Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Captain Ford]

EBWOP: Make that 4 new posts.

[Nerjin]

I would, however, view anyone pushing for his lynch with an ounce of suspicion, considering he's confirmed town if he's telling the truth.

I'm a nice guy. I want you to think about what you just said.

...

Done thinking?

...

Let me explain what I mean here. By your logic in the last sentence there basically everyone who role-claims and is doubted falls under the same category. Therefore those who accuse those who claim are under suspicion just cause someone MIGHT be telling the truth. Care to explain how it makes sense to wait for tomorrow Captain Ford? It seems to me that we get more info from a lynch today.

[Nerjin]

It seems safer to me to just off you today then just in case. Here's what you're probably trying.
-snip-

I disagree, because we'll have more information overall if we lynch somebody else. He's an easy lynch right now, and if he does flip dopple, we'll have less to go on for picking tomorrow's targets.

The most dangerous scenario is that he's a doppelganger war vet, and he's encouraging us to night action him. But I think that's a long shot. He could just as easily be a town war vet, and he's trying to save town while encouraging the dopples to night-kill him.

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

I would, however, view anyone pushing for his lynch with an ounce of suspicion, considering he's confirmed town if he's telling the truth.

Alright let me reply to more of your post now by bolding bits that don't make sense.

1. We may have more information over-all but we'll still have a HUGE SECURITY RISK!!! You're suggesting that we fix the leaky faucet while the Nuclear reactor is on fire.

2. So you admit that he could either be a DOPP or maybe MAYBE a town War Vet. I dunno. This seems like an odd gambit you're willing to take here. Plus if he's a Dopp War Vet the best thing to do would be kill him during the day. In 3/4 of the scenarios we've discussed killing Hapah seems like the logical thing to do.

3. How do you figure that? Obviously he'll just claim WIFOM if he survives and you start pressuring him for that tomorrow.

[webadict]

Bookthras. Ehhh... Are you scum?

No. Are you?

Nope.

Webadict: If you were a dopp, which role would you most fear in the hands of the town?

Agent. I'd be inspected eventually. Though, if I were a Leader, I would welcome Agents. They confirm me. Maybe a War Vet?

Justification.

It seems safer to me to just off you today then just in case. Here's what you're probably trying.

1. You roll dopp. All is not lost.
2. You decide to play the odds that no one actually rolled Kook.
3. You claim and then paint this picture of trying to save our cop a night action.

Equally likely? You're doing what you said you're doing.

However herein lies an issue. Either option is likely. You've admitted we can't trust your claim. Maybe you're town or maybe you're dopp. But right now you're the biggest visible threat. If it inspects dopp like a dopp, and it claims town like a dopp, it's probably a dopp. My vote stands.

Gonna disagree. In fact, Hapah is more likely to be Town based on his claim. There are basically guaranteed to be 1 or 2 Kooks based on statistical evidence. And before you can rudely interrupt me, no, Bookthras, Statistics Lawyer M.D., I realize that's not how statistics works, blah blah blah, bite me. What it means is that I will play the odds and assume Hapah is Town.

So, explain how Hapah is more likely to be scum, Nerjin? Because, the way I see it, you're playing safe and voting someone for doing something pro-Town.

[Bookthras]

People talking about Kooks: Stop it. Just... stop it.

Hapah how can we trust that you really are just a harmless Kook? Seems to me like a decent enough way to pretend to be town when you're really a Dopp.
1) Why did you claim Kook already?

I think the point has been talked to death already (and I hope we can avoid running into the ground again), but I haven't been the speaker in those discussions.

I have been a speaker in those discussions, and can distill a few key facts for those new to the conversation:

1) Claiming kook (i.e., an agent's inspection would return "dopp") is a NULL TELL. "Null" meaning it doesn't make the claimant either more town-like or scum-like. This is important: it is true that if he's dopp he could use this as a screen. It is also true that if he's honest it means he's town. It may also be he's an alien who wants to discourage agents targeting him. You don't know which of these is the case, therefore, as a result of his claim you don't have reasons to think him more town or scum. Hence null tell: people who think the claimant scummy are just as wrong as those who think him townish because of it. He's neither, not more scum or more town than before he made it. Let that bit go and make your case based on other factors (questions, reactions, votes, whatnot).

