Political gain for the ruling coalitionFollowing spoilers from the above article and portions bold for significance:
"The top of the government has gone into lockdown," one official said. "Nobody is saying anything publicly. That in itself tells you a lot about where things stand."
Last week Netanyahu pulled off a spectacular political surprise, creating a coalition of national unity and delaying elections which everyone believed were inevitable. The maneuver also led to speculation that the Israeli leader wanted a broad, strong government to lead a military campaign.
Also if I remember correctly the compromise that led to the coalition allows ultra Orthodox Jewish people to be exempt from the otherwise mandatory national draft. After all, just because you are a driving force for war doesn't mean your sons ought to fight it apparently. There are people you don't agree with and political opposition you can force to fight by making laws such as this one.
Top officials explain the new coalition on purely domestic grounds, saying it was needed to tackle the thorny and divisive issue of pressing Orthodox Jews into military service - in other words, that its formation has much more to do with the agenda inside Israel than abroad.
"I think they've gone into lockdown mode now," the senior Western diplomat said. "Whatever happens next, whatever they decide, we will not find out until it happens."
There are indeed those who see in Israeli posturing over Iran only bluff intended to press world powers into harsher sanctions and avoid war. Some military experts openly doubt how much damage Israel could inflict. The risk of a fiasco is big.
Remember, fighting Iran = fighting Russia in their proxy as far as foreign policy goes. To assume that Russia wouldn't at the very least ship arms to Iran when they do so now is naive; especially with their willingness to ship arms to countries failing to put down popular protests on their own. To underestimate the influence of Gazprom profits on Russian foreign policy is foolish.
Speaking of energy concerns the following spoiler is:
From inforwarsIran can be characterized as a geo-strategic pivot. The geo-political equation in Eurasia very much hinges on the structure of Iran’s political alliances. Were Iran to become an ally of the United States, this would seriously hamper or even destabilize Russia and China. This also pertains to Iran’s ethno-cultural, linguistic, economic, religious, and geo-political links to the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Moreover, were the structure of political alliances to shift in favor of the U.S., Iran could also become the greatest conduit for U.S. influence and expansion in the Caucasus and Central Asia. This has to do with the fact that Iran is the gateway to Russia’s soft southern underbelly (or “Near Abroad”) in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
In such a scenario, Russia as an energy corridor would be weakened as Washington would “unlock” Iran’s potential as a primary energy corridor for the Caspian Sea Basin, implying de facto U.S. geopolitical control over Iranian pipeline routes. In this regard, part of Russia’s success as an energy transit route has been due to U.S. efforts to weaken Iran by preventing energy from transiting through Iranian territory.
If Iran were to “change camps” and enter the U.S. sphere of influence, China’s economy and national security would also be held hostage on two counts. Chinese energy security would be threatened directly because Iranian energy reserves would no longer be secure and would be subject to U.S. geo-political interests. Additionally, Central Asia could also re-orient its orbit should Washington open a direct and enforced conduit from the open seas via Iran.
Thus, both Russia and China want a strategic alliance with Iran as a means of screening them from the geo-political encroachment of the United States. “Fortress Eurasia” would be left exposed without Iran. This is why neither Russia nor China could ever accept a war against Iran. Should Washington transform Iran into a client then Russia and China would be under threat.
A question might be why now? Here is the answer:
"I think they have made a decision to attack," said one senior Israeli figure with close ties to the leadership. "It is going to happen. The window of opportunity is before the U.S. presidential election in November. This way they will bounce the Americans into supporting them."
Thanks, loyal patriots of AIPAC!
Anyone remember this?
Iran 'Green' Revolution attemp You know, that thing that was ignored by seemingly every politician that mattered, that if supported would have prevented this. Too bad politicians thought they could take personal advantage if they ignored it. I guess it would be unfair to the Israelis to risk denying their ability to threaten America with the possibility of world war in order to influence an American Presidential election, obtain foreign aid and if the Yankees are gullible enough maybe do a little conquering and occupation of the Israeli's very own (if Russia is cowed away from providing open military support and instead decides to only make the internationally standard profit from selling war material to both sides.)
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Topic: The possibility of a new war for everyone (Read 6050 times)