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[zombie urist]

Day was already extended.

[Shakerag]

The Cop has not yet outed or died. They're probably lying low with a bunch of innocents. - I personally have a cop read, but I will not out it.

[There is no guarantee that a cop role is in this game.]

What was your impression of Kingfisher/Borno?

That neither one can stick around in a game to save his life.  Outside of that, no worthwhile read.  Here's to hoping MrCelt sticks around long enough for me to establish one. 

[...]
[...]On another note, can it be a wise approach to town-hunt rather than scumhunt (ie. looking for town-tells and deducing scum through deduction) in difficult games such as these?

I can't recommend townhunting since it's not something I know how to do nor have I tried it. Actively looking for the people you don't need to lynch doesn't sound like that great of a strategy to me.

[Just as a general note and a response to Flandre, this is something that I will do every so often.  I think a good example is BM34.]

Shakerag: is this summary of events correct? Is there anything you want to add?
Can you give me a summary of your case (if any) on Captain Ford from D2?

Without bothering to read back specifically, that looks generally right to me.  From what I remember (again, without rereading in detail), I didn't have any terribly strong case on CF on D2.  While I didn't peg him as scum, I didn't get much of a town read off of him.  Outside of a very slight gut feeling, I mostly voted him for pressure and to see if I could get a stronger read on him one way or another. 

Following up on your post #337:  My vote on CF after his RVS-unvote was pressure.  I thought him saying that he was going to follow up on Nerjin but never found the time a bit odd, so I thought I'd throw a vote on him to see if anything significant happened. 

As an aside, whether his unvoting was a "logical town action" or not is irrelevant.  Scum are trying to do "logcal town actions" as well, so if you call someone on a "logical town action" but they panic or do something scummy, then I'd consider that a vote well placed. 

Also, if I hadn't bothered to unvote by the end of D1 and kept my vote on CF, would that have changed anything?

Finally:  Don't underestimate blind flailing luck. 


MrCelt: Who is your top suspect and why aren't you questioning/voting them?

Flandre: Do you think Captain Ford had any suspicious interactions (or notable lack of interactions) with any specific player(s)?

Scottzar: Assuming that I'm scum, what reasons do you believe I would have had for bussing my partner on D2?

Jim: What's your analysis of the D2 ending votecount?

[Reverie]

I'm sorry for not participating today, guys. I didn't have any time to set aside for mafia, but things should be better tomorrow.
Mondays, sigh...

[MrCelt]

Shakerag: I don't see an obvious scum, but my top fos is probably flandre.  - He's fairly inactive, and really needs to contribute more.

Jim: Your opinion on MrCelt, please. I haven't got a good read on him in comparison to others, and his previous incarnations barely posted.
Further, do you find Shakerag scummy at all? How much is their pressure vote on you influencing this decision, if at all?

Also waiting on this.

Shakerag: What're your reads?
Flandre: You appear to be quite neutral on your fos list, perhaps trying to not get on anyone's bad side. - Who is your #1 - Why haven't you applied pressure?
Jim: What's your opinion of Scottzar - Why?
Scottzar: You're voting Jim. What's your justification?

[Scottzar]

Scottzar: Assuming that I'm scum, what reasons do you believe I would have had for bussing my partner on D2?

You didn't expect the day to cut out short, and thus were only 'pressuring' him. When he answered you, you could easily unvote, and because he would likely be lynched before you, you would look clean because you had a healthy but not excessive interaction with him.
The reason it seems scummy here is mostly a matter of circumstance: i.e. besides Nabic pressure vote, you're the only one to have ever voted him outside of RVS.

As an aside, whether his unvoting was a "logical town action" or not is irrelevant.  Scum are trying to do "logcal town actions" as well, so if you call someone on a "logical town action" but they panic or do something scummy, then I'd consider that a vote well placed.

Also, if I hadn't bothered to unvote by the end of D1 and kept my vote on CF, would that have changed anything?