2) Claiming kook on the first post is fine. Some would say it's even optimal, but claiming it at any point before being inspected is just as good. Jim claimed kook D4 and it was fine, because he was clearly town by then and hadn't been inspected. It's fine to wait, but it's your doom if you're inspected as dopp and say "no, hey, I'm kook!"

The odds of you being dopp are a confirmed 1/4. Odds of being a Kook? Much much lower. Odds of there being multiple Kooks? Comparatively Astronomical!

3) Don't play statistics games on how many kooks there are. We tried that on P18, and it was a lot of fun but ultimately useless. There are games with no kooks. There are games with many kooks. See Meph's post about purposely fucking with people relying on the Gambler's Fallacy to see how dumb this is. If you think someone is scummy, build a case on them based on other factors.

A couple more bits and then, please let's let whoever wants to claim kook claim kook and shut up about this.

I can tell you I'd be deader than dead if I waited until D3 or so to volunteer the information,

As shown above, waiting is perfectly OK if you are actually town and are not inspected.

If there was something one could say to convincingly claim Kook early D1, you can best your ass Dopps would do it every time.

This is exactly true and the reason a kook claim is a null tell. Not a town tell. Not a scum tell. Just a piece of information agents should keep in mind when planning night actions. Nothing more, nothing less. Move on.

I just saved our Cop a night action!

"Our" cop? Oh, how very townie of you...

That was a joke. I was trying to be lighthearted. Last time I try that!

No! Don't give up on lightheartedness. Mafia is not SRSBSNS. Being lighthearted is good and keeps the game enjoyable, as long as you don't derail the thread with jokes and keep the "Play to Win" mantra clearly as primary focus.

[Toaster]

Shakerag:

Toaster:  How would you choose your first target as a mind stealer?  How would you decide when to abduct another player after the first?

If I had any indication that someone was a power role, I'd probably grab them.  This is unlikely on the first day, so I'd just grab someone semi-randomly and base my play on what I found.  Probably would not take someone likely to be watched, so not the most townie players.


Book:

Toaster: are you a kook?

Did I claim it in my first post?  No, I am not.


Hapah:

Toaster: Would you take Holdout Blaster as an Exty? You took DMB in the last Paranormal, and you nearly won.

Probably not.

My thinking that game was to load up on every LYLO breaker there was, and the DMB turned any 3-man LYLO into a win.  As it works now, it's not worth sacrificing the large tech slot just to replicate that.  Shield, maybe.  Blaster, no.


Nerjin:  This discussion has been beaten to death already.  Allow me to reference Paranormal 18 where this discussion took up all of D1.  I stated my opinion on the matter there, and I stand by it 100%.

Ah but here's the thing my dear friend: The odds of you being dopp are a confirmed 1/4. Odds of being a Kook? Much much lower. Odds of there being multiple Kooks? Comparatively Astronomical! While it is possible for there to be multiple kooks the liklihood is low enough that we'd be safer playing the odds that you are just a straight up dopp.

Point 3: That was a joke. I was trying to be lighthearted. Last time I try that!

Jokes are fine when you haven't basically admitted to having symptoms of being one of the Dopps! I'm comfortable with the odds of you being a Dopp vs. you being a kook.

This, however is bad.  First, any argument involving straight statistics is useless and does not belong.  Second, what do you mean multiple kooks?  Hapah is the only person to claim it.

However herein lies an issue. Either option is likely. You've admitted we can't trust your claim. Maybe you're town or maybe you're dopp. But right now you're the biggest visible threat. If it inspects dopp like a dopp, and it claims town like a dopp, it's probably a dopp. My vote stands.

This argument is easy to completely destroy.

Are you a doppelganger?



Captain Ford:

The most dangerous scenario is that he's a doppelganger war vet, and he's encouraging us to night action him. But I think that's a long shot. He could just as easily be a town war vet, and he's trying to save town while encouraging the dopples to night-kill him.

