Yeah, you need commanders for all the 0 rolls you'll always be getting. That's the neat part of the dice system. No reliability. So you rely on insta-wipe battles. That's the part that irks me so badly about EU4. The combat is not consistent. You can have the best military across the board and still be losing 1k troops a day in every shock phase because the AI has a +1 advantage in the random number roll that combat consists of.
I think you've got a lot of complaints that aren't related (or at least in the way you think they are) that are more the result of playing the game too much (and noticing minor quibbles) than the game itself being terrible. If I were to make the mistake of summarizing them, it'd be that combat is simplistic because numerical superiority is always the best, dice rolls make the game too random to bother with anything but instant wipes, the AI gets undisclosed bonuses to combat and dice rolls, and that fighting battles results in too many casualties.
What I would recommend doing is loading up the vanilla game from the normal 1444 or whatever start, and play as France. You'll be at war with England, they'll have 9 regiments daydreaming in Normandy while a 30 regiment doomstack led by your pick of excellent general sits right next to them. Load this up several times, and share the results of the battles.
Now do it with COMBAT_DICE_SIDE set to 1. No insta-wipe.
If France gets a really minor advantage, like +1 to fire and +2 to shock in the first few phases, France totally annihilates that army. With no influence from dice rolls, they fight it out until England runs out of morale and retreats.
You don't need to get instant wipes to avoid bad dicerolls, you get them in the first place because of good ones. You seem to be saying that you'd rather not have insta-wipes, since it makes things boring, but you feel forced to because dicerolls make the rest of the game unfair. So, play it without dice rolls. See how fun it is.
(it's not)This is the Dwarf Fortress forum for god's sake. If you think DF is too easy when you just seal yourself off and grow all the food you'll ever need, do something else. If you think something would be better tweaked, mod it yourself. The same applies with EUIV. So, find a balance you like with the combat, with the phase length, dice range, retreat limits, and so on. Don't get me wrong, there are tons of core problems with EUIV, but what you're mentioning has more to do with the playstyle you settled in being boring than the game being bad. It's the worst kind of complaining. You have the tools! You've even quoted defines.lua!
I dunno, I feel like this is going to be one of those aggressively toned posts I regret later, but I'm really not trying to be antagonistic. I just think it's an argument that is misguided, is all.
Edit:
If I were to offer constructive advice, it'd be to increase OVERRUN_FACTOR_CANNOT_LEAVE to something like 4 (you were incorrect in quoting OVERRUN_FACTOR, that's what determines out of combat surrenders), reduce COMBAT_DICE_SIDE to 6-8, and tweak CANNOT_RETREAT_DAYS and DAYS_PER_PHASE to your liking. Increasing OVERRUN_FACTOR_CANNOT_LEAVE will make wipes impossible until that ratio is met, and CANNOT_RETREAT_DAYS will give you more or fewer opportunities to hit it. I'd also lower SHATTERED_RETREAT_SPEED_MODIFIER, since you'll be chasing down more retreating armies.