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[TheMastermind]

The only thing i ever kickstarted, thats becouse this game remainds me the game i want to make.

Can't wait to play this game when it will be finished.

BTW, if dwarf fortress was doing kickstarter i would put my money too, and if its for a cause like better graphics and UI there's no question.

[Cthulhu]

I'll probably put a 15 in there at some point.

I'm wondering about the title screen candles.  What does that mean?  Is it just a different colored candle on your title screen?

Aside from the dev meetings and cruise, it kind of feels like there's a bit of diminishing returns as you get higher up, aside from the newly added tier which I'll venture a guess was to help rectify same.

[mendonca]

Here is the Kicktraq chart for Cult, to date.



I'm going to liken it to Xenonauts, a game which received a huge boost at the start, and then limited interest from then on in, probably due to existing awareness / willingness of the people who would actually fund this being high at the start. I imagine this is the case here - the 'roguelike' community seems pretty tight and niche.

On this magical, statistical, imaginary basis it is not a ridiculous notion that this project could get funded to the $10k stretch goal.

My fingers are crossed, anyway!

[burningpet]

I believe that it will see another smaller spike when he release the "building" tech demo.

Also, i am not too sure everyone who sees this realize there is actually already the world generating one.

[Lord Dullard]

Well, the older tech demo is pretty dated, so it's just as well.

I'm really a bit skeptical of that trajectory, but we'll see what happens. Hopefully there will be another spike after this coming tech demo, since there are a couple of popular YouTubers who want to play around with it.

[Neonivek]

Yeah it can really only keep slowing down. Though I am glad that so far my non-bet is currently going my way.

[Trollheiming]

Kicktraq trending is so poorly coded. It uses a linear extrapolation, probably least-squares approximation, where anticipating an exponential curve decaying to steady-state would be far more appropriate. Rarely is anything in the real world linear.

I'd suppose that this project funds with $5500 or $6000.

[mendonca]

Kicktraq is not linear by design, it uses historical information of previous kickstarters to generate the predictions. Unfortunately all those previous predictions, at present, are board games (reflecting the site owners initial motivation for setting this up). Most other things go a bit askew with these predictions, obviously, and the site owner accepts this. That's also why I tried to pull another project for reference and ignored the kicktraq in everything but the given graph.

Of course this statistical analysis is flawed beyond comprehension, but It is fun to guess what will happen. My expectations have been heavily revised from pre-kickstarter blues where I thought it would struggle. I hope for a steady trickle throughout the rest of the time left, and there are a bunch of people left in the world to potentially fund this.

We can only sit back and watch what unfolds, though.

[Trollheiming]

Actually, the trending value appears to be just the current amount plus the daily average times the days left.

Trending = Pledges + Pledges*(Days Left)/(Days Passed)

Not terribly informative for anything but linear curves, which are pretty rare. One thing about many kickstarter curves is that there's often a small upswing toward the end, though. That's probable here also.

[mendonca]

Ah, sorry, my mistake. It looks like he used to weight it towards boardgame data, but he's removed it now. Fair enough.

[Neonivek]

Kicktraq is just supposed to be interesting more then it is supposed to be accurate.

I highly HIGHLY doubt we will see a 25k cap... In fact it is looking unlikely we will even get to 10k.

[Jacob/Lee]

Damn, and I just spent all my money today.


Anyway, that's an interesting idea. People donate and in return they get to be a named NPC that's randomly generated at some point in the game, can't say I've ever heard of that. Best of luck to you and your project, I'll try to get some money your way when I can.

[Warmist]

tried registering with amazon to pay into kickstarted, and it says "there was an error, try again" WTF? can it be more exact? Also why no paypal...

Nevermind - apparently address information must be in latin letters

[Neonivek]

Damn, and I just spent all my money today.


Anyway, that's an interesting idea. People donate and in return they get to be a named NPC that's randomly generated at some point in the game, can't say I've ever heard of that. Best of luck to you and your project, I'll try to get some money your way when I can.

Actually to me it is a secretly ingenius idea (but I am sure unintentionally so) because as you know... Everyone who creates a NPC or town has to say what kind of personality and features they have.

It is like combing the fanbase for features without outright asking for it

[Briggsy16]

People do realise that the money goes out when the KS is over don't they? In July.

$43 to go!