By "logical town action" I meant that it wasn't explicitly a scumslip. This was because he unvoted out of the blue, which is in general pretty fishy if unjustified, but justified in this case because it was an old RVS vote.

And yes, if you hadn't bothered to unvote, I would have seen you as much more scummy and probably started the day accusing you. Your case on Captain Ford was not, per se, a proper lynch-worthy case, and keeping your vote on him for multiple days is a clear indicator of a desire to lynch, is it not?

Shakerag: if we had known the day was going to end when it did, due to not being able to extend or w/e, would you have kept your vote on CF?

Scottzar: You're voting Jim. What's your justification?

How did you arrive at this conclusion?

Current vote count:

MrCelt:
Flandre:
scottzar [1]: Jim Groovester
Jim Groovester [1]: Shakerag
Shakerag:
Not voting: MrCelt, Flandre, scottzar

Made size 18 for my emphasis.

MrCelt: Why are you waiting on Jim's opinion on you, or do you only care about Shakerag in this instance. Further: do you care at all how scummy others perceive you to be?

Flandre: you said you would post on Tuesday. It's 10 pm Tuesday in America. The absolute earliest you could possibly be at is 6 pm. We haven't received a PFP either. I'd like to see that scumhunting, please.
What's your opinion on Jim?
What's your opinion on Shakerag?
What's your opinion on the interactions between the two?

[Jim Groovester]

Shakerag then took this as a reason to vote, despite it being a logical action from a town perspective; CF was putting pressure elsewhere instead.

Captain Ford: What's stopping you from following up on Nerjin?

I can't see how CF possibly slipped in unvoting, he maybe he should have put pressure on Nerjin anyway but Shakerag didn't call him out on that. Instead, he called him out on not following him up; but CF never had a case on Nerjin.

You'll note that Captain Ford said about his RVS question to Nerjin that:

Random vote. I always meant to follow it up but never found the time.

And then he proceeds to unvote Nerjin in the very same post. As far as I can see it, Shakerag's vote on Captain Ford for that is entirely justified. I will bring up Toaster's #1 Scumtell: Failing to deliver promised scumhunting. If Captain Ford failed to follow up on Nerjin when he conceivably had time (i.e., the same post he unvoted Nerjin) then Shakerag had good reason to vote Captain Ford for it.

And this makes Shakerag scum because...?

This conveniently didn't attach him to the doctor lynch, and he could remain neutral on Mr.Zero because it would have been a tie if he voted that way.

Not even scum know a priori that when someone's lynched they're going to be the doctor. It's ridiculous to hold it against him that he wasn't on the doctor mislynch as if that's something he knew was going to happen.

Ergo, his attacks on CF were largely unsubstantiated, and considering CF was scum, this implies either blind flailing luck or knowing something he shouldn't. Skakerag is either a cop or a scum, or inexperienced, and the third of these is impossible.

I disagree. There's the stuff i brought up above, and additionally, when I briefly looked over the game I found that Shakerag had good arguments against Captain Ford.

So why do you think he's scummy? Because of a convoluted set of circumstances that don't mean what you're claiming them to mean?

Jim: Your opinion on MrCelt, please. I haven't got a good read on him in comparison to others, and his previous incarnations barely posted.
Further, do you find Shakerag scummy at all? How much is their pressure vote on you influencing this decision, if at all?

I have no significant opinion on MrCelt besides that he is an improvement in terms of activity over the people he replaced, which I think is a good sign.

I don't find Shakerag scummy. Shakerag's vote has nothing to do with my reads on any player. Regardless of what his actual reasons are for voting me and holding that vote, I take it more as a kick in the pants than anything else. I haven't heard anything out of him like "Jim is lurking scum" so I'm thinking my assumption is right.

Jim: What's your analysis of the D2 ending votecount?

That Captain Ford screwed up and that the extension that was overlooked probably should have happened.

