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[Nerjin]

... I'm just saying that we shouldn't discout it. I'm also saying it's unlikely.

PFP

[zombie urist]

No NQT you are wroooong.

Label all players a-i. We'll say that amongst a,b,c there is exactly 1 spy and thus 2 spies among the rest. I doubt theres two spies and its almost impossible there's three spies.

So then, assuming we choose randomly, what's the best way to minimize the chance of choosing a spy?
The actual best way is to choose 1 from among a,b,c and the rest of the d-i. The probability of getting a spy is also equal to choosing 2 from a,b,c and the other 2 from d-i.

The exact number is (2/3)(4/6)(3/5)(2/4) = 2/15 chance of no spies chosen.
If we choose randomly only from d-i, the chance of no spies is (4/6)(3/5)(2/4)(1/3) = 1/15.
Thus we actually DOUBLE the chance of choosing no spies if we select 1 from the 3 already.

ONOH, these probabilites are reversed if theres actually 2 spies amonst a,b,c but the chance of that is significantly less than the above.

[zombie urist]

The bolded part is incorrect. One of the three is a spy who sabatoged. They may all be spies, doubtful but it is a possibility we'd be foolish to overlook. The only question is: Is that plausible? No, I think not. But we should not rule it out.

How is that at all different from what I said?

[zombie urist]

Reason? On both, for that matter?
Why hilarious - what does that mean?

I think your wrong about Nerjin. Also I have no clue why you ever put up Ford, NQT, and Nerjin as a team. Also, I think Toaster and LS are more towny than you.

I find it funny. Just do.

[Tiruin]

PFFP

Hey, instead of the petty insults, why don't you all try saying why you think x is over y, and why x is scummier than y, eh?

Assuming by the process of elimination and whatever else that exists, all I see presented are vague topics and opinionated statements. Why is Leafsnail town-ish. Why am I scum-ish?

ZU ; Dariush ; Leafsnail: Could you at least give reasons. Pertinent and comprehensive ones?

You're all spouting the 'I think x is more towny than you,' why? How will that help find scum, or at least discriminate who from what?

That means that either Tiruin, Toaster, or Leafsnail is a spy.  Since the spies can't communicate with each other I doubt they would hope the other sabotages.  This also means the other two are most most likely town.

Because obviously spies didn't have a day to discuss things beforehand and are too stupid to figure out a way to make sure only one sabotage happens in case more than one spy goes on a mission, right?

Why aren't you nominating yourself Dariush?  Aren't you town?

Lolwat. Unlike a certain fucktard named Tiruin and another certain fucktardical cretin named ToonyMan I prefer to adhere to the rules that help us find scum (because unlike the aforementioned fucktard and fucktardical cretin, I am actually interested in finding scum).

And this is one last warning to you Dariush. You can be a verbal idiot, you can exhibit a personality borne of vulgarity, but you do not do stupidity such as this if you're totally unsure about who did what!

I mean, damn. That very remark made a spike on my scum-dar about you, because...well, what. First you appear alright - neutral in the sense of picking teams and conversing with me - then you shift from that attitude to open hostility at the result of such. What I see is that you're trying to convince others by either attacking the person and not their statements, or just denouncing them for their ideas.

If you can't get a fucking diplomatic attitude, in the very least, then this is your last warning. Damned be I if you're town by the way.

I mean, seriously? At least now I get why Vector hates your meta. You can't explain anything else but through the rage of a blithering idiot.


Dariush: Could you explain why the three you've picked are 'more towny' in your eyes, including Leafsnail? I've seen nothing about that except you inferring and alluding the label of 'Town' as an explanation without quoting why.

This also goes for those who think I'm scum.

Besides, why'd you pick Leafsnail over ToonyMan, the only other person who would go from your plan. You're picking a guy straight from the last mission without regard of the other reserve we have.

Leafsnail:

I guess Tiruin is scum afterall, especially now he's defending Nerjin.  Ballsier than I expected to put himself on the team.

What I think of when I see this is that you were the saboteur and are framing me on it due to...the brevity and lack of depth in your explanation here. I mean, why is Nerjin scum for you? I don't have the guts to do something like that - especially when its only a short term goal.

Meaning: I'm not stupid to just insert myself into the team then sabotage it, after giving off what I've said of what I'll do in the mission. Hell, given the survivors (3 scum), it would be a miracle to top off the rest of the missions unless people start shutting their ears and only believe what they want to believe without trusting others.

