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[Toaster]

Also, Dariush:  What is your read on Nerjin?

[notquitethere]

NQT:  If Nerjin is a spy, what do you make of him voting against four spy-containing teams- twice game-winning ones?  (The ones by Dariush, Ford, Leaf, and ZU, middle two being game winners)

I've explained why that might be earlier: essentially a ploy to look innocent in the non-game winners and hedging their bets for the potentially winning ones. I've thought over the opposite scenario that I'd previously dismissed out of hand: if Nerjin isn't a spy then both Leafsnail and ZU put forward all-town teams. Why would they do that when at least one of them has to be a spy if Nerjin is innocent? I'd trust your view on this more than Leafsnail's.

[Captain Ford]

Because they have no chance of winning unless they can convince us that we're wrong about at least one of them? And they can't do that if they act scummy as hell?

By the way, NQT your team definitely contained a spy. You realize that, right?

[notquitethere]

I just find it weird that both of them would put forward town teams. If Nerjin gets in for the next two missions I sincerely hope you're right.

And I realise that my team contained scum now and I'm glad it failed. In picking a team with the suspected Tiruin I guaranteed that my team would be downvoted and we'd have more time to work things out.

[Captain Ford]

That sounds like something you would do.

So tell me, how have your experiments been going?

[notquitethere]

Someone please doublecheck my counting, but here's the numbers of upvotes each possible scum team have given to selections that include at least one of their team members (including DS). Or in other words, for each possibly team, this is how many times spies have voted for spies:

T Z Ne  12
T L Ne  12
Z L Ne  11
No L Ne 11
No T Z  11
No T L  10
No Z L  8
T Z L    7


Bearing in mind that Ne-No-Z and Ne-No-T are invalid possibilities.

I beseech each of you to doublecheck my figures here, this is important. The pattern is striking, no?

[Nerjin]

Is Ne[rjin] and No[tquitthere]? Just wanna be sure.

[notquitethere]

Yes- there's no O in Nerjin. (It's all shorthand as I'm writing this on my phone).

[Nerjin]

No[tquitethere] is you. NO is you. NE is me. I was just double checking to make sure.

[notquitethere]

Here's all the times members of potential scum teams have downvoted a scum-containing team (inclusing DS's team, but not his votes):

Z L Ne 10
No L Ne 10
T L Ne 9
T Z Ne 9
No Z L 6
No T Z 5
No T L 5 
T Z L 4

[Tiruin]

PFP

Woke up. Checked the thread. Locked. Saw Toony with his victory speech. Then I began doubting Toaster.

Err.

MUAHAHAHA GAME OVER REBELS

To explain this, because I was about to become confirmed rebel I wanted to get some reactions to ID spies.  From what I've seen Nerjin seems pretty genuine town.

will post more when home

But then...this won't have any effect because either the game will end, or it will continue. Heading into confusion.

[...] or the scumteam is Tiruin, ZU AND Leafsnail.

No. You think I'd be fighting for the cleanliness of my name through all this and then be tagged like so?

The scumteam is you, ZU and Tiruin.  It was clear that no team containing any of the three of you could pass, so it would be better for ZU to concede the round and try and sow a little of bit of doubt by picking an all-rebel team.

Yeah, address him and not me when I tag you out as a spy.

Coward.


Also, goodness. I'm downvoting teams if they have either Dariush or Leafsnail on it then I see a bundle of logic thrown my way pairing me up with two other people.

I mean, really. Communication has gone down the drain in all its entirety.

[Tiruin]

Also, Toony please post the team, its getting an upvote anyway.

Either scum was on Toaster's team (ahaha sadists) and lay low to continue this game or that was a full rebel team. The latter is obvious.

Anyway, as it seems I've no hope of convincing everyone else - I believe sending Nerjin off with the confirmed four is the best way possible. Here, I'm judging it due to his outbreak on D1 (Still going along those lines of my 'controversial' opinion and all), exclude me, Dariush, Leafsnail and ZU.

[Leafsnail]

Yeah, address him and not me when I tag you out as a spy.

Coward.

Huh?

T Z Ne  12
T L Ne  12
Z L Ne  11
No L Ne 11
No T Z  11
No T L  10
No Z L  8
T Z L    7

Z L Ne 10
No L Ne 10
T L Ne 9
T Z Ne 9
No Z L 6
No T Z 5
No T L 5
T Z L 4

Let's make ratios then.  That way you'd be taking into account how many times people have been selected for missions - otherwise the teams involving people who have been on more missions will have skewed figures.

Ratio: Upvotes/downvotes
No T Z 2.2
No T L 2
T Z L 1.75
T Z Ne 1.33
T L Ne 1.33
No Z L 1.33
Z L Ne 1.1
No L Ne 1.1

I agree that the pattern is striking.  You had all this data, so why didn't you try to combine it to make meaningful statistics?  It's because you saw that the scumteam came out top, so like in M&M you selectively left it out.  I find that far more damning than the numbers themselves.

[Tiruin]

It's because you saw that the scumteam came out top, so like in M&M you selectively left it out.  I find that far more damning than the numbers themselves.

Nah, in M&M, he used cyclic logic which woefully became apparent in the endgame - tagging out people who seemingly had the highest chance of being scum because of looking vague.

Its different here in which (ok, I still can't get the numbers and the letters - how did the total per person reach 12?) he's poking at the reasoning behind people's votes and their posts. Meaning: he's not acting scummy with the information he's giving out - yeah, a bit too open-minded, but that's how his playstyle is, I'm seeing.

Also, I'd really poke at the way teams are presented via vote-pattern only. The basis that scum would out themselves via voting, purely, would be a mark against them. What concerns me is the latest two teams on Toaster's chart along with Nerjin's team.

Coming back to Nerjin's team - we can now eliminate the Toaster-is-scum variable (it should've landed on ToonyMan. Nerjin exclaimed reluctance, hesitation, anger then apology before and after that happened. I believe - and still believe - he's being sincere.) Now we were all on the idea that "why random roll" and "what are you doing with the switching".

Seems pretty much clear that Nerjin is a rebel here. Also, I'd like to suggest this [despite not being the team lead].

Toaster
ToonyMan
Dariush
Captain Ford
Nerjin

Dariush: Why were you insulting Nerjin earlier?

Spoiler: OOC@Leafsnail (click to show/hide)

What's a Shinji?

[Leafsnail]

I think it's per team, so 12 would be an average of 4 votes per person on that team.  I agree that the conclusions it draws aren't so strong, but it definitely strikes me as selective use of evidence on NQT's part, especially when it's the most obvious way to use the data he's gathered.

That team would be fine though.

Shinji is the protagonist from NGE.  I compared Nerjin to him back when he was moping around and claiming everything was hopeless.  Toony's avatar may also be related.