I know you'll say WIFOM but it would be a really dumb form of WIFOM that almost certainly would not help them in any way).
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Tiruin

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Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« Reply #284 on: February 23, 2013, 01:03:03 am »

PFP

Alright, Ford. Whether you believe me or not, I'm siding with LS's analysis here. I believe that there was only one spy in the team I picked (which wasn't me but whatever). Reasoning behind it is that if Spy: I wouldn't want to incriminate someone else (because I'm sabotaging here) even if that person would presumably follow my not-so-subtle-hint there, also I would've expected a downrate from that person because of the probability of 2 spies or what not. If Rebel: I'd be totally unsure and still would've picked those that the majority would've upvoted (reasons aside) because from that point, there would finally be some meaningful debate on who would or would not either forward their wincondition and sabotage - the short-term goal (in the case of spy, and sabotage); lie low and proceed as a sleeper agent, more than likely successfully hiding under the guise of a loyal rebel [chance of being detected is lower based on the proceeding # of people and the person's day play] (Long term goal: spy, no sabotage) or in the reason that everyone was a rebel, I'm still siding with the first sentence after this situation. Best thing is, my only read on LS/Toaster is the former is the spy, but only on intuition.

Now for a bit of reasoning and speculation.
Quote
I think Leafsnail was right back when he said that it was more important to identify rebels than spies. That's part of what this team is going to help with. I hope.
Why I downvoted is that there was a repeat member from the first group. Not everyone who should've gone on a mission was tried (that means, from the 1st to 2nd mission, at least everyone should've done one). Why I believe so is because spies would sabotage first and lay low later unless the situation is good enough for them to pass up a mission. Currently, the team doesn't follow that condition. A repeat test could mostly end up in failure - if LS is scum, and it wouldn't matter as its only one more mission left for the spies. If LS is town, then this still leaves the other three at large if there is a sabotage. You can tell that I'm leaning heavily on the fact that there will be a sabotage based on my reads on the people mentioned.

And enough with my rambling anyway. Thought to just get that out, and I'm not a spy but I'm lacking in any evidence that seems to aid my position based on...assumptions.

Quote
Toaster didn't know how many sabotages there were, but you mistook the score tally for the sabotage/success vote tally. Which is far more likely if you already knew how many spies were on the team. It should have been 1:2, not 1:0. It's an odd mistake to make unless you already knew what number you were looking for.
That was me forwarding a guess. Followed by a weak reason behind it after the ellipsis.
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