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Author Topic: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?  (Read 39034 times)

kaijyuu

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #90 on: August 29, 2012, 10:44:34 pm »

Re: the super speed bullet thing.


Depending on the distance away, the target would be able to see it quite a ways off and intercept with their own (probably another, equal mass object going the same speed, as that's about the only thing that COULD stop it). A .9c bullet traveling 1000 light years would be visible 100 light years away.

I could see such things being used in planetary warfare, but a vigilant target could avoid anything you throw at them from long distance.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #91 on: August 29, 2012, 10:48:37 pm »

1.  Who says?  Humans are, for the most part, loath to hurt each other, but have no qualms about killing members of other species, even highly intelligent ones (Dolphins would be a good example).  Harmony within a civilization doesn't necessarily translate to friendliness toward other species, especially when they're an existential threat
Except that there are lots of people now who do have qualms against killing Dolphins, higher primates, Elephants, and such. The reason for this is that we've come to understand signs of intelligence from them. An alien race's technology would demonstrate from the start that they have intellect comparable to ours. At the very least, I cannot see Humanity wiping out another species we know to be intelligent as we are "just in case".
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2.  Main problem is it's impossible to track.  If you see it ten light years away at .9c it's actually one light year away, and by the time you've figured out where it should be it's somewhere else.  Could a computer do the right math to catch it?
Computers can comprehend things quicker than people can. It would have more time to finish creating a counter to such an attack because its perception of reality could well be near light-speed itself. To an advanced enough computer an approaching relativistic kill weapon would appear to be moving fairly slowly. We're talking about centuries of progress in the field that can't really be well speculated upon well.
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I don't really see any reason that an advanced race must be friendly toward other races.  Even if they are, the big thing:  If you're wrong, you're extinct.
A race that would be genocidally unfriendly towards other races would almost certainly have turned upon itself in some way before that point in time. It could be considered a version of the Great Filter.
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Knowing what you know about humans, would you bet the survival of your entire species on a mysterious alien race being friendly?
Knowing what you know about humans, would you bet the survival of our entire species on none of us being so crazy that we'd launch relativistic weapons on our own worlds? The internal threat is larger than the external one, and we can't exactly wipe ourselves out to ensure our safety.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 10:51:29 pm by MetalSlimeHunt »
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Hanslanda

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #92 on: August 29, 2012, 10:54:03 pm »

And MSH just blew my damn mind with his last point.
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Knowing what you know about humans, would you bet the survival of your entire species on a mysterious alien race being friendly?
Knowing what you know about humans, would you bet the survival of our entire species on none of us being so crazy that we'd launch relativistic weapons on our own worlds? The internal threat is larger than the external one, and we can't exactly wipe ourselves out to ensure our safety.


Damn. Just... Damn. :/
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Karnewarrior

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #93 on: August 29, 2012, 11:41:23 pm »

Let's look the other direction: Humans come into contact with alien beings.

For ease on the mind, I'll make the aliens relatively humanoid. Let's say they have to arms, two legs, one head, two eyes, so on and so forth. They're in largely different proportions though. The alien head is large compared to their body, as their brain doesn't fold as much. Their gut is also long and they have higher blood pressure since they come from a high-gravity environment and their brains are so abnormaly large. They also come from a planet high in Chlorine, so though they still breathe Oxygen, they need Chlorine for some metabolic processes and can't really share food with humans. This also means we don't have to deal with bacteria transferral for a little while, which is good for our relations.

Let's also say that the Kirk method won't work. They lay eggs. While it's almost a certainty someone will develop or already has a fetish for that, randomly abducting and sleeping with the aliens isn't an option. They also pupate, and their larval form is maggot-like, turning people off a little.

Since we meet the aliens, we likely afre colonizing the planet. Let's say the alien life (Call them Xax) have spread across one landmass but a lack of a landbridge means that the "America" of their planet is devoid of Xax. We happen to land in "Eurasia", and we have just enough time to begin a small operations on the planets surface before we realize that we have a sapient life-form nearby.

