Topic: Viva la Revolucion! Game Over, man, Game over! (Read 133900 times)

Nerjin · « **Reply #360 on:** February 26, 2013, 11:11:52 pm »

Just a few preliminary reads. I'm too tired to actually read the entire thread but tomorrow... Tomorrow I shall try my damnedest.

NQT: Starts off blatantly ignoring a question I asked him. Tells me to just go ahead with the first team I proposed without any sort of follow-up on the issue. Just states “Go for it. We need the information.” He has improved since but I’m still leaning towards a no.

Leafsnail: On both of the failed teams. Should be excluded simply due to that. He may NOT be a spy but better safe than sorry.

I propose [as it were] this team.

ToonyMan: That god *donut* piece of *spinach* WIFOM with the role-name thing still *pineapple*s me to no end. But other than that he has seemed relatively town with an excellent scum-hunting capability.

Nerjin: I am me and I know I am town however as I don’t think it’d be wise to pick me [as everyone would downvote] we shall move on.

Captain Ford: You put a lot of effort into finding scum and I approve of that. While you seem WAY to easily swayed through emotional appeal I think you’re logical enough to trust.

Zombie Urist: This is the one I’m LEAST pushing. Just in the time he’s been with us I feel he’s acted mostly trustworthy.

Toaster · « **Reply #361 on:** February 26, 2013, 11:19:49 pm »

Nerjin:

Quote from: Nerjin on February 26, 2013, 11:11:52 pm

Zombie Urist: This is the one I’m LEAST pushing. Just in the time he’s been with us I feel he’s acted mostly trustworthy.

How so?

Captain Ford · « **Reply #362 on:** February 26, 2013, 11:32:53 pm »

Quote from: ToonyMan on February 26, 2013, 10:57:53 pm

Quote from: Captain Ford on February 26, 2013, 10:48:41 pm
Quote from: ToonyMan on February 26, 2013, 10:40:22 pm
I definitely don't want both, since one is likely a spy (I can't say I could pick though, leaning NQT right now).
Not as true as you might think.
Numerically speaking, they're significantly less likely to be spies than anyone else.
And a combination-based analysis indicates that picking all three of you is no worse than any other choice. I'm tempted to do it, but I'd need all three of you to vote for it and one more besides.
If Leafsnail is a rebel then what he says here means there's either 1 spy or 0 spies within our group of three. So there is a chance all three of us are rebels which is nice, but it's still just a gamble, especially the trusting LS thing.

If Leafsnail is a spy then it's a complete wash really, two of the remaining eight could be spies, so just finding people who aren't being scummy would be the best option. And if we're going to assume LS is a spy we can go in the direction of keeping people on his side away (Dariush and ZU, like I said here).

Bleh. Guess I'll slam down the math.

There's originally 84 combinations:

Spoiler: All 84 combinations (click to show/hide)

Incorporating the results of the first two missions, I've narrowed it down to 37 combinations. I've also taken out all combinations where I'm not a rebel.

Those 37 combinations are:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Of those 37, only 10 can result in mission success if I pick Nerjin, NQT and ToonyMan:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

If I pick, for example, ToonyMan, NQT and Dariush, there are 9 combinations:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

If I went with ToonyMan, zombie urist and Dariush, there are 6 combinations:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

My point is, while you've been conceptually grouped together in every other analysis, the numbers don't actually support that.

(I'd spoiler this whole thing, but bbcode won't do nested spoilers. Sorry)

Second part of your post -- yeah, that's effectively what I've been doing. I've got vague suspicions on ZU and Dariush. Since Dariush is throwing suspicion on Tiruin now, it would make sense if both LS and he were spies and Tiruin a rebel. Then again, Tiruin and ZU could be spies, and well, I'm just not ready to wander into that set of landmines.

Based on his posts, I'm most inclined to trust Toaster.

Quote from: Toaster on February 26, 2013, 11:09:12 pm

Nerjin:
Quote from: Nerjin on February 26, 2013, 10:43:56 pm
Everything I've said or done in this game has gotten a bunch of people up onto my case. ESPECIALLY you! Sure I'm acting like a 3 year old about this but I don't really care too much. I don't see any-way for us to win. MAYBE if someone hadn't flipped off the *pineapple* handle when I didn't role-claim because it's a *coconut* null-tell I wouldn't have stopped seeing the use in convincing everyone I'm town and that my reads have any matter.

But that's not the way the world works. I know a lost cause when I see one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_emotion

You think so?

Consider this: If I put you on the team in place of Nerjin. Would you vote for it?

Nerjin, would you vote for it?

Captain Ford · « **Reply #363 on:** February 26, 2013, 11:38:05 pm »

NQT: Do you have any advice on building the team?