[Tiruin]

EBWOP

To clarify

It seems you're not even trying to figure this out. Or perhaps you missed my explanation?

I opened the spoiler, saw that you quoted a shitty stuttering quote from Nerjin without mentioning any of the scummy shit he pulled off while engaging in horrendous amount of WIFOM regarding to spies voting on teams, closed it, chalked a -1 to you and scrolled down. Fuck you and fuck Nerjin.

Also, why aren't you suspicious of them? What's the reasoning behind that?

Because they didn't pull off any scummy shit so far. Considering that all three of them (barring ZU, maybe) are more or less newbies, 'not pulling off scummy shit' counts double.

I did see what Nerjin was at, what I stated (and thought was obviously hinted) by my post back there was that despite what is generally seen of Nerjin, I can detect something off from the status quo about him. WIFOM? Seems more to me like badly made interpretations, denounced as WIFOM because its fallible enough to switch for another, seemingly better alternative. Nextly, just because I state my opinion on Nerjin aligns me with him? How does that reasoning seem sound, especially to one such as you?

Also, what is scummy to you? And by this I mean, could you state that without any expletives. Please.

If there's anything wrong with what I said here, please do tell of you idea.

[ToonyMan]

I should make a general read post.

The hopelessly optimistic scenario (difficulty rating ★★/★★★★★):
Nerjin, Tiruin, and Captain Ford(or Dariush) are the spies.  This is coincidentally the same team (replace Dariush with NQT) Leafsnail seems to pin.

The nulltell scenario (difficulty rating ★★★★/★★★★★):
I have absolutely zero reads of NQT (besides my knee-jerk reaction) and ZU so if they're both spies along with either Tiruin/Toaster/Leafsnail I don't know how to beat that.

The oh god we're doomed scenario (difficult rating ★★★★★★★★★★/★★★★★):
Toaster, Leafsnail, and Dariush are the spies.

In all honesty, right now I'm reading Nerjin more as scapegoat town at this point and with the first mission flopped I'm more willing to trust him (I wouldn't say this clears Ford but if Leafsnail is a spy then I highly doubt Ford is too).  And while Tiruin's posts always bother the hell out of me, Toaster's blatantly buddying me and Leafsnail's "expertise" in pinning the entirely too obvious scum team (most of the Nerjin case for instance, look at how Urist Imik goes down in BYOR11).  I know UI was a third-party scum in that game but there are no third-party scum in this one.

[Dariush]

I'd suggest you and Toony to replace them.  You're getting really angry at Toony for no reason but I don't see how you can actually read him scum when you look at his interactions with Nerjin.

No Toony. I'd agree with pretty much anyone, hell, even Tiruin, except Nerjin and Toony. Explain your reads on NQT and Ford (with quotes, preferably) and I'll revise my opinion.

As for interactions with Nerjin, every post by either of them makes me more and more certain that the whole setup was a crazy-ass bus. Just look here:

In all honesty, right now I'm reading Nerjin more as scapegoat town

He spent the entire D1 doing pretty much nothing except pouring tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and tons (well, you get the general idea) of shit on Nerjin and now suddenly he does a 180 on his read, based on the whooptastically towny fact that Nerjin wasn't on the team that is guaranteed to contain a spy.

Dariush, I can understand your reticence but after reading through the various arguments, I think we should allow self-selection: spies can always put other spies on the team. The only thing non-spies can be sure of is that they're not a spy. Not allowing self-selection removes one of the few weapons in the true revolutionary's arsenal. Am I wrong?

Well, I had a nifty argument written against self-selection which I forgot to quote in my previous post, but on second thought you're pretty much correct.

Just a heads up: at this stage, I will downvote any team that has Tiruin, Leafsnail or Toaster on it unless anyone can give me a compelling counterargument. Each of them has a 33-100% percent chance to be a spy. Everyone else has a 0-33% chance to be a spy. There's no good reason at this stage to include any of them in the next team.

While your statistics are correct, I greatly dislike the fact that you completely ignore the personal scumminess of everyone involved. Why did you do so?

Dariush: Could you explain why the three you've picked are 'more towny' in your eyes, including Leafsnail? I've seen nothing about that except you inferring and alluding the label of 'Town' as an explanation without quoting why.

