Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[notquitethere]

Basically what Ford said. You ask rhetorical leading questions and point out stuff while weakly poking people and immediatly retract all statements as innocent the moment they retract. Seriously, why the hell would you point out the people who didn't interact with DS if you don't consider it a sign of, well, anything?

I pointed it out because it was a fact about Deathsword and my aim in that post was to collate all the facts about Deathsword. I found it interesting and didn't know what conclusions to draw from the matter so I raised it. Is trying to discuss concrete information so scummy?

[Tiruin]

PFP

I do enjoy how people play a game where no roleflips occur like a mafia one - reading someone stating an opinion contradictory to their own as suspicious/scum-like. I'll just shorten this post away from any emotions I have or stuff.


ToonyMan

Also, the second statement is up for fallibility. He could've organized a team with spies in it, but then they would've laid low just to put the assumption that he's clean

If the spies laylow on the first mission then they're making a really bad move.

I don't really like this though, I'd much prefer if the team we organize we actually have fairly confident town reads instead of putting people with suspicions in there.  If I were you Tiruin I would put myself and two people I could see not being spies.

So let's go on with the next team:
Tiruin
Toaster
Leafsnail

Fine, I'll up-vote this.

Why do you fine lying low on the first mission a bad move? It can give the idea that the team was fully town aligned.

On the second, I note a sense of apprehension in the 'Fine...'

Could you say why you upvoted that list?

[...]And while Tiruin's posts always bother the hell out of me[...]

And dude, look. If you've any problem with my posts/playstyle, could you at least tell me what they are? Always is such a harsh word when used here. All I want to do is to play a game wherein my quirks don't affect me in a holistic way. While I could just drop a 'this annoys me', I want this kind of labeling to end. What the hell is your problem with me anyway?


NQT

Sure Nerjin: best case scenario, Tiruin, Leafsnail and Toaster are all spies (100%), and the remaining 6 of us are 0% spy. Worst case scenario, only one of them is a spy, leaving two spies among the remaining six of us, or 33%. Mathematically, there's a higher range of possible spies among Tiruin, Leafsnail and Toaster than the rest of. Thus, we should exclude them from the next mission. The chances will obviously change when we get the results of the next mission, but right now it would be downright idiotic to put forward any of those three.

Take my word for this - whether I'm town or scum, it doesn't matter - there was one spy. I'll be clarifying this later. (I mean, I would say that I'm town here but by the looks of such, that's pretty fallible)

Query though: What do you think of the team suggested, and who do you feel is scum at the moment? What I see from most of your posts is a neutral-confirmative viewpoint, wherein you're trying to piece together who is what from their stances.


Dariush: I request you to replace Leafsnail with Yourself in the list.

I've searched through the thread on what I think are pertinent examples of why you're against putting the team leader in the team and found:

Spoiler: Post 1 (click to show/hide)

Dariush:  Mission two, four people go out, and there are two sabotages.  Mission one was a success, and one of the three people on mission one went on mission two.  How do you gauge the four mission two people?

What do you mean, how do I gauge them? I know that among them is one person who is at least 66% likely to be scum and that whoever organized or approved of the team is either an idiot or scum, because there's really no sane reason to do so, since if the repeater is scum, then he basically handed the scumteam the victory.

Spoiler: Post 2 (click to show/hide)

Take yourself out and put someone else there.  I'm not voting in support with this group otherwise.  We should have a rule where the team organizer can not nominate themselves, this would put restrictions on the spy team, especially later in the game.  The freedom fighters do not suffer from this (unless we've confirmed every spy somehow and then this rule is silly, but then again the game would pretty much be decided).

I vote for this suggestion. Actually, before Nerjin's post I thought this was enforced by the mod. The leader's task is (if he is a rebel, obviously) to help town (and himself) learn the alignments of other people, since he already knows his own.

Spoiler: Post 3 (click to show/hide)

ZU:

Dariush: Why did you up vote?

Simply put, I don't think spies would contend themselves with the first result rolled. It's more a gut feeling than anything else that they woud try to manipulate the result to get a certain set of people while making the result look random. Also, I despise Toony's shameless tunneling attempts, so that automatically raises my opinion of Nerjin.