How does claiming Kook attract night actions?

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

This is complete bullshit.  Please explain to me how it makes any sense at all that his survival of the night would have any bearing whatsoever on his alignment?


Web:

Gonna disagree. In fact, Hapah is more likely to be Town based on his claim. There are basically guaranteed to be 1 or 2 Kooks based on statistical evidence. And before you can rudely interrupt me, no, Bookthras, Statistics Lawyer M.D., I realize that's not how statistics works, blah blah blah, bite me. What it means is that I will play the odds and assume Hapah is Town.

I'm going to have to beat Book to the punch here and point you to my above comment on statistical arguments being useless.  Drop them because they suck.


PPE:

1) Claiming kook (i.e., an agent's inspection would return "dopp") is a NULL TELL. "Null" meaning it doesn't make the claimant either more town-like or scum-like. This is important: it is true that if he's dopp he could use this as a screen. It is also true that if he's honest it means he's town. It may also be he's an alien who wants to discourage agents targeting him. You don't know which of these is the case, therefore, as a result of his claim you don't have reasons to think him more town or scum. Hence null tell: people who think the claimant scummy are just as wrong as those who think him townish because of it. He's neither, not more scum or more town than before he made it. Let that bit go and make your case based on other factors (questions, reactions, votes, whatnot).

Quoted for truth.

[Pandarsenic]

Pandar:  Are you the Alien Exterminator?

Hah, I wish (No I don't). I am not the Alien Exterminator.

Pandersenic: If you were a doppelganger psychic warden, how would you pick your target?

1) Disrupt role claims
2) Pin nightkill targets to avoid them being slippery
3) Wonder why you're asking me for advice on how to target things as scum

Bookthras. Ehhh... Are you scum?

No. Are you?
Toaster: are you a kook?
Ottofar:  do you plan to be active this game, or to lurk uselessly for days on end?

Pandarsenic: Long time no see. Please answer the same three questions as above. How's the midterm situation? How long does it take to make it through typing school these days anyway?

I am not scum, I am not a kook, and I plan to be active this game. The midterms/school stuff isn't a concern this time (though it normally would be at this time of year) because I am (for the moment) withdrawn from university for medical reasons.

Everyone: I am going to beat the next person to drag this kook shit in with a trout. This is the exact same garbage as I was seeing when I vanished and it hasn't stopped being a null tell since.

Captain Ford, I'm noticing worrying behaviour from you: You asked me about how to run a Doppelganger role as well as going to great lengths to defend Hapah in a... I don't...

Captain Ford:
How important do you think original questions are in RVS?

Not as important as original answers.

Ford: slight correction: there are four types of guards, those three plus Guardian, who doesn't die if he successfully protects. Also, if you were a reporter, when would you choose to watch instead of following your target?

1. That's the reason I spelled out which three types I meant in the question. I debated whether or not to specify that the guardian was left out, but decided to leave it out for brevity.
2. That's easy. Whenever I trust the target and am more interested in who would want to do him harm than who he is targeting. It's also capable of identifying multiple night actions, whereas following someone can only identify one.

First things first: I am a Kook.

Hapah how can we trust that you really are just a harmless Kook? Seems to me like a decent enough way to pretend to be town when you're really a Dopp.

(emphasis mine)

...I really hope you're not a doppleganger war vet. Because that would be a great way for wiping out a lot of town roles.

On the other hand, I kind of hope you're a town war vet, since the dopples are likely to target a confirmed townie.

PPE: Responding to 2 new posts:

It seems safer to me to just off you today then just in case. Here's what you're probably trying.
-snip-

I disagree, because we'll have more information overall if we lynch somebody else. He's an easy lynch right now, and if he does flip dopple, we'll have less to go on for picking tomorrow's targets.

The most dangerous scenario is that he's a doppelganger war vet, and he's encouraging us to night action him. But I think that's a long shot. He could just as easily be a town war vet, and he's trying to save town while encouraging the dopples to night-kill him.