Spoiler: Phase one: contact (click to show/hide)



tl;dr : The aliens almost cause a civil war/ do cause a civil war but eventually are integrated fully into society. Some amount of segregation would be completely natural. Even discouting physical differences, there'd still be a culture gap and people are just happier around people they're like. This can be seen today in schools. Generally, the races will separate themselves without any prodding. There is a significant amount of drift, but usually a table of children will be 90% one race or culture. This will probably happen just as naturally but more pronounced with the aliens. After we get over our inital fetish for them, they'll be too different. and most of the humans will have mostly human friends and the aliens mostly alien friends. I think that most of The world has reached Phase three with Blacks (for example), as an example of a inter-species First Contact. For aliens I think it'll be similar but more pronounced. Something to note is that a few things can be surmised:

  >The propogation of a species means that the death of a "important being" will be seen as a murder. For humans, any countryman is a Important Being. For a hypothetical race of hiveminds, such as OSC's Formics, the Important Being would be a Queen, or perhaps several hundred drones.
  >Violence will be understood. It may be seen as sexual, if the alien is odd or starfish-like, but it will probably be seen similar to how we see it. It will, after all, mark the end of one being, likey an Important Being, and the chances of a alien reproducing by dismemberment is unlikely simply by volume of all other means of reproduction.
  >Viruses will have difficulty transferring over, due to their close relationship with the cells they effect. Bacteria, on the other hand, don't need the biology to be similar, but only to have a certain chemical for them to eat, and for their waste to be toxic to the host. This means a bacterial infection will be far more likely than a viral one, although it may not be possible either way depending on how different they are from us.
  >If the species breathes an atmosphere entirely different from ours, integration will be much more difficult for obvious reasons. It is possible though; look to the Grunts from Halo as a effective way of integrating Methane breathers into a oxygen-breather environment
  >The biggest issue won't be biological in nature. This may sound odd to you, but regardless of how many tentacle dicks it uses to eat it's food of jellied squirrel, the biggest issue will be the culture that evolves around it. Culture is far more differentiated from environment and it'll be much harder to guess what offends them and what doesn't. Imagine if the first westerner to meet with Japan walked into a house with his shoes on, rummaged through the fridge, and littered plastic down through the driveway. That would be far more likely to spark hatred than "he's so pale and his eyes are huge".
  >Exercises like this one are just that; exercises. They can no more prepare us for meeting an alien race than running around the block can prepare you for a five-mile hike. It'll be better if we do do it, but we can't expect it to guide us completely.
  >Finally, we have experience now with integration, and hopefuly the whole process of going from xenophobia to xenophilia and to the middle road won't take more than a few generations. In this case, the aliens will be reactive, and our moves will determine theirs. This is the only thing we can be sure of. Period.
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Criptfeind

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #94 on: August 30, 2012, 05:20:31 am »

Yes. It's the only way to win the Dilemma. Check my previous post. I'd rather face annihilation and risk winning cooperation, then go for assured destruction on one side or the other.

Actually no. It is not the same thing. Because whomever shoots first simply wins. It's not the prisoners dilemma because in that one both parties get a choice. Take a look at the little chart they have on that page. Only now put in that if one betrays the other is forced to stay silent. Then come back and say what the logical answer is.

Except that there are lots of people now who do have qualms against killing Dolphins, higher primates, Elephants, and such. The reason for this is that we've come to understand signs of intelligence from them.

I'm not sure if that is really that relevant, since they pose no threat to us. A alien race that can wipe us out with no recourse? Not the same. And I think that we clearly could wipe them out, simply depending on who actually is in charge of it? If you were in charge? I guess not. If I was? Yeah. I might very well kill them.

A race that would be genocidally unfriendly towards other races would almost certainly have turned upon itself in some way before that point in time. It could be considered a version of the Great Filter.

