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[Bookthras]

Oh ho ho. Everyone thinks their a statistician

This is not a conversation I'm interested in having. Their is no weigh your dragging me intuit. The arguments are there and people can formulate their own opinions. But for the record: you are wrong.


By my count, we haven't heard yet from Ottofar, Dariush and Tiruin: Folks, do not be distracted by kookish statistics bullshit into thinking RVS is over; it is not. Please ask three questions, cast a vote, and speculate on how you'd choose your target if you were any two of the possible roles with an abduction power.

[Tiruin]

Post coming in a while, these things start in a different time than I am able.

Meaning: Timezones 

[Dariush]

Kook reporting in.

Holy shit, that's a lot of posts.

Dariush who would be the worst [for town] person to be scum in your opinion?

Generally, the best player around. Specifically Toaster, because he's the only player on the board whose actions never forced me to pull my own hair out while screaming 'WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING DUMBASS'.

Dariush: As town, which of the following would you consider the highest priority lynch target: an exterminator, an organ harvester, or a dopp?

Dunno about OH, but an exty is by default a better idea to lynch than a dopp, because it immediatly takes out an anti-town kill.

Folks, do not be distracted by kookish statistics bullshit into thinking RVS is over; it is not. Please ask three questions, cast a vote, and speculate on how you'd choose your target if you were any two of the possible roles with an abduction power.

Do you think that RVS questions serve some other purpose other than to promote activity, Book?

Nerjin, have you read any Paranormals? Have you played any games with a miller role? Was your post #54 an RVS one or a shameless attempt to tunnel Hapah based on a nulltell?

[webadict]

However, you fail to take in to account that the event you're tying this to has NO calculable probability.

This isn't true. This is a perfectly calculable probability.

Spoiler: MATHS (click to show/hide)

In a Mephansteras game, x fraction of the players are Kooks, y fraction are scum, and none are both scum and Kooks. Therefore, 1 - x - y fraction of the players are town.

A Kook will claim Kook with probability p, scum will claim Kook with probability q, and town will claim Kook with probability r. Given that a player has claimed Kook, what is the probability that they are scum?

P(X is scum | X claimed Kook) = (P(X is scum) * P(X claimed Kook | X is scum)) / (P(X is town) * P(X claimed Kook | X is town) + P(X is Kook) * P(X claimed Kook | X is Kook) + P(X is scum) * P(X claimed Kook | X is scum))
      = qy / (px + qy + (1 - x - y)r)

Supply whatever values between 0 and 1 you find appropriate for p, q, r, x, and y, and compute. Or, even better, determine them based on previous games.

This probability is even calculable if whether there's a Kook in the game or not is a probability of its own, I just don't want to formulate it because I'm lazy. Why, there's probabilities for everything. It's probabilities all the way down!

tl;dr PROBABILIPWNED

Okay, now what's p and q? Because x and y is pretty easy, given old data, but without p and q, you can't calculate it.

Oh ho ho. Everyone thinks their a statistician

This is not a conversation I'm interested in having. Their is no weigh your dragging me intuit. The arguments are there and people can formulate their own opinions. But for the record: you are wrong.


By my count, we haven't heard yet from Ottofar, Dariush and Tiruin: Folks, do not be distracted by kookish statistics bullshit into thinking RVS is over; it is not. Please ask three questions, cast a vote, and speculate on how you'd choose your target if you were any two of the possible roles with an abduction power.

Okay, here's a good example: How many Aliens are there? Can you take a guess? Because, using old data, I believe there are 2ish. How right do you think I am? Oh, is that not the same? Can I not infer that there are at least one Aliens in the game? Because I think I can.

Old data is relevant to current unknowns. If you have any relevant data that backs up your theory, go ahead and show it. But, my data shows that Kookclaiming is a towntell.

I'm so far ahead of how you view this game. Hapah is at least 4 times more likely to be Town, if not more, and that's based SOLELY on his Kookclaim. That makes it a Towntell. Based further on what I know about his playstyle, I give him about 2 times more likely to be Town based on that. So, I rate him to be about... 96%+ chance to be Town. Hence, he's Town.

This is simple.

You guys put so much into your evaluations on people but so little into anyone else's. It makes for really poor scumhunting. I'm saying that you should assume Hapah is more likely to be Town than anyone else. I do not say that you have to assume he is Town, but even if you did, you could just change your mind. I believe he is Town. Until he does something to change that, I will continue to assume he's Town. And yes, I do play the odds. Because I know them so well.

Check the coin for two heads, Bookthras. Because that's the better bet.

[Hapah]

Oh god, I was hoping this Kook conversation wouldn't happen. Just use the information how you see fit and carry on.

[Captain Ford]

Note to self: Subtlety does not work well in games of forum mafia.

On the other hand, I kind of hope you're a town war vet, since the dopples are likely to target a confirmed townie.