Captain Ford · « **Reply #364 on:** February 26, 2013, 11:58:49 pm »

Quote from: Toaster on February 26, 2013, 11:09:12 pm

Ford:
Quote from: Captain Ford on February 26, 2013, 10:34:23 pm
That's totally not true. Stuff as petty as this can and has ended relationships and started feuds. People have killed over far less.

I agree that nobody should. But that doesn't mean nobody does.

I'm talking about Bay12 Mafia subforum here.

So nobody ever carries a rivalry over from a previous game? Ever?

Pretty sure that's not true.

notquitethere · « **Reply #365 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:07:51 am »

Sure. I didn't want to push my specific advice too hard in case I got a 'Well if that's what NQT wants to do, let's do the exact opposite!' kind of response, but since you asked, here goes:

My Confirmed Rebels:
NQT - I know what my role PM said.
Ford - The game is in the bag for the spies, they just have to kick back and upvote any team with one of them in. They certainly have no need to put in the tremendous effort that you've put into scum hunting and solid analysis.

Everyone else I'm wavering on. I thought Toaster was legit near the beginning of the game and now I'm not quite as sure. I thought Nerjin was a spy at the beginning and now I think he could just be frustrated rebel. LS is making the right noises but we'd be insane to put him forward a third time when the previous two teams failed. ZU I'm reading as sketchy as hell. Tiruin actually has a slight bonus in his favour in that he down-voted a scummy team before. Toonyman seems reasonable, but I'm not 100% convinced. Dariush I just don't know.

An obvious scum tactic would be to try to only put one spy per team, so it wouldn't be surprising if there's a spy among the people that haven't played yet. As such, I'd advise against sending both Nerjin and Toonyman.

I would upvote the following unless someone gives me a compelling reason why it's a bad idea:

Ford
NQT
Toaster
Toonyman

I'd be the first to admit that I haven't given this game nearly as much attention as I'd have liked, so I'd trust your reads a lot more than mine right now.

Captain Ford · « **Reply #366 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:11:41 am »

Alrighty, I need to go to bed now.

I'd rather not use up the extension right now. Worst case scenario, the team fails and we have more time to discuss. I would trust NQT or ToonyMan to arrange the team in my stead.

Plus, I really want to see how Leafsnail's turn goes.

With Nerjin and NQT back in the game, I think this game has a chance again.

So, here goes nothing...

Captain Ford
ToonyMan
notquitethere
Nerjin

I'm not going to exclude a rebel just because he's unlikely to win the vote. Picking someone who I'm not certain about is only going to result in losing.

Captain Ford · « **Reply #367 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:15:21 am »

EBWOP: I saw your reply, NQT. I considered doing the team with Toaster in it, and didn't because I'm more certain of Nerjin.

If the vote fails, then it fails. I'd rather see the game move forward while we continue the discussion than stall on me.

zombie urist · « **Reply #368 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:17:03 am »

There's no way I'm voting up a team with both Nerjin and NQT.

Captain Ford · « **Reply #369 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:18:22 am »

Quote from: notquitethere on February 27, 2013, 12:07:51 am

An obvious scum tactic would be to try to only put one spy per team, so it wouldn't be surprising if there's a spy among the people that haven't played yet. As such, I'd advise against sending both Nerjin and Toonyman.

Missed this. Now addressing it specifically.

I've done an analysis using this assumption. The numbers bear out the same way. Taking the three of you still isn't worse. The only thing that changes is that Tiruin and Dariush suddenly become much better picks.

Captain Ford · « **Reply #370 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:21:18 am »

EBWOP: Ugh. I need to get some sleep.

But basically what I'm saying is that your assumption only holds true if both organizers were spies, which is pretty unlikely. Even so, either could reasonably have included another spy. Remember that spies still have to justify their choices.

Captain Ford · « **Reply #371 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:24:10 am »

Quote from: zombie urist on February 27, 2013, 12:17:03 am

There's no way I'm voting up a team with both Nerjin and NQT.

Why not?

It's no worse than taking both you and Dariush. Hell, it's better.

zombie urist · « **Reply #372 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:26:48 am »

Its "better" if you totally ignore reads.

Toaster · « **Reply #373 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:31:00 am »

I'm going to sleep on it, but I highly doubt I'll upvote that team. I'll say why when I actually send in a vote.

Tiruin · « **Reply #374 on:** February 27, 2013, 12:57:05 am »

Quote from: Captain Ford on February 27, 2013, 12:11:41 am

Captain Ford
ToonyMan
notquitethere
Nerjin

So upvoting this.

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Author Topic: Viva la Revolucion! Game Over, man, Game over! (Read 133900 times)

Nerjin

Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 3, Day 1 - Planning Mode

Toaster

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Captain Ford

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Captain Ford

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Captain Ford

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notquitethere

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Captain Ford

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Captain Ford

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zombie urist

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Captain Ford

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Captain Ford

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Captain Ford

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zombie urist

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Toaster

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Tiruin

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