Looking at a votecount in absentia (woooo latin) of everything else doesn't strike me as a particularly productive move. Why ask about the votecount alone?

If you want me to look at it non in absentia, I think Mr.Zero/Flandre was a target of convenience for Captain Ford and that's why he voted him and unvoted him just as easily. Other scum might be thinking the same thing, which suggests Scottzar may be on the scumteam but it could just as easily be a meaningless coincidence. I don't read too much into that.

As for everything else, a bunch of people not voting, shame on them, and I doubt you'd vote Captain Ford knowing the day was close to end without expecting to lynch him, so I think that's a point in your favor.

Jim: What's your opinion of Scottzar - Why?

Initially I voted him for pressure but upon hearing his response I think he's scummy.

Scottzar: You're voting Jim. What's your justification?

Note that on the votecount, the left side is reserved for targets. I am voting Scottzar.

[Reverie]

MrCelt:

Flandre: You appear to be quite neutral on your fos list, perhaps trying to not get on anyone's bad side. - Who is your #1 - Why haven't you applied pressure?

Pressure does not necessarily have to be immediate. Questions without a pressuring tone can establish a relaxed baseline to which responses to meanie-face questions can compare (for example). I happen to like warming into it.

Shakerag: I don't see an obvious scum, but my top fos is probably flandre.  - He's fairly inactive, and really needs to contribute more.

Passive.
If you want to dance, all you have to do is ask. (Fret not, though...girls can lead too.)

Shakerag was voted by Captain, who flipped mafia. Seems fairly clear, Groovester on the other hand does not have this advantage on their side.
Flandre has taken over the role of Mr. Zero - From what I read of Mr. Zero, I consider him to be more of a newbie townie that a mafia - Also voted Captain ford when there was no bandwagon, not something a mafia would usually do.

You can't effectively deduce who the mafia are by considering probable events as a basis for your arguments/reads. Speculations on the woulds and coulds of scum behavior are counter-productive and only serves to look colorful and busy.
That being said, the former statement you made in the above quote (about Shakerag's advantage over Jim) doesn't line up properly with your response to my question:
 

Did Ford's vote on Shakerag compel you into thinking that Shakerag was town? With Jim and Shakerag in opposition (as you say), does this have any influence on your read of Jim as well?

Ford's vote on Shakerag does not say anything to me due to tactics such as bussing et cetera, if ford believed he may die, he could try such a tactic to effectively 'clear' Shakerag. however the way Shakerag plays suggests him being town. Yes, I realise he's an experienced IC. - With Jim and Shakerag in opposition, I definitely am able to get a better read off on Jim, but nothing that suggests him being mafia, however, given the experience of the two players, it is not impossible they are two mafia working together to effectively bus.

You dismiss biases on the matter to WIFOM, and by extension, the idea that Shakerag had any advantage over Jim after all. If you do not hold to your own contributions, are they just empty words? Superficial claims that are made to look busy?

MrCelt: Kindly define 'advantage' in the context of your reads between Jim and Shakerag. Minus the wine, do you have a read for either of them?


Shakerag:

Flandre: Do you think Captain Ford had any suspicious interactions (or notable lack of interactions) with any specific player(s)?

I've looked through the thread with a focus on Captain Ford after he died, and I've determined several things:
-Ford avoided the ICs (which I guess is par for the course as newbie scum)
-He did not interact much with Kingfisher/Borno
-He took a pro-Mr.Zero stance (likely mirroring Shakerag in an effort to appease him)

[Just as a general note and a response to Flandre, this is something that I will do every so often.  I think a good example is BM34.]

I'll take a look through that at some point, but for the sake of reliability, I'll just stick to hunting scum.
Would you say that Jim not voting at day end is atypical enough of him to declare it a scumtell, or are you more suspicious of his lack of activity?

