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[10ebbor10]

And the Chinese as the only ones to reach Mars? Are you kidding me? Not NASA, not ESA, not RFSA, but CNSA? Amongst the major national space programs, I'd put China in last place. They may have done an independent manned launch, but that doesn't mean they're better. Space needs to be a cooperative venture, and CNSA is not very cooperative compared to the others. Not to mention their total mission count is fairly low.

Not the only ones. Just the only real contenders amongst the major space programs. The CNSA is fairly cooperative, with several missions done jointly with both the ESA and the RFSA. The major thing is that they're one of the few places where the space program still has massive political support.

NASA has suffered severe funding cuts, but they're not out of the game by any means. Soon, when people start talking about walking on Mars in more than theoretical terms, they will have public support that will make the Apollo program look meager in comparison and cause politicians across the entire political spectrum to drool with envy at whomever holds the White House when it happens. At worst, NASA is going to get second place for walking on Mars.

There's no real enthousiasm for space exploration anymore, and I'm afraid this will not change in the future. There are several projects going on at the moment, and they don't get the support you'd expect. You're not getting that kind of support before the mission launches, or someone does a JFK speech. Political will has to come before the public opinion will change.

Speculating on permanent colonies is probably a bit too far in the future for accurate predictions.

Actually, a permant colony might happen sooner than land and return flight. It is cheaper if you don't plan for a return flight, after all.

My bet is on a NASA/ESA cooperative mission within 40 years. If the world as we know it hasn't collapsed by then.

The ESA is a bit wary of doing joint missions with NASA for the moment. Considering several of the last major co-op planned projects where cancelled due to budget issues with NASA, and because they're currently on a do it as we get the money approach. In fact, the ESA is cooperating more with the Roscosmos; and the CNSA/other new spaceprograms.

edit: Example. The Mars 500 project, aiming to simulate a flight to Mars, was a joint experiment between Roscosmos, the ESA and CHina.

[Bdthemag]

There's no enthusiasm for space travel at the moment because the american public doesn't really FEEL as if anything groundbreaking is happening. Generation by generation without any major NASA breakthroughs, you kind of just become used to it and it just seems less interesting. If the government suddenly announced that we have a very good possibility of sending a man to mars soon (And more importantly, the first person would be from the U.S.), I'd bet you that everyone and their mother would suddenly be very interested in space missions.

[10ebbor10]

What I said. There has to be political will to make a commitment before the public opinion will change.

[MonkeyHead]

Dont discount the commercial factor. Since the end of the Cold War space ventures have needed to have a commercial point - hence the proliferation of communication and Earth obs satellites, which have a clear commerical aspect. If getting humans on Mars would lead to a commercial opportunity, people would be crawling over each other to have a go at it. Currently there is not one - and I am at a loss as to what one could exist in the medium to long term future.

[10ebbor10]

A mars base might come in handy once Asteroid mining takes off. Then again, it will be decades before that industry is fully developed.

[Another]

A Phobos base would be more useful for supporting commercial operations in the asteroid belt.

[Dutchling]

Or just an asteroid base? How big is that base gotta be?

[MonkeyHead]

Meh, a base doesnt even have to be on anything - neatly sidestepping the bother of gravity wells if you need to move lots of stuff around (avoiding all that tedious going up and down cos of gravity).

[10ebbor10]

A Phobos base would be more useful for supporting commercial operations in the asteroid belt.

Not really. I mean, Phobos hardly qualifies as anything more than a wayward rock. A landing rocket would severly disturb it's orbit.

[Osmosis Jones]

For the asteroid belt (which you probably wouldn't really mine anyway, given how sparse it really is), surely Ceres or Vesta would be the best locations?


EDIT: A hurr durr.

[Virex]

For the asteroid belt (which you probably wouldn't really mine anyway, given how sparse it really is), surely Ceres or Vesta would be the best locations?

Any decently sized asteroid is going to have more raw materials then a current-generation mine could mine in a life time. We would need to make some serious improvements in extraction and refining technology before the size of the asteroid becomes a concern. Ease of getting the material to Earth (or wherever else it's needed) is probably going to be a greater concern.

[Dutchling]

Yeah, you'd probably want something as small as possible to save on fuel.

[10ebbor10]

Depends.

Decent asteroids are few and far between, seeing that more than 70% of the total mass of the asteroid belt is accumulated in the ten largest objects.

[Scoops Novel]

Go to Europa you fools! YOU FOOLS!

Seriously, why haven't we gone there yet? The possible medical advances even provide the commercial aspect.

[10ebbor10]

It's freezing cold, bloody far away, and not all that interesting for human habitation.

The ESA is sending a probe there soonish. Only a few flybys though, because the planned NASA cooperation was cancelled.