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[Nerjin]

If you're wondering why I'm suddenly settling on something concrete, it's primarily because I've decided that it's a fallacy to think the most town-looking players are probably scum. Also, finding a flaw in Leafsnail's argument destroys the Prince's Guard comparison for me. (I know it's not new, but it is for me)

Um... What? This isn't Prince's Guard. Why does it matter what happened there? And if you're avoiding doing something just to keep a nice comparison going than I suggest you rethink that.

PPE:

Okay... WHY THE HELL WOULD YOU INCLUDE ZU ON ANY TEAM!? He's basically confirmed scum. Through your own gambit I remind you. Why are you so intent on him NOT actually being scum?

I'd vote down on account of ZU. If we use NQT I'm still looking towards a down vote.

With your obsession of using ZU I'm begginning to think sending you may be a bad idea as well.

I'm cool with Dariush being on it though. Obviously myself too.

[Leafsnail]

Ford
Nerjin
Toaster
Dariush

(ie the team from last round)

Would pass if CF is now in favour, and wouldn't have to include NQT or ZU.

[Toaster]

Ford
Leafsnail
Toaster
Dariush

Would vote up.

Dariush
Ford
Nerjin
NQT or ZU <-- Purely by virtue of requiring one of these two, it loses the votes of Toaster, Toony, Leafsnail and likely Nerjin too.

Would vote down, and would slap you if you put ZU on it.

Ford
Nerjin
Toaster
Dariush

Would vote up.

[Captain Ford]

Yeah, you're right about that.

So what if the last team was put up again, and I upvoted this time? Would anybody downvote just because NQT or ZU was putting it up?

PPE: Nerjin, LS, Toaster

Nerjin:

(this is purely hypothetical)

EBWOP: Uhh...to be clear, the team isn't terrible if NQT is on it. I wouldn't be so happy if ZU was on it.

[Captain Ford]

So yeah, I guess we're all thinking the same thing.

[Leafsnail]

I'd vote up.  I said I'd downvote because I don't think it's likely NQT or ZU will submit an all rebel team, but if they do then sure.

[Captain Ford]

Um... What? This isn't Prince's Guard. Why does it matter what happened there? And if you're avoiding doing something just to keep a nice comparison going than I suggest you rethink that.

I'm totally not the first person to mention it:

Leaf's been giving me a nagging negative gut feeling for quite some time.  I can't nail anything specific to him, but I keep feeling like he's leading us around, and perhaps slightly buddying me.  It's hard to say- he's slippery.  I cite Prince's Guard if you're not sure what I mean.

Leafsnail won that game by presenting a plan based on concrete assumptions, and everyone agreed to it. However, he omitted a single piece of information that would have ruined the whole thing -- and he won by using that deception. Up until that point, I felt there was something wrong with his argument, but couldn't figure out what it was -- same feel as the end of Prince's Guard. Now that I see it -- and it's really bloody obvious -- the gut feeling is gone.

[Nerjin]

Um... What? This isn't Prince's Guard. Why does it matter what happened there? And if you're avoiding doing something just to keep a nice comparison going than I suggest you rethink that.

I'm totally not the first person to mention it:

Leaf's been giving me a nagging negative gut feeling for quite some time.  I can't nail anything specific to him, but I keep feeling like he's leading us around, and perhaps slightly buddying me.  It's hard to say- he's slippery.  I cite Prince's Guard if you're not sure what I mean.

Leafsnail won that game by presenting a plan based on concrete assumptions, and everyone agreed to it. However, he omitted a single piece of information that would have ruined the whole thing -- and he won by using that deception. Up until that point, I felt there was something wrong with his argument, but couldn't figure out what it was -- same feel as the end of Prince's Guard. Now that I see it -- and it's really bloody obvious -- the gut feeling is gone.

Oh I see. My bad. My point is this however:

Also, finding a flaw in Leafsnail's argument destroys the Prince's Guard comparison for me. (I know it's not new, but it is for me)

It seems like what you're saying is "I'm not looking for a flaw because it destroys a nice comparison.

[Leafsnail]

Prince's Guard was a bit abnormal because I was in a situation where it should have been completely impossible for me to win.  Therefore I had to propose a crazy plan and hope no-one noticed the flaw (or the fact that I was rushing people into acting when there was in fact no urgency at all).  I don't think any other game is likely to be comparable unless I'm in a "should be completely impossible for me to win" situation.

[Captain Ford]

Leafsnail:

I'd vote up.  I said I'd downvote because I don't think it's likely NQT or ZU will submit an all rebel team, but if they do then sure.

Well, if all three of NQT, ZU or Toaster were spies, the game would already be over and they'd know there was nothing we could do about it. If the spies want to keep up any pretense of maybe possibly not being spies, one of them will put it up (or something similar).

PPE: Actually, no, wait. ZU's in a position where he pretty much has to keep you out of the team if he wants anyone to believe he's a rebel. I think it's a pretty safe bet he's not.


Nerjin:

Also, finding a flaw in Leafsnail's argument destroys the Prince's Guard comparison for me. (I know it's not new, but it is for me)

It seems like what you're saying is "I'm not looking for a flaw because it destroys a nice comparison.

...umm...huh?

Uhh...the bit in parentheses might be ambiguous. I was referring to the flaw being new to me, not the comparison.

...on rereading, I think the whole paragraph is ambiguous, actually.


PPE: Leafsnail

Fair. I suppose that's probably not what Toaster was referring to, anyway, but it's what jumped out at me.


Also, I'd like to point out that if we do get to Toaster, we still get 3 days for Toaster to decide on a team. We just don't get to vote on it afterwards.

[notquitethere]

It seemed too insane at first but now I think I've got the scum team pegged:

Who're the only players that upvoted both failed missions? LS, ZU and Ford. This could be the scum team if we accept the following (not unreasonable) postulates:

• Scum agreed to fail the first mission where scum are suggested to throw off suspicion
• Scum agreed to always downvote missions suggested by scum-mates
• Scum agreed to always upvote scum-containing missions suggested by non-scum

Scum would then need only to follow a pattern of buddying town in different ways and suspecting one another (with all 3 offering their own 'objective' analysis), coasting on to victory. 

(I'm going to continue with my analysis and see if there are any better theories but after four or so hours that's the most compelling idea I've got.)

[Captain Ford]

*facepalm*

[ToonyMan]

...also...Toony, you voted up for my team with NQT in it. I'm curious why you settled on him for third spy.

I wanted Toaster instead of NQT, so you instigated that first, but at the time I was willing because I was still theorizing "Leafsnail is a spy" possibilities (which is very unlikely at this point) until you managed to catch ZU sneak-voting.  Tiruin was also caught sneak-voting for this mission so I am completely baffled people could think ZU and Tiruin are town at this point.  NQT comes as the last one possibly left behavior-wise and also fits with aaaall of the evidence I complied in my statistic posts too (I'd also feel happy in calling him a spy in my very first post).  Of course, you could apply 60% of why NQT is a spy to me as well, but I know I'm a rebel.

*facepalm*

Yep.

[Captain Ford]

NQT: Postulate 3 is wrong.

Why would scum agree to a set of rules that might be hard to adhere to while trying to pretend to be rebels?

Not to mention adhering to a pattern that could easily be discovered by anyone using vote analysis.

[notquitethere]

Well it wasn't that easily discoverable, and you and ZU have acted pretty weird with your votes and LS has been on both failing teams. The meta postulate is this:

0. Scum must be following a prearranged plan to ensure victory.

If this is true, then no matter how convoluted, their plan must be evident in the voting patterns.