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

I would, however, view anyone pushing for his lynch with an ounce of suspicion, considering he's confirmed town if he's telling the truth.

Am I insane? Am I rusty? Are people not seeing this as being as much of a trainwreck of scumminess as I'm seeing? Pretty much every "Ooh look Mafia words" I can think of applies - buddying, bullshit claims of confirmed town, WIFOM out the ass.

Captain Ford, what are you hoping for this post to accomplish?

[Captain Ford]

Massive WIFOM.

Alright let me reply to more of your post now by bolding bits that don't make sense.

1. We may have more information over-all but we'll still have a HUGE SECURITY RISK!!! You're suggesting that we fix the leaky faucet while the Nuclear reactor is on fire.

2. So you admit that he could either be a DOPP or maybe MAYBE a town War Vet. I dunno. This seems like an odd gambit you're willing to take here. Plus if he's a Dopp War Vet the best thing to do would be kill him during the day. In 3/4 of the scenarios we've discussed killing Hapah seems like the logical thing to do.

3. How do you figure that? Obviously he'll just claim WIFOM if he survives and you start pressuring him for that tomorrow.

I apologize for my post being a mess. After rearranging 3 or 4 times in response to your posts back and forth, I got to the point where I said 'screw it' and posted.

My logic was based on faulty reasoning. I thought he might attract someone trying to verify his claim ... and it wasn't until later that I realized, "oh wait, he's a kook. He'll be dopp either way." Derp.

1) Claiming kook (i.e., an agent's inspection would return "dopp") is a NULL TELL. "Null" meaning it doesn't make the claimant either more town-like or scum-like. This is important: it is true that if he's dopp he could use this as a screen. It is also true that if he's honest it means he's town. It may also be he's an alien who wants to discourage agents targeting him. You don't know which of these is the case, therefore, as a result of his claim you don't have reasons to think him more town or scum. Hence null tell: people who think the claimant scummy are just as wrong as those who think him townish because of it. He's neither, not more scum or more town than before he made it. Let that bit go and make your case based on other factors (questions, reactions, votes, whatnot).

This right here. This is exactly what I was trying to (clumsily) get at.

And with that, I'm going to actually read the last few posts and move on to something else.

[webadict]

1) Claiming kook (i.e., an agent's inspection would return "dopp") is a NULL TELL. "Null" meaning it doesn't make the claimant either more town-like or scum-like. This is important: it is true that if he's dopp he could use this as a screen. It is also true that if he's honest it means he's town. It may also be he's an alien who wants to discourage agents targeting him. You don't know which of these is the case, therefore, as a result of his claim you don't have reasons to think him more town or scum. Hence null tell: people who think the claimant scummy are just as wrong as those who think him townish because of it. He's neither, not more scum or more town than before he made it. Let that bit go and make your case based on other factors (questions, reactions, votes, whatnot).

Quoted for truth.

Wrong. By statistical evidence, Kook claims are actually a Town tell.

I believe that 90%+ of Kook claims have been by town. By this, I can claim that Kook claiming is a Town tell. If I go back and find every Kook claim, I will find a positive correlation between town alignment and Kook claims. With this, it is empirical evidence dictates I'm correct.

And not only can I claim that Kook claiming is a towntell, but I can also claim that the likelihood that a Kook is Town far outweighs that a Kook is NOT town.

Wanna try that again Toaster?

[Captain Ford]

Captain Ford:

The most dangerous scenario is that he's a doppelganger war vet, and he's encouraging us to night action him. But I think that's a long shot. He could just as easily be a town war vet, and he's trying to save town while encouraging the dopples to night-kill him.

How does claiming Kook attract night actions?

I mentioned this in my last post, but I derped and managed to forget that Kook meant that a race inspect was worthless.

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

This is complete bullshit.  Please explain to me how it makes any sense at all that his survival of the night would have any bearing whatsoever on his alignment?

Yes, it is. It has no bearing on his alignment. I was responding to Nerjin saying "My vote stands" by saying "that's stupid. Wait until we have more information".