Captain Ford: What.  How the fuck is Hapah a confirmed townie?

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

I would, however, view anyone pushing for his lynch with an ounce of suspicion, considering he's confirmed town if he's telling the truth.

...On the night survival: No.  It doesn't work like that.  At all.  Heck, if it did work like that, it certainly doesn't now, seeing how you've basically told the mafia not to kill Hapah so that you'll pay more attention to Hapah.

On the "confirmed town" thing: Again, how the fuck is Hapah confirmed town?  And doesn't the fact that you're attaching a conditional to his confirmed towniness kind of defeat the point of calling him confirmed town?

I said it before, but I'll say it again. I went "derp", and thought that it was possible for his status to be confirmed by an inspection.

I'm extremely embarassed about it, but it's not like I can just pretend it didn't happen.

PPE: And...on a second reread, I also misused the term 'confirmed townie'. I chalk the whole train wreck up to the sugar crash after eating a dozen cookies at work yesterday.

Kook reporting in.

So we have a second kook.

...

...I have nothing more to say about that at this time.

[webadict]

Oh god, I was hoping this Kook conversation wouldn't happen. Just use the information how you see fit and carry on.

I am. You and Dariush are Town. Boom. Just used it.

[Captain Ford]

Nerjin:

Shakerag Same question.

Why didn't you make your own question?

Captain Ford:
How important do you think original questions are in RVS?

Deathsword: I've seen that questioning pattern before. In fact, I've used it myself. As scum. It sounds an awful lot like, "he's scummy. Isn't he? Back me up, bro." Give me an argument for why this is or isn't an example of buddying or a scumtell.

Bookthras and webadict: For what it's worth, I think you're both right. Yes, a kook is more likely to be town. And yes, since we still can't be 100% sure, we shouldn't base our read on that claim. Hapah's reactions to Nerjin's questions gives me a town read on him, which has nothing to do with his claim.

You guys put so much into your evaluations on people but so little into anyone else's. It makes for really poor scumhunting.

webadict: What did you mean by this?

[Toaster]

Ford:

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

This is complete bullshit.  Please explain to me how it makes any sense at all that his survival of the night would have any bearing whatsoever on his alignment?

Yes, it is. It has no bearing on his alignment. I was responding to Nerjin saying "My vote stands" by saying "that's stupid. Wait until we have more information".

What information would that be?

Note to self: Subtlety does not work well in games of forum mafia.

If you think that, you're using subtlety wrong.

Kook reporting in.

So we have a second kook.

...

...I have nothing more to say about that at this time.

Then why comment on it at all?

Nerjin:

Shakerag Same question.

Why didn't you make your own question?

Captain Ford:
How important do you think original questions are in RVS?

Deathsword: I've seen that questioning pattern before. In fact, I've used it myself. As scum. It sounds an awful lot like, "he's scummy. Isn't he? Back me up, bro." Give me an argument for why this is or isn't an example of buddying or a scumtell.

I don't understand this attack at all.  Are you putting your meta on someone else?  I don't make the connection between your claim on his argument and his actual actions.

Except for the bit where you then do what you call scummy right back at him, since you're practically asking him to make a case against himself.

[Mephansteras]

The Whiteboard
Bookthras: Dariush
Captain Ford: Pandarsenic
Dariush: Jack A T
Deathsword: Captain Ford
Hapah: Nerjin
Nerjin: Deathsword, webadict
Ottofar: Toaster
Tiruin: Bookthras
Toaster: Hapah


Day ends ~10am Pacific Wednesday

[Shakerag]

Shakerag Same question.

Boring as it may seem, I think I'd go with Intelligence Sci as well.  Although it might be fun to give Military Sci a whirl.  One-shot vig and all.


...

Oh god, I am voting the next person to continue the Kook circlejerk in this game on grounds of "getting them killed so they shut up" alone.  Take it to a discussion thread. 

Bookthras:  Ask webadict a question that has nothing to do with Kooks or statistics.
webadict:  Ask Bookthras a question that has nothing to do with Kooks or statistics.
Jack A T:  What's the scummiest thing that's been said so far?

[Dariush]

So we have a second kook.

...

...I have nothing more to say about that at this time.

Thank you, Captain Obvious. Did your remark serve any purpose whatsoever?

Bookthras:  Ask webadict a question that has nothing to do with Kooks or statistics.
webadict:  Ask Bookthras a question that has nothing to do with Kooks or statistics.
Jack A T:  What's the scummiest thing that's been said so far?

More like

Bookthras: Ask RVS questions for me.
webadict: Ask RVS questions for me.
Jack A T: Scumhunt for me.

Why so British lazy, Shakerag?

[Ottofar]

However, you fail to take in to account that the event you're tying this to has NO calculable probability.

This isn't true. This is a perfectly calculable probability.