Also, I wonder why you read Leafsnail as town over toony after calling the former out for WIFOM here


Downvoting that list btw. I believe Leafsnail is scum, and you're trying to push a 2nd Spy sabotage at the moment. Regardless of being connected or not, let's put this situation in which I'm town:

You brought leafsnail - one of two suspects that I as the leader have no idea is a spy - over ToonyMan, something which goes against your principles of finding scum via your methods mentioned above.

I mean, while you've a feeling that ToonyMan is scum, you're not acting upon the 'give everyone a chance' idea you're leaning upon. To forward my opinion of you, you declaimed me as scum just because of an opinion of Nerjin.

If I can request your opinion (in a holistic manner), why would I defend my scumbuddy like so in the post you picked about? Why, exactly (provide a quote please) do you think Nerjin is scum?

And in another way (not hypothetical), do you believe that I'm connected with Nerjin? Why? Because I believe he's town or...

Lastly

Swap LS and yourself out for anybody who isn't Toony (or Nerjin, for that matter), or else I'm downvoting.

I noted that your attitude towards LS has been mostly vague at the time of this post, but you somehow warmed up to him and added him to the team now,

Why the mistrust of LS before?

Spoiler: My explanation on why I believe Team leader in the team helps Rebels (click to show/hide)

> No roleflips.
> Everyone can speak until game end - 5 missions with differing team picks and leaders.

Now, while people may develop scum/town reads on everyone else, the determining factor is in the teams picked.

If the team leader includes him/herself in the team, this narrows down the concluding results into the number of people chosen (3 team > 3 suspects) without inserting the opportunity for a scum leader to pick a spy, or a town leader to pick a spy. If the leader is scum, he'll be incriminating himself if he doesn't pick another buddy, or has to defend his stand if he goes alone. If its a town leader, then there's no hurt in picking the other two, as you are town yourself, the only other suspects are the ones you pick and therefore they're where you should focus.
Pretty much easy to quantify, actually.

Think0028: If you're alive at all, the lurkertracker is still suffering from that <class 'sqlite3.IntegrityError'> hiccup D:

So I had a nosebleed in fixing everything and every post...

PPE: Dar.

AW COME ON. I had to manually search your posts and you post RIGHT NOW?! Added a sentence to the above (apologies if this post is unorganized - currently stressed, busy and fearing for my blood pressure)

... :/

[notquitethere]

Everyone: my experience with this game had been:

Be enthusiastic -> Must be scum
Be logical -> Probably scum
Try to be helpful -> Definitely scum

Deathsword's experience was:

Say nothing -> Probably town

My conclusion is that actively playing looks suspicious.


In any case, I've downvoted due to the Leafsnail presence. Too risky to send a confirmed maybe-spy on the mission. I think most of everyone's so-called reads are blind gropings in the dark and it's better to rely on actual facts that we have available and the fact is LS is wholly capable of lying and fronting as town and is 33% to 100% spy while everyone else is 0-33% spy and Dariush's vote is exactly the sort of scenario that would make spies want to put more than one spy on a team. I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

[Tiruin]

Be enthusiastic -> Must be scum
Be logical -> Probably scum
Try to be helpful -> Definitely scum

Deathsword's experience was:

Say nothing -> Probably town

Erm, actually, the first three are just assumptions given (and strangely generalized by many for some reason...) because it goes along with the idea that in a Mafia game "scum know who the others are, know who to lynch and just should survive, when they're not under heat, they can relax - this is the sign of a newbie mafioso." This is just what I can infer though.

[Leafsnail]

That team is acceptable.

Dariush: I request you to replace Leafsnail with Yourself in the list.

So are you saying you want Dariush to be on the team twice?

That said I can see the argument for excluding me from the team.

Everyone: my experience with this game had been:

Be enthusiastic -> Must be scum
Be logical -> Probably scum
Try to be helpful -> Definitely scum

Deathsword's experience was:

Say nothing -> Probably town

My conclusion is that actively playing looks suspicious.

You are wrong and bitter.  All three of the people sent on the first mission were actively playing the game.  Everyone on the currently proposed mission is actively playing the game.

I don't think anybody rated Deathsword as town.  Nerjin tried to send him on a mission but only due to randomization, and basically everyone rejected that.

a confirmed maybe-spy

This is a great turn of phrase.