[Reverie]

EBWOP:

Flandre: you said you would post on Tuesday. It's 10 pm Tuesday in America. The absolute earliest you could possibly be at is 6 pm. We haven't received a PFP either. I'd like to see that scumhunting, please.
What's your opinion on Jim?
What's your opinion on Shakerag?
What's your opinion on the interactions between the two?

I'll do these questions more justice when I am not tearing at the eyes from yawning so much.
Operation: Sleepy Time is a-go.

[MrCelt]

MrCelt: Why are you waiting on Jim's opinion on you, or do you only care about Shakerag in this instance. Further: do you care at all how scummy others perceive you to be?

Apologies on messing up your question, mate - I meant to ask that question to Jim.

I was actually waiting on the second part, on Shakerag.

Yes. I care about how scummy I am, to an extent - I don't want to be a mislynch on mylo/lylo for obvious reasons, but I'm not going to go around rereading everything before I post to avoid sounding scummy.

MrCelt: Kindly define 'advantage' in the context of your reads between Jim and Shakerag. Minus the wine, do you have a read for either of them?

Shakerag, as I have said is the only really lead I have. I consider him to be town.

Jim appears to be in conflict with Shakerag, but since has changed to Scottzar-  I don't really think he's scummy, but he's hardly towny - which could be considered as being a town.
Quoting him:

I don't find Shakerag scummy. Shakerag's vote has nothing to do with my reads on any player. Regardless of what his actual reasons are for voting me and holding that vote, I take it more as a kick in the pants than anything else. I haven't heard anything out of him like "Jim is lurking scum" so I'm thinking my assumption is right.

I'm not sure what you meant on advantage.

Jim: Why's do you find Scottzar scummy? Quote and opinion.
Scottzar: Given that Jim is fos'ing you, what's your opinion of him?
Flandre: Asides from myself, who's your fos?

[Shakerag]

Shakerag: What're your reads?

Flandre: Potentially town by nature of newbtown read on Mr.Zero and nothing to sway me away from that impression since replacing in.
MrCelt: Maybe town.  I'm suspicious of there being little CF <-> kingfisher/borno interaction, but I feel like I've seen some newbtown slips from MrCelt regardless.
Jim: Maybe scum.  Meta-analysis tells me his game is off and different from other BMs, but it also tells me that he's ass-high in schoolwork, which may explain some of that.  Don't like that he didn't vote by D2 end, and he doesn't seem to be hunting out scum very much to me.
Scottzar: Maybe scum, but largely due to virtue of process of elimination.  I think I remember thinking xny had a good, strong game going for him, and I can't really put my finger on anything scummy about Scottzar off the top of my head.  Possibly just a hint of a gut feeling there.

Shakerag: if we had known the day was going to end when it did, due to not being able to extend or w/e, would you have kept your vote on CF?

Yes.  I didn't have a hell of a lot to go on with the other players, so I would have stuck with my gut in a field of poor reads. 


Flandre, MrCelt: What's your take on why Jim's voting Scottzar?

Jim: Is there anything on previous days to reinforce your case on Scottzar?

[MrCelt]

Flandre, MrCelt: What's your take on why Jim's voting Scottzar?

Mind PM'ing me those newbtown slips and explanations of why they're bad some time? - Perhaps after the game? First proper forum mafia, would like to improve.

To answer your question; I'd like an in-depth analysis of the whole debacle from both sides, for now I'm slightly swaying towards scottzar, but I can't think of any real reasons. - I also got a little gut feeling, I suppose, but nothing major enough to really vote him.

I'm suspicious of there being little CF <-> kingfisher/borno interaction

To be fair, there was little Kingfisher/borno -> Anyone interaction.

[zombie urist]

Current vote count:

MrCelt [1]: Flandre
Flandre [1]: Scottzar
scottzar [1]: Jim Groovester
Jim Groovester [1]: Shakerag
Shakerag:

Not voting: MrCelt

Extension requests: 0
Shorten requests: 0

2 votes needed to extend the day
3 votes needed to shorten the day

Day 3 will end Thursday, November 15th at 9:00 PM PST.