Spoiler: MATHS (click to show/hide)

In a Mephansteras game, x fraction of the players are Kooks, y fraction are scum, and none are both scum and Kooks. Therefore, 1 - x - y fraction of the players are town.

A Kook will claim Kook with probability p, scum will claim Kook with probability q, and town will claim Kook with probability r. Given that a player has claimed Kook, what is the probability that they are scum?

P(X is scum | X claimed Kook) = (P(X is scum) * P(X claimed Kook | X is scum)) / (P(X is town) * P(X claimed Kook | X is town) + P(X is Kook) * P(X claimed Kook | X is Kook) + P(X is scum) * P(X claimed Kook | X is scum))
      = qy / (px + qy + (1 - x - y)r)

Supply whatever values between 0 and 1 you find appropriate for p, q, r, x, and y, and compute. Or, even better, determine them based on previous games.

This probability is even calculable if whether there's a Kook in the game or not is a probability of its own, I just don't want to formulate it because I'm lazy. Why, there's probabilities for everything. It's probabilities all the way down!

tl;dr PROBABILIPWNED

[Ottofar]

No, wait, wrong window. Sorry.

Re: Kooks: I think Hapah's pretty likely to be town, Dariush less so, since the conversation had gone on for a while before his claim. Anyways, the whole kook-issue is a large, steamy pile of WIFOM, so wasting time on that should probably stop. If anyone thinks it's a town tell, let them regard it as such, and If anyone else thinks it's not, let them.

Toaster

Ottofar:  Welcome back from your prolonged absence.  What have you learned about Mafia in your time away?

Thank you. I think I've grown as a person more than as a mafia-player, but probably to rely on my own reads and hold on to them for as long as I think I'm right, but also accept that I might be wrong.

Ford

Ottofar: Random.org rolled your number three times in a row. Why does it hate you so much?

Because the random number god must be against me sometimes?

Book

Ottofar:  do you plan to be active this game, or to lurk uselessly for days on end?

I'll try my best to stay active throughout the game.

By my count, we haven't heard yet from Ottofar, Dariush and Tiruin: Folks, do not be distracted by kookish statistics bullshit into thinking RVS is over; it is not. Please ask three questions, cast a vote, and speculate on how you'd choose your target if you were any two of the possible roles with an abduction power.

As any of the abductors, I'd just simply pick up the people who are trying to lynch me. As a xeno, though I wouldn't pick up anyone I thought was a member of any of the species I already had, and as a mind stealer I'd just try and steal a member of the faction I at the moment of abduction think is going to win.

Nerjin, have you played a paranormal before? Scratch that, have you played any open setup with millers before? And you are aware, that there have been multiple kook claims within a single game before?

Also, did you take into account that claiming a kook as town is pretty much the standard, but claiming kook as scum is extremely ballsy? While it would statistically be a good move for a single dopp to do this, it does take balls to be in the spotlight as scum, and slightest mistakes might earn you an evening in the gallows.

Book, Webadict, what exactly did you hope to achieve by derailing this to a kook statistics discussion? It hasn't taken anyone a step closer to finding the scum.

[Captain Ford]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Ford:

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

This is complete bullshit.  Please explain to me how it makes any sense at all that his survival of the night would have any bearing whatsoever on his alignment?

Yes, it is. It has no bearing on his alignment. I was responding to Nerjin saying "My vote stands" by saying "that's stupid. Wait until we have more information".

What information would that be?

Anything besides, 'Hapah claimed he's a Kook'.
Looking back, that may have been better phrased as, "that's a stupid reason to vote someone. Come up with something better."

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Note to self: Subtlety does not work well in games of forum mafia.

If you think that, you're using subtlety wrong.

I see the subtle sarcasm of that statement evaded you.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Kook reporting in.

So we have a second kook.

...

...I have nothing more to say about that at this time.

Then why comment on it at all?

So we have a second kook.

...

...I have nothing more to say about that at this time.

Thank you, Captain Obvious. Did your remark serve any purpose whatsoever?

I almost missed it, and wanted to make sure others caught it.

Also, I wanted to make a point that I was letting the Kook discussion drop.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Nerjin:

Shakerag Same question.

Why didn't you make your own question?

Captain Ford:
How important do you think original questions are in RVS?

Deathsword: I've seen that questioning pattern before. In fact, I've used it myself. As scum. It sounds an awful lot like, "he's scummy. Isn't he? Back me up, bro." Give me an argument for why this is or isn't an example of buddying or a scumtell.

I don't understand this attack at all.  Are you putting your meta on someone else?  I don't make the connection between your claim on his argument and his actual actions.

Except for the bit where you then do what you call scummy right back at him, since you're practically asking him to make a case against himself.

1. It's more like an RVS question than an attack. I just want to see more activity from Deathsword, since he's only posted once so far.
2. It's not the same thing. He criticized Nerjin, and then turned to me to back him up. I just asked him to explain his actions (no third party involved). Explain to me how that's the same thing?