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[RustedAxe]

What determines how many caravans arrive?  

I have a clue; I've been steadily getting more caravans each time with more and more trade exchanged until one time I forgot to open my bridge-gate, which led to less trade.  The year afterward brought a significant decrease in caravans.

Anyone else have something to chime in?

[Skanky]

Someone reported giving away a large amount of stuff to caravans throughout their game and ended up with 8 caravans at one point.

[Greiger]

Though this is speculation I would think the number of wagons received would be partially dependent on how much profit they made the previous year.  Might have to do with how friendly they are with you too.  

I don't think anybody but Toady or ThreeToe knows for sure.

[Forumsdwarf]

Can human wagons haul gold bars?  I'm in my first year and my fortress is loaded to the crenelations with gold bars, but so far they've been worthless to me.  (I know, mint coins, but it's my first year and we've got food and liquor piled to the roof, so I think I got my priorities straight.)

Still curious how much weight the humans can carry.  I'll sell everything not in direct communication with pressurized water for the right price -- if the buyers can haul it off.

[Skanky]

Make them into goblets and they will be worth quite a bit. As bars, not so much. Humans can sell gold bars to you, so I presume they will buy them as well.

[Forumsdwarf]

Goblets, good advice.  Another question: I've also got lots of gems on this map (and not a scrap of iron!)
If I wanted to make gem-encrusted goblets would I cut the gems first?

[Manicmonkey]

Indeed you would. If you have glass making abilities, you can can make a lot of raw green glass, and cut that. It counts as a gem, not as valuable but gives gemcutters/setters practice. A higher level of gemcutting, from what ive seen, increases the value of gems and increases the probability of getting a large gem. Good gem setting ability means a decorated item is worth more (when inset with gems, studding with metal/bone etc uses the respective skills)

[veryinky]

Toady posted the formula in the channel once, merchants have a 10 year memory, the range of number of wagons/mules increases if they have a profit the previous year. 3-4 wagons this year + profit = 4-5 wagons next year. 3-4 wagons this year + caravan killed = 2-3 wagons next year.