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[Hapah]

Bookthras, no time for a detailed read, but I did want to point out that I disagree with this:

a) "Brother wins if Jack wins" and "Jack is town" means "Brother wins if town wins", which is exactly the same as making him town to begin with. The notion of the 3rd-party being "town-ally" is frankly ludicrous and unbalanced in town's favour. It makes much more sense for him being brother to a different non-town 3rd party.

Where you state that a Brother to a townie is exactly the same as a townie. I would argue that is not true because the Brother, even if he does have the same wincon as the town, doesn't actually know it. He wants his brother to win, but he doesn't know what team the brother plays on. In this way, a town-aligned Brother is actually weaker than he would be if he was simply a townie, and I'd say that a scum-aligned Brother is also significantly weaker than another scum (though some trust and a Scroll of Mailing, or an inspect by the Brother, go a long way in both cases). I'd imagine that Toaster added the Brother and randomly picked his "target", but only he knows.

I'll catch up in the thread this evening and try to get out another post or two before night falls (which is tonight, FYI).

[Toaster]

Vote Count:

Jack A T: 
Bookthras: 
NativeForeigner: Bookthras, Urist Imiknorris, Jack A T, Hapah
Shakerag:
Urist Imiknorris:
Hapah: 

Not Voting: NativeForeigner, Shakerag

Day 4 will last until Thursday 5/10 at 11 PM EST, ~7 hours from now.

[Shakerag]

Shakerag:

I think Jack and UI are both likely town, maybe moreso Jack.

Why? In detail: why Jack more than Imiknorris? Why "town" rather than "not Tiruin's scumbuddy"?

Why have you not answered this question? Please do. Do you think Jack is town? Why?

Sorry, was busy myself yesterday and a good part of today.  Hmm.  Just did a bit of a brief scan.  I think my main reason for thinking Jack was town was that he was confirming the protection flavor bit.  I just wasn't getting any sort of scum read off of him.  And while this is after the fact, his more recent post about the spreadsheet makes me want to think he's town too.  I haven't had time to read any points against him yet, though, so I grant that my opinion could change after a more thorough re-read.

Urist I is just more gut feeling and town vibe, which is why I wasn't as certain.  Seemed a little odd for him to be scum and target GG with Tiruin the same night. 

Huh.  Could have sworn I had voted Native back in my last post after reading Bookthras' analysis.  I thought the votecounts were off, but I guess not. 

[Urist Imiknorris]

Book: I think it's entirely possible for a townie to have a Brother, if only to prevent the latter's presence from confirming someone as being non-town. If there was a cult, I don't know. Given that it's day 4 and we haven't seen hide nor hair of one, either there isn't one, its leader has passed up chances to convert, or Native and I are the only non-cult left. If it's the second case, I think the most likely members would be Jack and Shakerag, being confirmed non-scum to an extent, and thus being less likely to be discovered. If it's the third, fuck you all, but I highly doubt that all four of you are coordinating your actions.

Native: I call BS because quite frankly I don't believe you.

Also: who's the thief who stole Native's stuff yesterday?

[NativeForeigner]

Book: It seems a little silly, but like Hapaph said, they don't know their brother's wincon (I think). So it possible that Toaster just picked the brother at random.

If there was a cult, I'd suspect at least you to be in it. You're a well-known good player and you've been in the game for at least one night. Why bring up a cult?

Shakerag: Anything at all to add?

Urist I: Why don't you believe me?

[Hapah]

Urist: Good point on the Brother. And if there are Cult out there, we're probably well and truly screwed already. Hmm...

Mod: If a Cultist tries to Convert Person A, and the Mafia kills Person A the same night, do Person A flip as Cult or as their original alignment?

More later.

[NativeForeigner]

I noticed that conversion are not mentioned on the order of operations. Unless it's under "blessings/curses" or "misc".

[Urist Imiknorris]

Native: I don't believe you because are you seriously that bad at remembering what you did that you'd look at what you used, misremember its effect and then use that to misremember why you used it?

[Bookthras]

Shakerag:
Hmm. That's a rather passive, bet-hedging reply, and didn't address why "town" as opposed to "not Tiruin's buddy". Please do a more thorough re-read as you say, and give me your thoughts on the presence of a 3rd party. Is there? Who may be it? What kind would you think is more likely? Do you think "brother to a townie" is likely?


Native:

Why bring up a cult?

Mostly because it'd be the most dangerous non-killing 3rd party, and I suspect there's still a 3rd party out there. Also, hoping to learn something from people's reactions, but there hasn't been anything noteworthy. I generally agree with Imiknorris/Hapah: either there's no cult, or they've already won. But I'd like to see more effort at rooting out the rest of the threats.


Imiknorris:

Book: I think it's entirely possible for a townie to have a Brother, if only to prevent the latter's presence from confirming someone as being non-town.

Hmm. Makes some sense, but I think it's pretty unbalanced to be basically "town-ally". I do think Jack acted scummily in his previous reply, so I'd like to hear what he has to say about this before passing judgement. but questions for you: do you think there's a 3rd party? if so, of which kind? other than Native, who is scummy and why? please explicitly state your win condition.

[NativeForeigner]

Native: I don't believe you because are you seriously that bad at remembering what you did that you'd look at what you used, misremember its effect and then use that to misremember why you used it?

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say. When I used it, I looked at the "You dig out your Scroll of Hallucination." PM, saw that I was concentrating on Flandre, recalled the effects as protection and block, and knew that I didn't really use it for the positive effect.

PPE: Oh, I see what you're saying now. Still, see above.

[NativeForeigner]

EBWDP: Extend. There can still be more discussion. If y'all are going to lynch me, we need to make sure to have a proper lynch set up for tomorrow if we want any chance of winning.

PPE: If there's more than one scum left or scum and a hostile third party and town doesn't get a lucky block or protect (or scum gives up its kill for whatever reason) town will lose.

[Hapah]

Native: I wouldn't count on the extend, you shot yourself in the foot pretty bad.

All this conversation gives me something to think about on the drive home! We need a good conversation before night, especially this late in the game.

[NativeForeigner]

Native: I wouldn't count on the extend, you shot yourself in the foot pretty bad.

All this conversation gives me something to think about on the drive home! We need a good conversation before night, especially this late in the game.

It still doesn't hurt, and I still want to win. As town or scum, the only way for me to win is with an extend.

[Urist Imiknorris]

You sound awfully certain that there are three scum, Native. Mind sharing why?

Book: I'm not sure if there's another third party or not. If there is, I think it would probably be either a lyncher or jester - someone who wouldn't want to claim, but doesn't have a kill. Beyond Native, I'm concerned about Hapah, although I can't really pin down why. If Native somehow does flip town, I'd also be looking at you. My win condition is the elimination of all anti-town killing or converting roles.

[NativeForeigner]

You sound awfully certain that there are three scum, Native. Mind sharing why?

PPE: If there's more than one scum left or scum and a hostile third party and town doesn't get a lucky block or protect (or scum gives up its kill for whatever reason) town will lose.

Please try reading next time.

And if you're referring to my last post, I'm not confident that town will pull its shit together by tomorrow, it needs to happen right now.

If Native somehow does flip town, I'd also be looking at you.

Might as well start looking right now, why wait?