Captain Ford, I'm noticing worrying behaviour from you: You asked me about how to run a Doppelganger role as well as going to great lengths to defend Hapah in a... I don't...

1. I'm terrible at coming up with questions. I picked a random role and then realized it was a more interesting question if I added 'doppleganger' in front of it. That's all.
2. I was not defending Hapah. I was positing a plausible scenario, seeking others opinions (since I'm still new), and seeing how Nerjin reacted to my pointing suspicion towards him (subtly).

Captain Ford, what are you hoping for this post to accomplish?

My primary objective was to post. Beyond that, to seek other's opinions (I certainly got them) and inspire debate. Also, to probe Nerjin (and Hapah) for a reaction.

I had worried that it might look like me defending Hapah, so I waited until after it played out a bit to post my opinion.

PPE: Also, I have to object to this:

1) Claiming kook (i.e., an agent's inspection would return "dopp") is a NULL TELL. "Null" meaning it doesn't make the claimant either more town-like or scum-like. This is important: it is true that if he's dopp he could use this as a screen. It is also true that if he's honest it means he's town. It may also be he's an alien who wants to discourage agents targeting him. You don't know which of these is the case, therefore, as a result of his claim you don't have reasons to think him more town or scum. Hence null tell: people who think the claimant scummy are just as wrong as those who think him townish because of it. He's neither, not more scum or more town than before he made it. Let that bit go and make your case based on other factors (questions, reactions, votes, whatnot).

Quoted for truth.

Wrong. By statistical evidence, Kook claims are actually a Town tell.

I believe that 90%+ of Kook claims have been by town. By this, I can claim that Kook claiming is a Town tell. If I go back and find every Kook claim, I will find a positive correlation between town alignment and Kook claims. With this, it is empirical evidence dictates I'm correct.

And not only can I claim that Kook claiming is a towntell, but I can also claim that the likelihood that a Kook is Town far outweighs that a Kook is NOT town.

Wanna try that again Toaster?

Didn't somebody just say something about the gambler's fallacy?

[Toaster]

Web:

1) Claiming kook (i.e., an agent's inspection would return "dopp") is a NULL TELL. "Null" meaning it doesn't make the claimant either more town-like or scum-like. This is important: it is true that if he's dopp he could use this as a screen. It is also true that if he's honest it means he's town. It may also be he's an alien who wants to discourage agents targeting him. You don't know which of these is the case, therefore, as a result of his claim you don't have reasons to think him more town or scum. Hence null tell: people who think the claimant scummy are just as wrong as those who think him townish because of it. He's neither, not more scum or more town than before he made it. Let that bit go and make your case based on other factors (questions, reactions, votes, whatnot).

Quoted for truth.

Wrong. By statistical evidence, Kook claims are actually a Town tell.

I believe that 90%+ of Kook claims have been by town. By this, I can claim that Kook claiming is a Town tell. If I go back and find every Kook claim, I will find a positive correlation between town alignment and Kook claims. With this, it is empirical evidence dictates I'm correct.

And not only can I claim that Kook claiming is a towntell, but I can also claim that the likelihood that a Kook is Town far outweighs that a Kook is NOT town.

Wanna try that again Toaster?

Didn't somebody just say something about the gambler's fallacy?

Come on, Web, even the new guy knows that one.  You can rely on statistics here, but you'd be a fool to do so.

[Bookthras]

Pandarsenic:

Pandar:  Are you the Alien Exterminator?

Hah, I wish (No I don't).

Really? Had you been given a choice to be the Exterminator, would you have declined? Or what do you mean by that "No I don't" thing?

The midterms/school stuff isn't a concern this time because I am (for the moment) withdrawn from university for medical reasons.

We seem to have an abundance of bedridden convalescent Obamacare-parasite penguins. I'm glad life put a bit of pain on y'all's path so you could take a break off it and play some mafia, but I do wish you well and hope you all recover to eventually terrorise future games.


