Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Hapah]

So....Jack lynch, then? If we can't get an extend, we can at least be relatively sure the game goes into another day.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Alternatively, I'm 100% certain that scum's on the chopping block. (hint hint)

Certain? How are you 100% certain? Certainty in this game only happens when you already know who is the scum, because your PM said so. Everyone else is making the best deductions and guesses they can, but certainty doesn't happen until the flip. You are betting the game at LYLO on a certainty you couldn't have if you were town...

So yeah, you're scum.

I have already explained my logic. Look early today, about where you were suggesting bastard mechanics in place of Tiruin having a living scumbuddy. If you're too lazy to do that: I know my alignment, Hapah and Shakerag are confirmed not-Tiruin-buddies, and scum would never use a scroll of danger if there wasn't a "safe" scum to stay alive, meaning that Jack can't be Tiruin's only buddy.

Although, I do have a couple of questions I want answered. One, why would you do the above (bastard mechanics)?

And two, Mod, if a player used a Scroll of Ill Will, would the knowledge of the effect applied be implicit (hints) or explicit (item had xx effect)?

I know you're scum, Book. The tricky bit is proving it to enough people to get you lynched. But I will admit, I am getting angry at you and your still-aliveness, and that has been affecting my decisions. Withdraw opposition to extension, request limited (24 hour) extension if possible.

Another post will follow shortly, restating my case on you (as it appears to have fallen by the wayside in your torrent of speculative bullshit).

[Urist Imiknorris]

My case against Book:
0. Process of elimination told me he is scum - that's why I started looking at him closer in the first place.

1. Immediately upon entering the game, Book accuses Native of being scum, and begins focusing on third parties. He claims using a scroll of ill will on Native the previous night, and that he did not know what effect was applied, assuming a block and using that to explain the lack of a mafiakill. After Toaster stated that the effect would be known Book claims to have looked back and had the hints to the scroll's effect pointed out to him. This may or may not be complete BS depending on Toaster's answer to my current question.

2. After Native is lynched and flips town, Book continues to prioritize third parties instead of Tiruin's buddy/ies:

I'm still pretty sure Hapah and Shake can't be Tiruin's scumbuddy

My top picks at the moment are Jack and Shakerag

3. Book suggests two possible explanations for Tiruin not having a living scumbuddy:

Is it possible Tiruin didn't have a buddy, and there's a whole mess of third parties?

Could Native have been a death anti-miller?

Note that these are mechanics that have no place outside of a bastard game, and he damn well should know that. And Book, why wouldn't you have just asked the mod about these scenarios? (This is a pretty goddamn powerful indicator to me - "I can't be scum, maybe there are bastard mechanics at work!")

4. He begins drowning the thread in speculation (the majority of which ends up refuted or nearly so) as to the nature of Jack's and my interactions, putting to a near-halt any legitimate scumhunting (also, has anyone heard of the "Information Instead of Analysis" tell? This point right here.).
Book, this is why I'm certain you're scum. Hopefully Toaster's answer will conclusively prove that and you'll just shut up and die already.

[Bookthras]

scum would never use a scroll of danger if there wasn't a "safe" scum to stay alive, meaning that Jack can't be Tiruin's only buddy.

We only have Jack's word about the scroll of danger. Why do you take it as certain and true? Especially after saying earlier that he may be scum? Why do you ask us to do the same? This implicit, intrinsic and unexplained faith in the truth of his words and actions is what I find most scummy about your interactions with him.

Plus we only have your word about the protection, which once again you ask us to take on faith. If you two are buddies, the whole "was protected, was scroll of danger, was triggered" is one big red herring.

Withdraw opposition to extension, request limited (24 hour) extension if possible.

So, you took an action that made you look scummy, and when challenged you took it back. Yeah, not scummy at all.


PPE: Answer to your other post later.

[Urist Imiknorris]

scum would never use a scroll of danger if there wasn't a "safe" scum to stay alive, meaning that Jack can't be Tiruin's only buddy.

We only have Jack's word about the scroll of danger. Why do you take it as certain and true? Especially after saying earlier that he may be scum? Why do you ask us to do the same? This implicit, intrinsic and unexplained faith in the truth of his words and actions is what I find most scummy about your interactions with him.

Plus we only have your word about the protection, which once again you ask us to take on faith. If you two are buddies, the whole "was protected, was scroll of danger, was triggered" is one big red herring.

You are mistaking that for something it's not. The logic that I'm basing my "you are goddamn scum" position on is not intended to persuade - let the evidence do that. It is merely a documentation of the thought process I used to reach that conclusion, using the aspects of the game known to me (my alignment, my actions, the outcome of such, etc). It is not my case.