Why is this? Other=!Self. After all. Even if you were to kill me, for the most part I would still survive in you. If a alien kills me? Not so much. In the end I would not be willing to go for a mutually assured destruction with you, because if the only choice is between me dying and both of us dying... At least you are basically me with miniscule changes. Does this make sense? It is pretty damn late here, but do you get my idea?


we can't exactly wipe ourselves out to ensure our safety.

This part seems not relevant to the conversation. We can't wipe ourselves out to protect ourselves. But we can wipe others out.
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Karnewarrior

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #95 on: August 30, 2012, 01:14:42 pm »

Any weapon is blockable, but the defensive technique often comes after the offensive technique. People thought bullets were unstoppable, until Kevlar.

Thus, we coat the earth in kevlar and become immortal.  :P
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Criptfeind

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #96 on: August 30, 2012, 01:32:18 pm »

Unless there is a upper limit to technology, in which case it would be possible that there is something that is unblock able.
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RedKing

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #97 on: August 30, 2012, 01:51:04 pm »

Any weapon is blockable, but the defensive technique often comes after the offensive technique. People thought bullets were unstoppable, until Kevlar.

Thus, we coat the earth in kevlar and become immortal.  :P
Yes, but sometimes defensive techniques leap first (think trench warfare and emplaced machine-guns) and these tend to be the bloodiest conflicts. So we'd have two "kevlar-coated" planets lobbing a slew of relativistic kill vehicles at each other, and having them ricochet off and kill half the damn galaxy in the process.
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Eagleon

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #98 on: August 30, 2012, 03:05:40 pm »

Re: the super speed bullet thing.


Depending on the distance away, the target would be able to see it quite a ways off and intercept with their own (probably another, equal mass object going the same speed, as that's about the only thing that COULD stop it). A .9c bullet traveling 1000 light years would be visible 100 light years away.

I could see such things being used in planetary warfare, but a vigilant target could avoid anything you throw at them from long distance.
I don't know if he was the first one with the idea, but KS Robinson's new book gives a rather terrifying new possibility - a swarm of bullets, too small to detect from a distance, and spread out in a cloud, but converging on the same point to deliver the same or almost the same amount of energy as a much larger one. Granted it'd be even tougher to figure out the trajectories, since they all have to hit at the same time, but with quantum computers, enough projectiles, and a little bit of on-board guidance it might just be possible across systems. Pretty much the only way to defend against something like this is to have a massive sensor-net with a comprehensive laser defense system, and that's assuming they aren't shielded enough that you can detect them in time for the hit. Otherwise your best bet is to move the target.
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MonkeyHead

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #99 on: August 30, 2012, 03:14:52 pm »

Thats not too dissimilar to how Iain Banks dealt with relatavistic combat in "The Algebraist". A countermeasure to ships travelling at 99% of c was simply to spead small particulate matter in thier course path - at such high speeds if the particulate matter was spread over a large enough area they couldnt avoid it, probably wouldnt detect it if the matter particles were small enough and not too densly packed, and at such high speeds would shred ships with ease. So, if we detect some kind of massivly blue shifted EM radiation indiciating some kind of invasive fleet inbound on Sol, a number of cheap, disposable and simple robotic spacecraft scattering steel ball bearings could quite easily provide some kind of low tech force multiplier to thin out thier numbers.
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kaijyuu

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #100 on: August 30, 2012, 03:19:19 pm »

I'm still doubtful of any warfare actually happening between star systems, given the distance and length of travel. Communication taking so long means any grudges are going to be forgotten by the time the message reaches the other system. And even if you do send an army for war, by the time your fleet arrives, 10 years have past, and the war's probably over or forgotten about (and that's for very close star systems!).

Interplanetary is much more likely, along with wars between colony ships and the system they're trying to colonize. Grudges between these factions seem plausible. But star systems are almost certainly going to be nearly autonomous and uncaring about those around them.