Please post. Please please please.

[Jim Groovester]

Jim: Why's do you find Scottzar scummy? Quote and opinion.

Mostly Scottzar's bad case on Shakerag.

Scottzar's primary assertion is that Shakerag acted in a way that could only plausibly be explained by Shakerag being scum, an assertion I countered in my most recent post. There's no significant expansion of my reasoning beyond that post. However, if you want quotes, I can give them to you, and if you want opinions, I have lots of those to give out as well.

Primarily, Scottzar's assertion is the following:

Ergo, his attacks on CF were largely unsubstantiated, and considering CF was scum, this implies either blind flailing luck or knowing something he shouldn't. Skakerag is either a cop or a scum, or inexperienced, and the third of these is impossible.

I go on to point out that Shakerag's attacks on Captain Ford were, in fact, substantiated, so it's therefore not entirely coincidence that Shakerag's vote managed to find its way to Captain Ford who happened to be scum.

Scottzar's points to support his assertion are that 1) Shakerag voted Captain Ford for a perfectly logical town move, 2) Shakerag avoided the doctor mislynch on Day 1, 3) Shakerag accidentally bussed his partner at the end of Day 2. In order,

1) As I point out in my most recent post, Shakerag had good reason for voting Captain Ford at the time Scottzar brings up (follow the relevant quotes in my post).
2) Shakerag, even if he were scum, could not have known that ShoesandHats was the Doctor. Shakerag avoiding a vote near the end of Day 1 is a valid point, however, I object to Scottzar using ShoesandHats' role against Shakerag since that's something he could not know, town or scum.
3) Most votes past the RVS, and in particular, votes near the end of days like Shakerag's was tend to be for the lynch. If it's entirely in a player's power to avoid a bus, as it was in Shakerag's case, usually they will (except in edge cases that aren't worth discussing in a Beginner's Mafia; just know that they exist).

Further, Scottzar also read Shakerag as town up until I asked him about it, at which point he immediately changed his mind. The timing isn't damning on its own, but is certainly odd, and contributes along with his bad case on Shakerag to my opinion that Scottzar is probably scum.

Jim: Is there anything on previous days to reinforce your case on Scottzar?

No, most of my case is limited to today.

For additional minor material, there's that Scottzar was miffed that one of his suspects flipped town, which I don't quite understand. At the time it made me think he was mad that he couldn't look like he was scumhunting since all the people he suspected died.

There's also this:

I'll be honest, and say that in retrospect, Captain Ford was scummier than I thought, but I still would have Mr.Zero was more likely to be scum before CF flipped.

Which sounds really, really hollow. "Oh, yeah, guys, the guy who was scum that I didn't have much to say about was totally scummy, yuh huh."

[Reverie]

Scottzar:

What's your opinion on Jim?
What's your opinion on Shakerag?
What's your opinion on the interactions between the two?

From my perspective, Jim's playstyle in this game looked tired and unlike how he usually plays. He did mention his lack of strong reads here:

Flandre, can you speak to why your predecessor used his inexperience as a shield when he really shouldn't have? Because at the time I'm writing this he would have been my top suspect (in a field of weak suspects) had he not been replaced.

...so I can see where that might play a part in a general lack of Jim-induced bloodshed (as well as the fact that he has been really busy). Besides lurking a little, he has played acceptably and I maintain a weak might-be-town read on him at the moment.

My read on Shakerag is a bit obtuse, but a little more conclusive. After looking through his actions on D1 and Ford's bandwagoning on D2, Shakerag is likely town . Although he did not vote at the end of D1, he did dismiss the target with the highest lynch-potential by writing off Mr.Zero as newtown.
Either:
a.) Shakerag is scum and needlessly complicated his options by siding with Mr. Zero, or
b.) He honestly believed that Mr. Zero was newtown.
To top things off, Ford actually decided it was in his best interests to agree, jumping on an inconspicuous bandwagon in an effort to appeal to Shakerag (which would only have made sense if Shakerag were town).

