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[penguinofhonor]

Increase or decrease even more?

[alway]

Well, yeah... Because if it is going to miss the earth, the probability quickly approaches 1 in infinity as you improve your orbital calculation.

[misko27]

Hmm. I'm putting money on 2016, when Obama will decide suddenly to not give up power and release his evil plan, to use all the money from rich people to activate the chips he's been implanting in poor people, opening a portal to hell.

[Sirus]

Damn, you should work for FOX

[RedKing]

Damn, you should work for FOX

How do you know he doesn't??



EDIT: Also worth noting that we had a serious near-miss just a few days ago. An asteroid (2012 XE54) that was only picked up two days prior to closest approach and came within 226,000 km (about 60% the orbital distance of the Moon).

Of course, the reason we didn't see it is because it was only 120 feet across. A rock that small would have made a hell of a light show, but probably either burned up in atmosphere, or at worst created a localized Tunguska-style event. Bad if it directly hits a city, but the odds are that it would have hit a very lightly-inhabited or uninhabited area. After all, 3/4 of the Earth's surface is uninhabited water.

[Svarte Troner]

I always knew those Poles were a shifty bunch, we oughta keep our eyes on them.

And that's what happens when you don't read threads children.

[10ebbor10]

I'm thinking about 29XX. There was a promising planetoid coming up for a close meeting, aproximattely 5% impact chance, but I think it's at least several miles diameter.

[Loud Whispers]

Plus, don't forget that comet thing passing Earth very close in 2038(?).

First I've heard of it. But if it's something we can already track, then we have plenty of time to intercept and deal with it.

Well if it was heading for Earth I suppose we'd be screwed. Thing is, in all likelihood it's not getting anywhere near Earth. As for the people saying its gravity will tear us apart, it's smaller than the moon and will be further away.
Sorry guys, the world's not ending yet.

[LoSboccacc]

here is a site of interest:

http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm

collects all mythological and not reasons for the end of the world.

the next date (which is not, say the end is night or something that imprecise) is 9/11/2040:
http://www.exitmundi.nl/Aligment.htm for the next planetary alignment.

[10ebbor10]

LInk

This one is relevant too. It's all asteroids that might collide within 100 years. It doesn't include 1950A, which might collide around the 2880. With a 1.1 km diameter, it would obliterate civilization as we know it.

[da_nang]

Plus, don't forget that comet thing passing Earth very close in 2038(?).

First I've heard of it. But if it's something we can already track, then we have plenty of time to intercept and deal with it.

Well if it was heading for Earth I suppose we'd be screwed. Thing is, in all likelihood it's not getting anywhere near Earth. As for the people saying its gravity will tear us apart, it's smaller than the moon and will be further away.
Sorry guys, the world's not ending yet.

I bet someone's going to try and correlate it with Y2.038K. Anything too stupid to be spoken will be spoken.

[i2amroy]

I'm currently taking bets on how many cultists will be drinking the special flavoraid on the 21st.  I'm guessing we'll hit around 75.

The funny thing is that none of them will be descended from the Maya (or still worship versions of the aztec gods, yes there are still villages in that area that do), as they are knowledgeable enough to know that the calendar is circular, and would just roll over one digit (sort of how we moved from 1999 to 2000). So for the people who invented the calendar really all it would be would be the biggest party/celebration of millennia.

I'm still betting we get a fair amount of stupid people who think they know what is happening that do though.

[Sir Finkus]

I'm currently taking bets on how many cultists will be drinking the special flavoraid on the 21st.  I'm guessing we'll hit around 75.

The funny thing is that none of them will be descended from the Maya (or still worship versions of the aztec gods, yes there are still villages in that area that do), as they are knowledgeable enough to know that the calendar is circular, and would just roll over one digit (sort of how we moved from 1999 to 2000). So for the people who invented the calendar really all it would be would be the biggest party/celebration of millennia.

I'm still betting we get a fair amount of stupid people who think they know what is happening that do though.

You don't have to be Mayan to realize any of that.  All it takes is about 2 minutes of research, or an ounce of common sense.  Don't forget these are the same dumbasses that though the world was ending on January 1st, 2000.