Speaking of infirm has-beens:

And not only can I claim that Kook claiming is a towntell, but I can also claim that the likelihood that a Kook is Town far outweighs that a Kook is NOT town.

Dude, you are free to hold your own misconceptions about stuff, but don't try to push them on others. No, it is not a town tell, because a dopp or alien is equally able to use it to their advantage this game. Your bringing up what happened and how kooks and dopps and whatnot acted last game has no bearing on how they will act this game. This is what the lessons of the Gambler's Fallacy should teach you.

Yeah, ten heads in a row, therefore next one is tails, yes? No. That's the very point of it. You think conclusions drawn from different people acting in different circumstances are currently applicable at your own peril. This game is this game, and in this game (and every game on its own) how to play the kook or dopp or alien claim/fakeclaim card is up to those who are in it then. You want to harbour unjustified views, knock yourself out, but don't push them on others. To wit:

Didn't somebody just say something about the gambler's fallacy?

Yeah, this:

I will intentionally mess or not mess with stuff just to screw up anyone depending on the Gambler's Fallacy.

[Jack A T]

Jack AT: What would your Survivor small tech pick be? Why?

Hapah: Probably a Personal Shield.  As a survivor, my goal would be to not die, and a personal shield is excellent for, well, not dying.

It seems safer to me to just off you today then just in case. Here's what you're probably trying.

1. You roll dopp. All is not lost.
2. You decide to play the odds that no one actually rolled Kook.
3. You claim and then paint this picture of trying to save our cop a night action.

Equally likely? You're doing what you said you're doing.

However herein lies an issue. Either option is likely. You've admitted we can't trust your claim. Maybe you're town or maybe you're dopp. But right now you're the biggest visible threat. If it inspects dopp like a dopp, and it claims town like a dopp, it's probably a dopp. My vote stands.

Ah but here's the thing my dear friend: The odds of you being dopp are a confirmed 1/4. Odds of being a Kook? Much much lower. Odds of there being multiple Kooks? Comparatively Astronomical! While it is possible for there to be multiple kooks the liklihood is low enough that we'd be safer playing the odds that you are just a straight up dopp.

(bolded by me)
Nerjin: So, just to be clear, what you are saying is that Hapah is probably a dopp?  However, you are also saying that it is just as likely that Hapah is a dopp as it is likely that Hapah is a kook?  However, you are also saying that the chance of Hapah being a kook is much smaller than the chance of Hapah being a dopp?  Those can't all be true.

Also, guess who else claims town?  Town does.

On the other hand, I kind of hope you're a town war vet, since the dopples are likely to target a confirmed townie.

Captain Ford: What.  How the fuck is Hapah a confirmed townie?

Anyways, if we don't lynch him, and he survives the night, then I think he's worth some more attention. Unvote.

I would, however, view anyone pushing for his lynch with an ounce of suspicion, considering he's confirmed town if he's telling the truth.

...On the night survival: No.  It doesn't work like that.  At all.  Heck, if it did work like that, it certainly doesn't now, seeing how you've basically told the mafia not to kill Hapah so that you'll pay more attention to Hapah.

On the "confirmed town" thing: Again, how the fuck is Hapah confirmed town?  And doesn't the fact that you're attaching a conditional to his confirmed towniness kind of defeat the point of calling him confirmed town?

[webadict]

Speaking of infirm has-beens:

And not only can I claim that Kook claiming is a towntell, but I can also claim that the likelihood that a Kook is Town far outweighs that a Kook is NOT town.

Dude, you are free to hold your own misconceptions about stuff, but don't try to push them on others. No, it is not a town tell, because a dopp or alien is equally able to use it to their advantage this game. Your bringing up what happened and how kooks and dopps and whatnot acted last game has no bearing on how they will act this game. This is what the lessons of the Gambler's Fallacy should teach you.

Yeah, ten heads in a row, therefore next one is tails, yes? No. That's the very point of it. You think conclusions drawn from different people acting in different circumstances are currently applicable at your own peril. This game is this game, and in this game (and every game on its own) how to play the kook or dopp or alien claim/fakeclaim card is up to those who are in it then. You want to harbour unjustified views, knock yourself out, but don't push them on others. To wit:

Didn't somebody just say something about the gambler's fallacy?