Unless we invent FTL travel/communication, of course.
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For, in order that men should resist injustice, something more is necessary than that they should think injustice unpleasant. They must think injustice absurd; above all, they must think it startling. They must retain the violence of a virgin astonishment. When the pessimist looks at any infamy, it is to him, after all, only a repetition of the infamy of existence. But the optimist sees injustice as something discordant and unexpected, and it stings him into action.

MonkeyHead

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #101 on: August 30, 2012, 03:24:25 pm »

I'm still doubtful of any warfare actually happening between star systems, given the distance and length of travel. Communication taking so long means any grudges are going to be forgotten by the time the message reaches the other system. And even if you do send an army for war, by the time your fleet arrives, 10 years have past, and the war's probably over or forgotten about (and that's for very close star systems!).

Interplanetary is much more likely, along with wars between colony ships and the system they're trying to colonize. Grudges between these factions seem plausible. But star systems are almost certainly going to be nearly autonomous and uncaring about those around them.

Unless we invent FTL travel/communication, of course.

Joe Haldain's "The Forever War" exploes this quite well. With relativity taken into account, a 18 month tour of duty takes years for those not whizzing around space at 99% of c. What was cutting edge when they left is crude when they return, most noticably weaponary, tactics used by the enemy, and the nature of human society. Well worth a read.
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Karnewarrior

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #102 on: August 30, 2012, 03:27:16 pm »

Yeah, war between systems without FTL is unlikely to be a thing. But FTL has been big in the minds of man for quite a while now, and I doubt it'll be impossible by 3000C.E, possibly before then.

But our first extra solar colony WILL happen without FTL. And since it's liable to be Alpha Centauri (computer models have suggested it's less likely for a habitable planet to have not formed there) communications will take 8+ years for a response, meaning it'll be largely autonomous. I'm thinking a bigger, possibly slightly more thought out Age of Colonization.
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Eagleon

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #103 on: August 30, 2012, 03:40:06 pm »

I don't think armies will ever grow past civil 'defense' purposes. On the other hand you have all kinds of other ways to wipe out another system's species without ever landing so much as a probe there. In particular biological, nanotechnology, and relativistic weapons are the biggest existential threat from other species, and for other species. MAD all around, only this time negotiations take years, and you have no idea if the 'enemy' is brewing up something to destroy you in the mean time. Add in the fanatical civilian factor in a culture with autonomous manufacturing (basically any culture that's moved out into their own system) and things look all the more grim.
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10ebbor10

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Re: What has, and would happen, realistically, at first contact?
« Reply #104 on: August 30, 2012, 03:44:37 pm »

Yeah, war between systems without FTL is unlikely to be a thing. But FTL has been big in the minds of man for quite a while now, and I doubt it'll be impossible by 3000C.E, possibly before then.

But our first extra solar colony WILL happen without FTL. And since it's liable to be Alpha Centauri (computer models have suggested it's less likely for a habitable planet to have not formed there) communications will take 8+ years for a response, meaning it'll be largely autonomous. I'm thinking a bigger, possibly slightly more thought out Age of Colonization.
Unless, you know, it really is impossible.

FTL communications already exist. In some lab in China they succesfully encoded and sent information using quantum mechanics(ie instantanious)

Also, can I see a link for the habitable centauri thing . Alpha centauri is a binary star system, which are inherently instable, so it would suprise me to see habitable planets there.(Depending on what you consider habitable of course.)

I don't think armies will ever grow past civil 'defense' purposes. On the other hand you have all kinds of other ways to wipe out another system's species without ever landing so much as a probe there. In particular biological, nanotechnology, and relativistic weapons are the biggest existential threat from other species, and for other species. MAD all around, only this time negotiations take years, and you have no idea if the 'enemy' is brewing up something to destroy you in the mean time. Add in the fanatical civilian factor in a culture with autonomous manufacturing (basically any culture that's moved out into their own system) and things look all the more grim.
Bioweapons seem less likely when you don't know each others biology, and nanoweapons might suffer similair problems.
Or you know, maybe they launched already. You can't see a laser/ radiation weapon coming.
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