And we have already gone over why I trust Jack's word - You proposed three scenarios in which he could be lying. If he killed, and was redirected to himself, and I protected him, who could be fakeclaiming the redirect but you? And if someone killed him with a mafiakill, etc. but was protected, why not make the trivially easy "scroll of death because I didn't know that players didn't know if they had a brother, but I was the one who tried to kill him so he's lying" fakeclaim and score a free goddamn lynch? Also, who would be fakeclaiming it but you? And I know damn well I'm not faking the protect. This has already been explained.

Withdraw opposition to extension, request limited (24 hour) extension if possible.

So, you took an action that made you look scummy, and when challenged you took it back. Yeah, not scummy at all.

You'd be surprised how calming a walk in the woods at night is. Also, I realized that there were questions that warranted answers. One of which you missed, by the way. Why propose the existence of bastard mechanics in a non-bastard game?

[Hapah]

Good, it looks like we've got our extend. Three of five does it, yes?

I apologize for my lack of posts lately, time has been short. The weekend gives me plenty of time, though: I'll have a good post tomorrow. Will either of you be around to chat?

[Bookthras]

My case against Book:

For 0,1: Not much worth commenting. From my process of elimination, Tiruin's buddy has to be Jack and/or you. You eliminate Jack, but not really, because you trust his words, but he may be scum. Whatever. Toaster will answer about the ill will thing. I accused Native of being scum because he was the scummiest after my initial read of the game, and only dug himself deeper.

2. After Native is lynched and flips town, Book continues to prioritize third parties instead of Tiruin's buddy/ies:

I'm still pretty sure Hapah and Shake can't be Tiruin's scumbuddy

My top picks at the moment are Jack and Shakerag

I pressured Shake because he was waffling about answering questions and hedging his answers too much. Unlike you, I don't claim certainties so if I see something suspicious I must follow it up, even if it challenges previous assumptions. Shake cleaned up his act later, so I focused on the scummiest. But yes, in addition of Tiruin's buddy(ies), I thought there may be other threats out there, and it'd be irresponsible to dismiss them; I try to be thorough. The most dangerous would have been a cult, but that was pretty much ruled out by D4, so it became less important.

3. Book suggests two possible explanations for Tiruin not having a living scumbuddy:

Is it possible Tiruin didn't have a buddy, and there's a whole mess of third parties?

Could Native have been a death anti-miller?

What I said, and maintain, is that Native's flip forced us to question our assumptions, so I looked for assumptions made and listed them out (more than just those two, incidentally, such as N2 events), so they could be questioned. Once again, your insistence for taking things on faith is scummy.

Note that these are mechanics that have no place outside of a bastard game, and he damn well should know that. And Book, why wouldn't you have just asked the mod about these scenarios?

False. Death millers of different types are pretty common in BYORs, for example. It was worth asking the question. Regarding the one-man-scum thing, yeah, that'd be pretty weird, but again, worth asking. As earlier Roguelikes have shown, Toaster can be creative with factions, so assuming "a standard scum team plus a brother-to-a-townie" is a lazy assumption, so it must be validated/challenged.

Why didn't I immediately ask the mod? I didn't think of it; I was listing assumptions first, and in the process of discussion we'd find ways to validate or invalidate them in many ways, including asking questions to the mod. Plus, asking the players before asking the mod gives us a chance to read reactions to the questions, which could be interesting regardless of what the actual answer is (your latching to these, for example, is an interesting reaction). Scumhunting is a process, you don't need to think of all the questions right away, and you don't need to go begging the mod immediately.

Withdraw opposition to extension, request limited (24 hour) extension if possible.

So, you took an action that made you look scummy, and when challenged you took it back. Yeah, not scummy at all.

You'd be surprised how calming a walk in the woods at night is. Also, I realized that there were questions that warranted answers.

Sure, it calmed you down enough to realize how scummy your opposition seemed, so you'd better retract it right away! Otherwise people will think you're scum! Questions are good though; keep them coming. Preferably to your other possible scumpick/lynch candidate/bastion of truthfulness Jack as well. Otherwise people may think you're tunneling, or avoiding him on purpose, which are also scummy. Watch out!

The weekend gives me plenty of time, though: I'll have a good post tomorrow. Will either of you be around to chat?

Great. Yes, using the weekend after my busy week and Jack's trip was the point of the extension. Discussion is something that only scum benefits in curtailing. Yes, I should be around plenty during the weekend.