[zombie urist]

In any case, I've downvoted due to the Leafsnail presence. Too risky to send a confirmed maybe-spy on the mission. I think most of everyone's so-called reads are blind gropings in the dark and it's better to rely on actual facts that we have available and the fact is LS is wholly capable of lying and fronting as town and is 33% to 100% spy while everyone else is 0-33% spy and Dariush's vote is exactly the sort of scenario that would make spies want to put more than one spy on a team. I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

Are you stuuuuuuuuupid??? EVERYONE IS EITHER A SPY OR NOT. You can't be 1/3 of a spy. That being said, the chance of ANY given person being a spy is 33%.

Be enthusiastic -> Must be scum
Be logical -> Probably scum
Try to be helpful -> Definitely scum

You must be definitely be scum then. 

Dariush: I request you to replace Leafsnail with Yourself in the list.

Are you actually paying attention lol?

I think I'll vote up.

[Nerjin]

Hm... I'm gonna vote down here in a minute due to the fact that Leafsnail WAS on a mission that was sabatoged. Maybe that's simply coincidence, I'm not denying that, but at this juncture I'm not feeling confident enough in him to vote yes.

[Captain Ford]

So why do you think he voted it down?

"To Look Town"

Which is pretty much what I already said. Nerjin already nailed what I was going to say, and in fewer words, too. Enough people were outspoken against the team that DS could easily see it was going to fail. It would have been trivial for him to parrot one of their arguments, and that's probably what he was planning to do.

But the biggest problem with your logic is that Tiruin upvoted. So either you're the other spy, or your logic is flawed.


Wow, a lot has happened since last night.

I need to leave for work now, but I'll have something more to say by day's end.

[ToonyMan]

ToonyMan

Also, the second statement is up for fallibility. He could've organized a team with spies in it, but then they would've laid low just to put the assumption that he's clean

If the spies laylow on the first mission then they're making a really bad move.

I don't really like this though, I'd much prefer if the team we organize we actually have fairly confident town reads instead of putting people with suspicions in there.  If I were you Tiruin I would put myself and two people I could see not being spies.

So let's go on with the next team:
Tiruin
Toaster
Leafsnail

Fine, I'll up-vote this.

Why do you fine lying low on the first mission a bad move? It can give the idea that the team was fully town aligned.

The goal of this game is to get three wins first, wasting the first round to the enemy team is dumb.

Could you say why you upvoted that list?

You did exactly as I said, rejecting it would be weird and contrary.

[...]And while Tiruin's posts always bother the hell out of me[...]

And dude, look. If you've any problem with my posts/playstyle, could you at least tell me what they are? Always is such a harsh word when used here. All I want to do is to play a game wherein my quirks don't affect me in a holistic way. While I could just drop a 'this annoys me', I want this kind of labeling to end. What the hell is your problem with me anyway?

I legitimately don't understand what you're trying to say half the time, it's not really "bothers me because he's scummy" and more "bothers me because what the heck is he trying to say??".  I probably state this every single game.

I voted yes.  ZU's list looks pretty good other than listing Captain Ford as town.

I'm flattered but I don't think this is a very good team.  It has NQT and Ford on it, and I'm pretty sure one of them is the third spy.

Leafsnail
Dariush
zombie urist
Captain Ford

That team is acceptable.

Why is Ford suddenly okay??  The only change I see is here and you decide to accept Ford to replace NQT's position in Toaster's list, which I must mention completes ignores what I say against him and instead just showers me in "he's totally tooown for some reason".

In any case, I've downvoted due to the Leafsnail presence. Too risky to send a confirmed maybe-spy on the mission. I think most of everyone's so-called reads are blind gropings in the dark and it's better to rely on actual facts that we have available and the fact is LS is wholly capable of lying and fronting as town and is 33% to 100% spy while everyone else is 0-33% spy and Dariush's vote is exactly the sort of scenario that would make spies want to put more than one spy on a team. I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

Are you stuuuuuuuuupid??? EVERYONE IS EITHER A SPY OR NOT. You can't be 1/3 of a spy. That being said, the chance of ANY given person being a spy is 33%.

Be enthusiastic -> Must be scum
Be logical -> Probably scum
Try to be helpful -> Definitely scum

You must be definitely be scum then. 

Dariush: I request you to replace Leafsnail with Yourself in the list.

Are you actually paying attention lol?
I think I'll vote up.

This entire post is cocky as shit, spy scum.

I'm voting down of course since it wouldn't surprise me at all if this team has two spies or even all three.