I've already explained. I consider town whomever I don't consider scum. I don't really care that LS was on the last mission, because I am far more suspicious of you (mostly (but not entirely) due to the whole opinion reversal on Toaster and defending Nerjin over a crappy quote) and I have a negative gut feeling about Toaster. The rest go by process of elimination: Nerjin and Toony are thrown out immediatly, and we're left with four people (plus LS) who can go. I am slowly becoming suspicious of NQT due to trying to bruteforce the setup without paying the attention to people's scumminess.

Besides, why'd you pick Leafsnail over ToonyMan, the only other person who would go from your plan. You're picking a guy straight from the last mission without regard of the other reserve we have.

Aaaand you're doing the same crap NQT does. I don't care that LS was on the mission, and I explained numerous times why I'm deeply suspicious of Toony. Just because you're too lazy to read doesn't mean I didn't explain my reads.

To recap, for now I'm thinking to send Dariush, LS, Ford and ZU on the mission _{and like hell I'm going to blue out each individual name again}.

[ToonyMan]

When you vote that team in red I'll be sure to down-vote it.

[Dariush]

When you vote that team in red I'll be sure to down-vote it.

Poor spy got offended that he isn't included? Aww, cry me a river, you shitsack. Or, arguably more useful in the long run (though definitely not in the short one), give your reasons. Maybe that will help us definitively identify your other scummates.

[notquitethere]

Dariush

While your statistics are correct, I greatly dislike the fact that you completely ignore the personal scumminess of everyone involved. Why did you do so?

I think it's best to make short lists and then look at the personal scumminess of each person in that list. So I'm not completely ignoring personal reads- I see that they're important in winning this game- but I think we should give extra weighting to concrete mission-based information. As such, your team is unacceptable with Leafsnail on it.

Another concrete piece of information that has been under-analysed is Deathsword's spy status. I intend now to review Deathsword's interactions with everyone and everyone's interactions with him, giving some personal reads.


ZU, I see your point, but as we have no idea how likely it was that the first team had more than one spy in it. If I was in the pre-game spy discussion, I'd have quickly set up a spy pecking order (alphabetically?) wherein if more than one spy is on the team, one takes precedence for voting over the other. As this would have been very easy to arrange, I don't think we can rule out the idea of multiple spies deliberately or accidentally being put on the same team.

[ToonyMan]

@Dariush:
I'm glad you agreed to self-nominate now (it's bizarre you didn't at first, just like how you totally hated Leafsnail [and me] however he's cool now yeah), but I don't want Leafsnail or Ford on that team and I'm sure neither of them want the other.  ZU is whatever.

Another concrete piece of information that has been under-analysed is Deathsword's spy status. I intend now to review Deathsword's interactions with everyone and everyone's interactions with him, giving some personal reads.

Ford thinks otherwise, for some insane reason.

[zombie urist]

ZU, I see your point, but as we have no idea how likely it was that the first team had more than one spy in it. If I was in the pre-game spy discussion, I'd have quickly set up a spy pecking order (alphabetically?) wherein if more than one spy is on the team, one takes precedence for voting over the other. As this would have been very easy to arrange, I don't think we can rule out the idea of multiple spies deliberately or accidentally being put on the same team.

It doesn't matter exactly how likely it is that the first team had more spies on it. It only matters that P(1 spy on first team) > P(2 spies on first team).

While we can't rule it out completely at this point, I do think its not worth considering too much, since I only have scumm reads from Tiruin. 

[notquitethere]

The Death of Deathsword - A Spy Spotting Guide

Good luck wringing anything out of that.

Deathsword was a spy. He also was lurker and didn't leave many posts. But he did leave some evidence and perhaps we might learn something from it. So here I have collated a record of DS related posts in one easily digestible post.

The first salient point is that Deathsword was against self-nomination:

I agree that one shouldn't self-nominate, especially in the early missions (and even more so in the first one) where suspicions aren't fully-formed and a spy could easily self-nominate into the team.

Interactions He Had With Others

Nerjin

@Deathsword: If you could be certain of one person's role who would you choose to know about and why?

Tiruin, since he is the player here which I have the most trouble reading.

notquitethere

NQT: Since you told Nerjin to go for that team, what are you thoughts on self-nominating, and what changes would you do to that team if you were to be named organizer right now?