[Toaster]

Vote Count:

Jack A T:   
Bookthras:  Urist Imiknorris, Jack A T, Hapah
Shakerag:
Urist Imiknorris: Bookthras
Hapah: 

Not Voting:  Shakerag

Day 5 will last until Friday, 5/18 at 11 PM EST, ~9 1/2 hours from now.

Mod, if a player used a Scroll of Ill Will, would the knowledge of the effect applied be implicit (hints) or explicit (item had xx effect)?

It would be explained in flavor terms.  If the player asked for clarification, then it would be said explicitly.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Unlike you, I don't claim certainties

Neither do I, unless I have good reason to do so. For instance, I know the protection I cast was activated, and either Jack is being truthful about his danger scroll claim (which would have been stupid considering Tiruin's peril) or you're fakeclaiming non-aligned scum. Either way, Jack's not the only scum. Therefore, you're scum. See? Certainty with good reason.

Oh wait,

Discussion is something that only scum benefits in curtailing.

What's that about certainties?

What I said, and maintain, is that Native's flip forced us to question our assumptions, so I looked for assumptions made and listed them out (more than just those two, incidentally, such as N2 events), so they could be questioned.

Yes, question our assumptions: Native was scummy, no doubt about that. And I was also pretty sure he was scum. Questioning my assumptions is why I asked Toaster about the scroll of ill will and whether it's effect would be known to the user. One of the main points against Native, after all, was that he was targeted by a potential roleblock, visited nobody, and there was no scumkill.

Once again, your insistence for taking things on faith is scummy.

And once again, I have reasons for taking things on faith, and and your insistence on ignoring that is also scummy.

But yes, in addition of Tiruin's buddy(ies), I thought there may be other threats out there, and it'd be irresponsible to dismiss them; I try to be thorough.

Interesting, as I had the same thought, but thought it would be irresponsible to speculate on unknown threats when there was a known one running around.

False. Death millers of different types are pretty common in BYORs, for example. It was worth asking the question.

I did not know this. Care to provide an example or two?

so assuming "a standard scum team plus a brother-to-a-townie" is a lazy assumption, so it must be validated/challenged.

Are you saying I'm assuming this?

(your latching to these, for example, is an interesting reaction)

How?

Sure, it calmed you down enough to realize how scummy your opposition seemed, so you'd better retract it right away! Otherwise people will think you're scum!

Not really. I realized that opposing the extension would likely move votes away from you (and toward me, of course, but my roleflip would just confirm you as scum). I just don't want to have to go through all this for another four goddamn days.

Preferably to your other possible scumpick/lynch candidate/bastion of truthfulness Jack as well. Otherwise people may think you're tunneling, or avoiding him on purpose, which are also scummy. Watch out!

Fuck you. He might be scum, but you definitely are. Why should I deal with anyone else before you're dead?

Hapah: I'll be around for most of the foreseeable future. (visiting parents in the middle of nowhere, so...)

[Hapah]

Mod: I'm guessing you mean 5/19?

Urist: Ha, I know the feeling. My folks are from a little town of 2,000 in Arkansas.

I'll try to organize all my thoughts and let you all poke holes in my inane theories in the morning. Typing it all up usually helps me sort it out myself.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Mod: I'm guessing you mean 5/19?

It looks like he just copy/pasted the last votecount and forgot to change the time.

[Hapah]

I....I just closed the tab that I'd spent an hour working on. KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNN.

Remember kids: Always write up your WOT in Word. ~____~

I'll start over.

[Hapah]

Take 2! Now with 100% more not-accidently-closing-the-tab action. Gods, the first one was so much better.

Please let me know if I missed something, or anything I say is refuted by something already in the thread. It's getting a bit too large to parse in one go.

Spoiler: Assumptions & Clarifications (click to show/hide)

First things first, all uses of the word "town" mean "not scum". A sinister 3rd party (ie cult)has probably already won, and I won't go hunting a benign 3rd party while there are still scum left. I am assuming that myself and Shakerag are both town. I don't think this is too much of a stretch (I've outlined my reasons for believing Shakerag's not-scum-ness previously), but I can dredge up the message if need be, or discuss any questions. Finally, I am assuming that a Tiruin-Book-Urist scumteam is highly unlikely, based on the fact that they are going at each other like rabid dogs.