[Leafsnail]

I've disliked Ford's play for most of the game and ideally I'd keep him out of the team, but at the end of the day you have to be realistic with the team you're trying to get.  Captain Ford seems less scum than Nerjin/NQT, and I've realized it's not going to be possible to have a team without all three of them (only two of them can be scum anyway).

I don't get the point of the post you linked.  Yeah, the spies must have approved of the team pretty willingly.  Why wouldn't they?  They won that round.  And I don't see why the fact that he'd have to have the same rolename as you is a remotely damning piece of evidence.

[Leafsnail]

(only two of them can be scum anyway).

To further clarify: the fact that only two of them can be scum is something we learnt after I made the first post you quoted.

[Captain Ford]

...I am so confused right now. I've written like a half dozen posts and had to scrap them all. My mother's getting married this weekend and I'm just not able to concentrate enough on the game to put my jumbled thoughts together. So I'm going to have leave them as jumbled thoughts.

I've seen some things I didn't before. Toaster makes a good case for Tiruin being a spy. That Toaster and Leafsnail both point the finger at him is and not at each other says to me that they're either right, or they're both scum (I guess that doesn't follow logically. But it's a gut feeling)

I did the math on including people from the first mission and was surprised by the results. Turns out (from a purely mathematical perspective), we're better off not including anyone from the first team, which runs contrary to what I was expecting.

Spoiler: Extended Cut (click to show/hide)

Chances of an all-rebel team on the second mission:
15.63% - If we don't take anyone from the first mission
14.06% - If we take one person from the first mission
9.38% - If we take two people from the first mission
0% - If we take all three from the first mission (obviously, but it was worth doing to verify my math)

There are 9 players and 3 spies. That gives 84 possible combinations.
After the first mission, we can eliminate the 20 combinations in which Tiruin, Leafsnail and Toaster are all rebels.

That leaves us with 64 combinations:
- 45 in which one of them is a rebel.
- 18 in which two of them are rebels.
- 1 in which all three are rebels.

And from here on out, the math gets kind of heavy...

P(X,Y) = Chance of an all rebel team
X = # of members on the first team who are also taken on the second
Y = # of members on the first team who are spies

P(0,1) = (4/6)*(3/5)*(2/4)*(1/3) = 1/15
P(0,2) = (5/6)*(4/5)*(3/4)*(2/3) = 1/3
P(0,3) = 1
Overall = (1/15)*(45/64) + (1/3)*(18/64) + (1/1)*(1/64) = 10/64 = 15.63%

P(1,1) = (4/6)*(3/5)*(2/4)*(2/3) = 2/15
P(1,2) = (5/6)*(4/5)*(3/4)*(1/3) = 1/6
P(1,3) = 0
Overall = (2/15)*(45/64) + (1/6)*(18/64) + 0*(1/64) = 9/64 = 14.06%

P(2,1) = (4/6)*(3/5)*(2/3)*(1/2) = 2/15
P(2,2) = 0
P(2,3) = 0
Overall = (2/15)*(45/64) + 0*(18/64) + 0*(1/64) = 6/64 = 9.38%

P(3,1) = 0
P(3,2) = 0
P(3,3) = 0
Overall = 0

I find it really bizarre that they all worked out to have denominators of 32 or 64.
...oh wait... *facepalm*. That's because it's effectively saying how many of the 64 combinations would lead to an all-rebel team under those circumstances.

Incidentally, I also ran the math after accounting for the fact I'm a rebel, which eliminates 18 possibilities and simply changes the denominators from 64 to 48.

And yes, I will continue to do this as the game goes on. For me, it's an anchor in a sea of uncertainty. Math doesn't lie. It doesn't deceive. People can lie, and they can be wrong. You can fault my math, but don't fault me for using math.

By the way, I read Toony as town now. I have for a while now. As crappy as that stunt he pulled was, I have to admit that he really doesn't come off as a spy. The way that GlyphGryph phrased his response to my question made me think he never actually gave rolenames out to spies (he thought about it too much, which implied it hadn't come up before). Still possible he did, of course. Can't rule anything out.

I'd personally rather see Toony on this team than Leafsnail. Leafsnail's been too quiet for my liking.

I've disliked Ford's play for most of the game

I'm really, really curious what it is that you dislike about my play.

I know you were bothered by the fact that I didn't self-advocate. I find it awkward, and I'm personally terrified of looking like a braggart. I also don't take compliments very well ... I've never really understood how one is supposed to respond to one. I tend to just ignore things like that because trying to deal with them makes me uncomfortable.