I think it makes sense to send the more active players on the first mission, as we'll get more of a response from them when questioning the results. Disallowing team-pickers to pick themselves removes one tool from the spy arsenal, so I can broadly assent to this policy (though I'm not sure what difference it will make either way).

(It is worth noting that I've since been convinced of the exact opposite view, having changed my mind in face of superior argument.)

DS: Deathsword, me old buddy, me old pal. I'm not even going to bother questioning you because you must be a fellow freedom fighter...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

...only joking. Who do you think is most likely to be a spy and why?

DS never replied to this. The faux-buddying was a joke between us from the Mafia and Masons game.

Toaster
Toaster never directly interacted with Deathsword but they did call DS out for lurking:

I voted Yes (admittably, fairly knee-jerk) on the team for two reasons:  I'm on it and I don't have negative reads of Tiruin and Deathsword.  I can totally see the arguments for totally random teams being bad, especially since my read of Nerjin is plummeting scumward.

I checked back, and my reads of those two are null because they haven't posted jack.  Trying to change my vote now to No, because sending two unknowns won't help anything, plus that whole Nerjin bit.

Toaster also paints Deathsword with "associative guilt":

Toaster, why did you note that Nerjin gave us the first result he got, but didn't act on it in any way? Do you not consider that a sign of townness?

No.  For all we know he was intending to repeat until he got scum, but got lucky first try.  (Yes, I now think there is associative guilt on Tiruin and Deathsword.)  Choosing three random people gives a 5/6* chance of putting at least one scum on the random team, so it's hardly a point in his favor that he went with the first one.

I didn't act on it because it's not useful.

Toonyman
Toonyman and Deathsword never directly interacted, but Toonyman does have this to say:

Toaster is on the team list that Nerjin RNG'd but I would place more money on Deathsword and Tiruin for spy right now.

People Voting For Deathsword

Nerjin 'randomly' picked a team including Deathsword:

http://invisiblecastle.com/roller/view/3917841/


2. Tiruin
3. Deathsword
10. Toaster


Completely random, does not take any of the people who are WIFOMing even a little. There, that is the team I propose.

NQT:  What is your view of the new team?

I don't have a strong read on DS and Tiruin yet, but Toaster seems okay.

Tiruin was asked what team he'd put forward and he said the same Deathsword-including team that Nerjin 'randomly' picked. Tiruin defends his choice of Deathsword:

So, seeing as I'm in the first team, I'd sabotage if I was a spy.

Deathsword
Toaster

Now if any of these two were spies, I'd just sabotage instead - much easier to let an experienced person hide away and play their day game with all the debate, assumptions and all given what has been said.

But...yeah, always going for sabotage here.

The vote fails:

The proposed team was:
2. Tiruin
3. Deathsword
10. Toaster

The final vote counts layout was:
In favour: 4
Nerjin: Up
Dariush: Up
notquitethere: Up
Tiruin: Up

Against: 6
ToonyMan: Down
Captain Ford: Down
Toaster: Down
Leafsnail: Down
Zombie Urist: Down
Deathsword: Down

It's obvious why Nerjin voted for his own pick. I voted for it because I wanted the game to get a move on so we could get concrete information from the first mission. Did Dariush or Tiruin or both have an incentive to put a spy on the team?

People Who Never Interacted With Him In Any Way

Only Nerjin and notquitethere ever addressed a question to Deathsword. Toonyman, Toaster and Tiruin talked briefly about Deathsword. This leaves Dariush, Captain Ford, Leafsnail, and Zombie Urist who never made an attempt to talk to or about Deathsword.

Talking Points

Can we read anything into Deathsword's comment about Tiruin and Tiruin's defence of Deathsword on his dream team?

People ignored Deathsword because he didn't interact much with the game. Still, one wonders why no attempt was made to send him a single question or raise his presence at all by the four players mentioned above.

Why would Deathsword downvote the team that he was on?

[Dariush]

but I don't want Leafsnail or Ford on that team and I'm sure neither of them want the other.

Er, what. I only understand why LS doesn't want Ford (or rather I don't, but at least I'm waiting for an explanation from him). Explain the other three points.

NQT, I don't want to quote that WoT, so I'll just point out stuff I don't like about it:
- Why do you assume both me and Tiruin knew that DS was a spy at the moment?
- The whole 'didn't talk at all with DS' bit is just horrifying in its idiocy. I mean like what. How is this even remotely a sign of scumminess?