Spoiler: Two Scum or Three? (click to show/hide)

The basis for what I think comes down to the fact that I can find no good reason for a solo scum to forfeit his NK unless he has one hell of a good item.  No NK on N3 makes a certain degree of sense for a 3-scum team: A nightkill on N3 leaves the game a 3 town 2 scum. However, electing to try to set someone up (RIP Native) would mean that the scum takes it with a successful NK on N4, 2 scum 2 town. I believe that there are three scum (two left alive), based on the absense of NK's on Nights 3 and 4. If you can find a good reason for a solo scum to forfeit 2 NK's, then go ahead and lay it on the table. I'll go ahead and lay out what I see for the Tiruin/someone scumteams, but again, I can't find any way that the two missed NK's make sense.

Spoiler: 3 Scum - Book-Jack-Tiruin (click to show/hide)

Book is the first one to level accusations at Native here, and followed through for the rest of the day. Book also took jabs at Jack all day, but it was obvious who was going to hang: These could very easily be misdirections. "Native didn't go anywhere" here would help nudge the town towards that mislynch. However, it's worth noting that Book stayed hung up on 3rd parties instead of pouncing on the Hallucination fiasco like the rest of us didhere. If they were the scum team, they'd want Native to hang, not muck up the conversation with all this cult or two different mafia nonsense.

For what it's worth, I believe Jack really did use a Scroll of Danger. I think either Book OR Urist could have protected Jack (after all, what else is a scum going to do with a protect?) It mitigates the danger and is a very innocent action while Tiruin gets his hands dirty. If Book protected Jack as well as Urist, and the RNG gods decided that Urist's protection was the one that triggered, there's not much harm in claiming your protect on someone else.

Spoiler: 3 Scum - Urist-Jack-Tiruin (click to show/hide)

Urist also put the screws to Native early into D4 here. Urist and Jack are also the two to hammer in the fact that the Hallucination Scroll slip made Native almost certainly scum here (and if they're trying to get a mislynch in, they did a damn good job of it.  Urist starting in Book D5here, with Jack nailing him to the wall shortly afterwards.

For what it's worth, I believe Jack really did use a Scroll of Danger. I think either Book OR Urist could have protected Jack (after all, what else is a scum going to do with a protect?) It mitigates the danger and is a very innocent action while Tiruin gets his hands dirty.

I've got no goddamn clue what the last scum is doing if there are only two. I've put down a few observations below.

Book: I really don't know what to think of you. You go off on that really odd Brother tangent with Jack, you misread your Scroll of Ill Will, and you were making some really odd assumptions (1 man Mafia, multiple mafias). With no NK's I think saying that there is only one Mafia is a safe bet, and if there are more than one then we're screwed already. A little paranoia is good, but it makes me a little leery.

Urist: Did you know that you've voted Book not once, not twice, but no less than five times today? You said you wanted him dead, but damn.

Jack: It's kinda funny, really. I think Jack is almost certainly innocent if there are only two scum but is almost certain guilty if there are three. If Jack and Tiruin were the only scum, then Urist must be a townie, and his protect confirms that Jack got hit by something. As others have said, I don't think Jack would be fool enough to use SoD there when his partner is on the chopping block.

My Recommendation: We lynch Jack. I think there are two scum left, since it's the only way I can make sense of the lack of NK's. I think an Urist-Jack scum pairing is slightly more likely than a Book-Jack pairing, but I can't see a Book-Urist pairing. If there are two scum left, it means Jack has a hand in it. If there is only a lone scum left, then we've got another day, barring some sort of bloodbath tonight.

Finally, PLEASE ASK QUESTIONS. The first version that was gone with the click of a mouse was much more elegant, so don't hesitate to ask for clarification or tell me I've gone soft in the head.

[Bookthras]

Oh wait,

Discussion is something that only scum benefits in curtailing.

What's that about certainties?

I don't claim certainties about people's alignments, silly! It is a certain thing that curtailing discussion hurts town and helps scum, just as it is certain this is D5. You're the one claiming certainties you couldn't have unless your PM listed who was scum to begin with. You're also the one proposing actions (not extending) that are clearly anti-town.

(your latching to these, for example, is an interesting reaction)

How?

False. Death millers of different types are pretty common in BYORs, for example. It was worth asking the question.

I did not know this. Care to provide an example or two?

I'll show you an example, which incidentally also proves how your latching onto the death miller thing is interesting: you know there have been death millers in BYORs. Your scumbuddy OrangeBottle was one in BYOR8, and his fake-flipping was instrumental to your scum victory. So you latched onto my suggesting it and decided it was a scumtell to drum up a bullshit case on me, because you are scum.