I attacked Toony's attack on Nerjin because I saw three other people line up behind him, calling both him and his argument "awesomely town", and no one raised any criticism or counterpoints whatsoever. And it was a terrible, terrible ploy. I'm still appalled that you, Toaster and NQT supported it so blithely.

Most of my scumhunting centers around trying to understand and communicate with the other players. In my experience, if two people disagree, it's almost always because of information asymmetry (one person sees something the other doesn't). So I proceed by explaining my point of view, in the hopes that either you can point out what I'm missing, or I can help you figure out what you're missing.

I'm disappointed that you chose to dismiss my point of view entirely (as "splitting hairs") rather than try to help me see your point of view. I saw you as scummy primarily because you were criticizing discussions rather than participating in them.

...I suddenly think you might be a spy again. I guess I had good reasons before. Huh. Full circle.

Well, I'm probably going to downvote now. That would mean I'm next up to decide on a team, and at this point, I'd probably just replace Leafsnail with Toony. I'm sure Dariush wouldn't be happy about that, but I think it's better than taking NQT or Nerjin.

By the way, NQT's argument about 0-33% and 33-100% is absolutely correct, and ZU is absolutely wrong. Just putting that out there.

Man, my head feels like it's full of dust or something. I think I have too much hair.

[Toaster]

...man, I could have sworn I posted that I voted up for that team.  Oh well.  In any case, I did vote Yes for that team.



Ford:  For the record, I'm almost positive I've seen Town Toony pull that same stunt before.  I haven't seen any particularly town play from Nerjin regardless.  Do you have any examples you want to point out?

Also, math is all well and good, but don't use statistics as an argument or I will laugh at you.


NQT:

Everyone: my experience with this game had been:

Be enthusiastic -> Must be scum
Be logical -> Probably scum
Try to be helpful -> Definitely scum

Deathsword's experience was:

Say nothing -> Probably town

My conclusion is that actively playing looks suspicious.

This is the wrong conclusion to draw.  Let me put it this way:  presenting a lot of information is helpful, but scum can present facts equally well as town can.  What matters is what conclusions are drawn from it.

[Captain Ford]

I cannot take anything seriously right now. I'm sorry.

I was going to give my reads, but this is what came out:

Spoiler: My Slurred Night-Drunken Reads List (click to show/hide)

I feel like doing this thing I'm doing now. Which might be giving reads.

Tiruin - Spy? Yes you are. You are the cutest little spy ever. ...or you're not.
Ladies - In my bathtub. For dinner. Yum.
Toony - Townie? Wait. I hate him.
Dariush - Lovable codgable old bastard. Or something. I forget the word. Codg-something.
GlyphGryph - Might be the moderator. But I thought this game had no power roles?
Toaster - I'd let him toast my bread.
Leafsnail - I had snails in my fish tank once. They multiplied. It was amazing.
Toony - Leprechaun. Wait, did he slip in here twice?
Nerjin - Scummy. Dunno why. Little things, mostly.
Notquitethere - And you said you didn't need another BM. Aren't you just adorable.
Tiruin - Might be a girl in disguise. I would need to see his hair.

I think I forgot somebody...but I can't think of who.

(I am too amused by this to not post it. Besides, it may contain a few relevant things here and there.)

I should probably just go to bed.

PPE: Toaster

...huh. I might still upvote that team. Fark. I am the last person to weigh in. With 4 votes up and 4 votes down, that gives me the deciding vote. Bugger.

Ugh...has it been established whether or not weekends count towards the deadline? I'm going to be totally unavailable for discussion during that time. Since I'm next up, that would be a problem.

I hate to make a decision based on meta issues, but in my view, LS is pretty much an equal trade with Toony. Since that's the only change I'd make, and I want to be around for my turn in the sun, I think I'll give this team an upvote.

Oh, and of course, neither Dariush or that other guy on the team (whose name completely escapes me right now and I can't be bothered to look up) have done anything to rouse my suspicions. Except for existing, of course. The organizer having a town read is a huge plus.

I'm going to vote up now before I lose my nerve. I honestly think this team has a good shot at success, but the upcoming wedding has me on the verge of wanting to curl up into a ball and whimper.

I still don't know what I'm going to wear.

[Toaster]

I'm sure you'll look lovely in your dress.