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[FearfulJesuit]

Link.

Long story short: the Iranian rial fell 18% against the dollar yesterday, and inflation in the country is running at 24%. One wonders if the regime will be able to hold out much longer...I certainly hope not.

[Levi]

They were voted in, weren't they?  Regime seems a little harsh.  And keep in mind its generally the people that suffer the most from these things.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Firstly, any government consisting of a certain group of people is properly defined as a regime.

Secondly, yes, they were voted in, in the sense that the President was voted in by more people than actually live in Iran. And he can be overruled by a council of twelve unelected clerics. It's a theocracy, man.

Thirdly, the people suffering is the point. The idea of the sanctions is to convince them to rise up against the theocracy. It isn't like they don't suffer in other ways because it controls the nation. We're talking about a place where gay people get executed for existing and women can be stoned to death for "sorcery".

I'm glad this is happening. This is more or less Just As Planned. Hopefully a revolution will commence sooner rather than later.

[Flying Dice]

Yep. Plus a non-theocratic Iran would mean that only one side of the Israel-Iran square-off is being propped up by hard right religious conservatives with the willingness to use nuclear weapons in preemptive strikes.


Coincidentally, when I read the thread title, I thought for a moment that every rial in the world had simultaneously collapsed into a tiny, undervalued singularity.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Now that's not completely fair. Only part of Israel's government are hard right religious conservatives who want to nuke the region, and they're only like that because Israeli culture is infamously paranoid.

[Flying Dice]

Now that's not completely fair. Only part of Israel's government are hard right religious conservatives who want to nuke the region, and they're only like that because Israeli culture is infamously paranoid.

Hence the "propped up". Give Israel a few decades for the old hardliners to die off and things will probably be better. That said, do they really have any reason to be paranoid any more? Well, yes, and a damned good one, but given their history they can handle themselves, seeing how well they've done in pretty much every war they've ever had. Not to mention that they are (probably) the only power in the region with a nuclear arsenal.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Which is why Iran getting nukes would be so very bad. As long as it's just Israel they'd have to reconcile the idea of nuking nations with no ability to similarly retaliate. Even in open conflict, that's a pretty horrifying thing to do. For the moment, Israel is in a state where even the hard right religious conservatives are content to just wave the nukes around scaring everyone with no actual intent to deploy them.

Once Iran gets nukes, it could settle into a mini-Cold War situation like Pakistan and India's, but it could also lead to the destruction of the human race. With Iran and Israel having a relationship that is orders of magnitude worse than the USA and USSR's or even Pakistan and India's, that is a gamble we really should not be taking.

[Flying Dice]

And so we come full circle to why the current Iranian regime being ousted would be good.

[RedWarrior0]

Yeah, even if it stays non-nuclear, another Iran-Israel war would be a Bad Thing. Even with the US pimping out the Israeli military. Because there is plenty of not-Iran-or-Israel area in between them, and how do you think the nations in the middle would react to either nation launching an invasion force through there? How about fighting a war there? I can't imagine it would end well.

Of course, it could be an air war. In which case Iran loses to the Israeli Air Force. Fast. And oil is still kind of the only thing keeping Iran from being turned into a parking lot made of glass.

[Neonivek]

I think the whole "Iran gets nukes" thing is INCREDIBLY stupid on our side.

Iran is actually making all the right moves for itself. Getting nukes is one of the best things it can do for itself.

We however, even though we ABSOLUTELY do not want Iran to get those nukes, won't do a single thing except look at them really angry.

Why would Iran listen to us? Why would they deliberately hurt themselves because we might be mad at them?

Between Iran and Us... Iran is the one who managed not to look like an idiot.

Yeah, even if it stays non-nuclear

Historically speaking the most likely eventuality is that Iran getting nukes will actually stop the Iran-Israel wars.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Yeah, even if it stays non-nuclear, another Iran-Israel war would be a Bad Thing. Even with the US pimping out the Israeli military. Because there is plenty of not-Iran-or-Israel area in between them, and how do you think the nations in the middle would react to either nation launching an invasion force through there? How about fighting a war there? I can't imagine it would end well.

It would also be weird. Syria is in a civil war, so they wouldn't officially enter the conflict. Turkey likes the US but dislikes Israel, so it would either be on Israel's side or neutral. Jordan and Israel have issues to say the least, so Jordan would probably be on Iran's side. Egypt is a wild card, popular consensus there is really against Israel but breaking the peace treaty would lead to an immediate loss of US aid. Israel, Iran, and Neutrality are all possible. Tunisia is too far removed and would probably remain neutral. Libya now has pro-US sentiment and doesn't directly conflict with Israel, so it could end up with Israel or neutral. Iraq has waning US influence but also anti-Iranian sentiment and could well end up on Israel's side.

But here's the weird one. Saudi Arabia. No official channels with Israel. Doesn't care for Iran because it is the world's largest population of Shias, and while the Wahhabists don't care much for Jews or anyone who isn't a Wahabbi Sunni they can't stand Shias. Thus would begin the most surreal alliance in history as Israel and Saudi Arabia team up to take down Iran.

Iran is actually making all the right moves for itself. Getting nukes is one of the best things it can do for itself.

Getting nuked by Israel isn't a good thing for your country.

We however, even though we ABSOLUTELY do not want Iran to get those nukes, won't do a single thing except look at them really angry.

Except for planting car bombs on their nuclear scientists and implanting state of the art virii into their nuclear plants. Don't you remember all that stuff?

Historically speaking the most likely eventuality is that Iran getting nukes will actually stop the Iran-Israel wars.

Yes, because everyone will be dead.

[Hurize]

If they don't get a nuclear bomb, we can override them with force.

If I am correct:
Their riflemen pack AK-74s and AK-14s with the occasional RPG-18
Their snipers pack Dragunovs
They use T-72 tanks

American riflemen pack M4A1-CQBRs along with FN-SCARs of variant types. They also pack a shoulder fire variant of the BGM-71 TOW.
American Snipers use McMillan Tac. 50 A1-R2s and Barrett M82s.
American Tanks are the M1 and M2 Abrams

How could U.S. lose against a country like Iran?

[zombie urist]

Dunno. How did the US lose in Vietnam?

[Flying Dice]

That's almost beside the point. Given sufficient civilian and military morale (hardly a likely thing), the US could win a conventional war against any other nation on Earth.

Dunno. How did the US lose in Vietnam?

Loss of confidence. Loss of civilian support for the war and administration. Inability to eat losses like a RTS player.

[Hurize]

Dunno. How did the US lose in Vietnam?

Heavily forested surroundings along with the fact that it was mostly a air campaign?