Yeah, this:

I will intentionally mess or not mess with stuff just to screw up anyone depending on the Gambler's Fallacy.

Oh ho ho. Everyone thinks their a statistician just because they can quote a few things and pretend they know what the Gambler's Fallacy is...

*sigh*

Listen. If I see 19 black sheep and 1 white sheep from 20 different pastures in Ireland, I can safely make an assumption that most of the sheep in Ireland are black. Hence, that would mean if some Irish bloke told me he had a sheep, I'd assume it was black. Can I be wrong? Yes. Will I be? Probably not.

You guys focus so much on the small chances that you miss the big chances. Given the choice, I would shoot every last one of you but Hapah in the head, because I'd more than likely win.

That's what makes claiming Kook a Town tell. Because it is done more by Town than scum. This is how you use data from old games. This isn't the Gambler's Fallacy. This is statistics, backed by psychology. But man, my 101 classes clearly never went over how to interpret data or make logical deductions.

Do you know WHY scum never claim Kook? Doppelgangers aren't ballsy enough as to make themselves look scummy, and Aliens aren't retarded enough to even try that. Town does it so that they save an Agent from using an action, but make up for it by being under increased scrutiny, something a Townie wouldn't mind, but scum would.

Gambler's Fallacy:
Now, let's look at how your abusive misuse of the Gambler's Fallacy fails: You are using coins, which have a calculable probability - Heads 50%; Tails 50%. Each event is independent. However, you fail to take in to account that the event you're tying this to has NO calculable probability. This means that the probability for each event is UNKNOWN. So, that means that if, say, two unknown cards are placed into a hat, and someone pulls out the Ace of Hearts 10 times in a row, that there is a good chance that both of those cards are the Ace of Hearts (Greater than 99% actually). Which means that saying the Ace of Hearts will be picked again is actually a good choice.

This is why you're using the Gambler's Fallacy incorrectly. You act like I have no concept of statistics. I do. I have a very good grasp of it, actually. You should be checking that coin for two heads, because you might have failed to check your assumptions.

So, can you really tell me that there's a chance that a Kook is scum or town equal to that of any player? Because the empirical evidence shows you're wrong, and you refuse to admit it. I claim Kooks have a very high chance of being Town. And seeing as how each individual player has about a 35% chance to not be Town, versus about a less than 10% chance to not be Town (There have been about 1-2 fakeclaims versus about 20+ Kooks), I'm going to say that... Kookclaimers are generally Town. So, until you can show a good reason for Kookclaiming to not be a Towntell, I will forever defend Kooks.

Just saying, Book. You're playing with fire and you have no idea how to use it. You're just lucky that nobody else knows how to use it either.

[Jim Groovester]

However, you fail to take in to account that the event you're tying this to has NO calculable probability.

This isn't true. This is a perfectly calculable probability.

Spoiler: MATHS (click to show/hide)

In a Mephansteras game, x fraction of the players are Kooks, y fraction are scum, and none are both scum and Kooks. Therefore, 1 - x - y fraction of the players are town.

A Kook will claim Kook with probability p, scum will claim Kook with probability q, and town will claim Kook with probability r. Given that a player has claimed Kook, what is the probability that they are scum?

P(X is scum | X claimed Kook) = (P(X is scum) * P(X claimed Kook | X is scum)) / (P(X is town) * P(X claimed Kook | X is town) + P(X is Kook) * P(X claimed Kook | X is Kook) + P(X is scum) * P(X claimed Kook | X is scum))
      = qy / (px + qy + (1 - x - y)r)

Supply whatever values between 0 and 1 you find appropriate for p, q, r, x, and y, and compute. Or, even better, determine them based on previous games.

This probability is even calculable if whether there's a Kook in the game or not is a probability of its own, I just don't want to formulate it because I'm lazy. Why, there's probabilities for everything. It's probabilities all the way down!

tl;dr PROBABILIPWNED