As for the interactions between Shakerag and Jim, there is not much to pick at--I don't really even see them as opposing each other.

MrCelt:

Flandre: Asides from myself, who's your fos?

No one, if it pleases you to know. I am inclined to believe that Jim has a good point with Scottzar's suspect opinion change, but no active fingers are being pointed. Well...besides at yourself, that is.  Is being my main object of attention uncomfortable for you?

I'm not sure what you meant on advantage.

I want you to elaborate on 'advantage' as used in the following:

Shakerag was voted by Captain, who flipped mafia. Seems fairly clear, Groovester on the other hand does not have this advantage on their side.

Shakerag:

Flandre, MrCelt: What's your take on why Jim's voting Scottzar?

Scottzar switched between two opposing viewpoints (aka jackrabbiting, please tell me if I am wrong). I see the vote as one part scum-tell declaration, and one part pressure, and I can't see if there is anything more to it than that. I am definitely interested in how he answers, but otherwise I'm not sure if you are seeing something that I'm not. Why do you ask?

[MrCelt]

MrCelt:

Flandre: Asides from myself, who's your fos?

No one, if it pleases you to know. I am inclined to believe that Jim has a good point with Scottzar's suspect opinion change, but no active fingers are being pointed. Well...besides at yourself, that is.  Is being my main object of attention uncomfortable for you?

I'm not sure what you meant on advantage.

I want you to elaborate on 'advantage' as used in the following:

Shakerag was voted by Captain, who flipped mafia. Seems fairly clear, Groovester on the other hand does not have this advantage on their side.

Advantage: Shakerag has something on his side that Jim does not, so If it came down to it on a lynch between the two then that'd be taken into account- However, Jim and shakerag are no longer arguing, and the attention is currently on Scottzar.

Being in your spotlight does not phase me - I asked this almost as a follow up to this, and I felt a little obliged to ask you a question.

MrCelt: I see you as slightly scummy due to your predecessors making themselves scarce. I'm not going to build a case on you for something you can't explain, but I'll wait and see how you handle things.
Did Ford's vote on Shakerag compel you into thinking that Shakerag was town? With Jim and Shakerag in opposition (as you say), does this have any influence on your read of Jim as well?

Shakerag: Neutral (with positive leanings)--a tricky call. Your real-world commitment (or lurking, whichever the case may be), partial in-game dedication to ICing and high experience make you a hard read, but I will agree that solid material and outside influences such as Ford's vote helps a little in appraising you.
What was your impression of Kingfisher/Borno?

Scottzar: Neutral. You have been quite active, but spent most of your time hounding Mr. Zero before I replaced him. I keep getting caught up on your disappointment at not being able to interrogate Nerjin (which I am not thoroughly convinced isn't a scumtell). Your justification:

So, essentially, you're sad that your scumteam theory didn't pan out and that you didn't get the chance to really put Nerjin through the ringer, even though he was actually town.

Partially, but also because out of the three people I had a reason to believe were scum (Mr.Zero, Nerjin and ShoesandHats), 2 have flipped town and that leaves me with a completely unaccounted for second scum who I (at that time) had no leads on.

I can agree with an absence of leads, but I must ask:
Are you suspicious of anyone besides the late Mr. Zero? Who are your current scumpicks?

Jim: Slightly scummy. You are an experienced player and an IC, like Shakerag, so it's hard for me to get a decent read on you. It seems a little outside of the norm for you to withhold your vote, though, so that has some influence.
You did say earlier that Mr. Zero was your premier suspect in a pool of weak suspects. Do you have any suspicions other than with Mr. Zero and I? On another note, can it be a wise approach to town-hunt rather than scumhunt (ie. looking for town-tells and deducing scum through deduction) in difficult games such as these?