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[miauw62]

Hello Bay12, today i have a very important question for you.


We all know that the world will end on 21 december 2012, but what if the minute chance that it does not is true? What if the poles don't shift and the earth explodes and crusts move and volcanos and shit happens and then zombies?


When will the world end after that?

[penguinofhonor]

Was it May of this year that it was supposed to end? Or May of last year? There was that crazy religious dude and stuff.

There'll be another date within a year or so. I don't think anything will get as much attention as 2012 for a long time.

[Flying Dice]

The poles are already in the process of shifting, it's just not the catastrophic civilization-crushing cataclysm certain craven cretins claim could come.

[Sirus]

It was supposed to end in May first, and then October (both predictions made by Harold Camping of my state).

But yes, there will likely be another prediction before long, though I doubt anything will gain as much attention as the Mayan thing.

[penguinofhonor]

October didn't count since everybody stopped paying attention to him after May.

This one is really the biggest one since Y2K. I don't think it's quite as big as that was, though. Maybe the next big one will be in 2022? You can line up a lot of twos there.

[RedKing]

Welp, according to the Great and Powerful Wiki, sometime between 2018 and 2028:

Beshore bases his prediction on Hal Lindsey's failed 1988 prediction that Jesus would return within one biblical generation of the founding of Israel in 1948. Lindsey stated a biblical generation was 40 years. Beshore argues that Lindsey's prediction was correct, but that his definition of a biblical generation was incorrect, which is actually 70-80 years, placing the Second Coming of Jesus between 2018 and 2028.

Then there's these nutjobs:

c. 500,000,000 (CE)  James Kasting    The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will drop, making Earth uninhabitable.

c. 5,000,000,000    Various scientists    The end of our Sun's current phase of development, after which it will swell into a red giant, either swallowing the Earth or at least completely scorching it. It is widely accepted by the scientific community that the earth will be destroyed around this time. However, as the Sun grows gradually hotter (over millions of years), the Earth may become too hot for life in only a billion years' time.

10¹⁰⁰ years. Various scientists The heat death of the universe is a suggested ultimate fate of the universe, in which the universe has diminished to a state of no thermodynamic free energy and therefore can no longer sustain motion or life.

[miauw62]

That last one doesn't count.
It's the end of the universe, not of the world.

[alway]

The poles are already in the process of shifting, it's just not the catastrophic civilization-crushing cataclysm certain craven cretins claim could come.

Nova episode about it, for the curious: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJUTUFAWfEY

There are a couple EoTW predictions schedules for the next decade; most look minor at best. Some psychics and other woo-mongers by the looks of it; along the lines of Camping. The reason the current date was so widely popular was twofold:
1. numbers; 12/21/12 is an appealing number, just as 11/11/11 or similar are. If some magic cataclysm is going to occur, of course it would occur on a funny date; or so goes the reasoning.
2. argument from antiquity; nevermind the fact that the mayan connection is bullshit in so many ways it makes 9/11 truthers look sane in comparison, that it was associated with an ancient civilization causes it to have undue weight in many peoples' minds. Particularly since new-agey beliefs and woo-woo often include some sort of addendum of 'ancient exotic secrets' or variations on the "Magical Negro" and similar instances of romantic racism.

[Haspen]

Plus, don't forget that comet thing passing Earth very close in 2038(?).

[Sirus]

Plus, don't forget that comet thing passing Earth very close in 2038(?).

First I've heard of it. But if it's something we can already track, then we have plenty of time to intercept and deal with it.

[Sir Finkus]

I'm currently taking bets on how many cultists will be drinking the special flavoraid on the 21st.  I'm guessing we'll hit around 75.

[Sirus]

Worldwide? I'd tack at least two zeroes on the end of that number.

[alway]

That was 99942-Apophis.
It was initially rated to have a chance on the order of 1 in 37 of hitting earth; that was later revised downward as its trajectory became more well measured. Now it's 1 in 250,000; or effectively not even noteworthy.


As for 21st deaths, I'd speculate it will probably be on the order of 100-200.

[ChairmanPoo]

My bet is that the next popular doom claim will be for 2021. Because the maya were dyslexic, or something.

[Sirus]

That was 99942-Apophis.
It was initially rated to have a chance on the order of 1 in 37 of hitting earth; that was later revised downward as its trajectory became more well measured. Now it's 1 in 250,000; or effectively not even noteworthy.

As it gets closer and measurements become more precise, I suspect the odds will increase even more (assuming anyone is still bothering to track the thing).