Second example from BYOR6.3 just for completeness, since you asked for two:

Spoiler: Death millers (click to show/hide)

Orangebottle - Spy
(Auto) Blue Team: You show up as Town to inspections and Mafia on death. You may change these alignments at any time.
(Mafiakill) Replace [target]: You kill the target and then switch roles with them. You still switch roles with the player even if they do not die.
(Night) Play Dead: You fake death and revive.

Pandarsenic - Archangel
(1-Shot, Mafiakill) Replace [target]: If the player is convertable, the target joins your team, and you die. Your death is not preventable. If the target is not on your team, the target dies.
(Auto) Miller: You may appear as any non-Town alignment on death. This ability (as well as Replace) will NOT show up on death. Available alignments include Mafia, X-Ally, Survivor, Cult, SK, Jester, Lyncher, Martyr, Brother, Outsider, and Watcher.
(1-Shot) Hammer: You yell "HAMMER!" during the Day to activate this ability. The Day is ended. If you are voting for the player with the most votes, that player is lynched.

so assuming "a standard scum team plus a brother-to-a-townie" is a lazy assumption, so it must be validated/challenged.

Are you saying I'm assuming this?

Aren't you? I certainly haven't see you challenge it. So, please tell us what you think is the current faction distribution.

Sure, it calmed you down enough to realize how scummy your opposition seemed, so you'd better retract it right away! Otherwise people will think you're scum!

Not really. I realized that opposing the extension would likely move votes away from you (and toward me, of course, but my roleflip would just confirm you as scum).

Potato, potato. You withdrew it so people wouldn't vote you. This is scummy as hell.


Hapah: interesting post. I'll read in detail later and post an answer then.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Book:

I don't claim certainties about people's alignments, silly! It is a certain thing that curtailing discussion hurts town and helps scum, just as it is certain this is D5. You're the one claiming certainties you couldn't have unless your PM listed who was scum to begin with.

Okay then, using what I know (which I've already stated multiple times), construct a plausible alternative to you being scum. If you can do that I'll reconsider my certainty of your alignment.

And about claiming certainties about people's alignments, your first comment to Native was:

NativeForeigner: You are Tiruin's scumbuddy.

So you're full of shit on that point.

You're also the one proposing actions (not extending) that are clearly anti-town.

You mean anti-you.

I'll show you an example, which incidentally also proves how your latching onto the death miller thing is interesting: you know there have been death millers in BYORs. Your scumbuddy OrangeBottle was one in BYOR8, and his fake-flipping was instrumental to your scum victory.

Given that the ability was revealed on death, OB was not a death miller - he was a WIFOM-generation tool (scum who got killed or townie who got hit by his replace-kill?). The uncertainty of his flipped alignment was known. In addition, how was OB's (actually Native's) flip instrumental to our victory then? I seem to remember that his ability being revealed made Zrk2's comment about flipping cult on death (and his actual flip) make a whole lot more sense, and near-eliminated the previous suspicion of a cult.

Second example from BYOR6.3 just for completeness, since you asked for two:

That case has the scum flip anything but town, but I see your point.

Aren't you? I certainly haven't see you challenge it. So, please tell us what you think is the current faction distribution.

Any of the following:
Two scum (you and Tiruin), brother to a townie
Two scum (you and Tiruin), brother to a townie, Shake or Hapah are third-party
Two scum (you and Tiruin), third party (Jack), brother to third party
Three scum (Jack, you, Tiruin), brother to scum.
Three scum (Jack, you, Tiruin), brother to scum, Shake or Hapah are third party.
Two scum (Jack and Tiruin), brother to scum, you as cross-aligned third party (This is the case if Jack's lying about the danger scroll, meaning he's concealing your action, and why would coaligned scum either kill or redirect a kill to a buddy?) - I would say this scenario is rather unlikely, as Darvi would have had to have been interested in killing Jack N2 but you'd have to be interested in saving Jack's ass D4/D5 (while simultaneously trying to lynch him and despite being responsible for the kill attempt on him N2).

Note that in all of these scenarios, you are either scum or a cross-aligned third party who would be willing to lie to town to prevent scum from dying. Are you the latter, and if so, why did you fakeclaim this action, what benefit do you gain from Jack's being alive, and why do you think Darvi tried to kill him?

Potato, potato. You withdrew it so people wouldn't vote you. This is scummy as hell.

A vote on me is a vote not on you. Except your own of course.

Hapah:

Urist: Did you know that you've voted Book not once, not twice, but no less than five times today? You said you wanted him dead, but damn.

I've been on the receiving end of such a tactic before, and I know from experience that it increases the pressure attached to such a vote. I was originally going to vote him every post, but ended up forgetting to do so.

More later when I'm less tired.