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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - E3 - Game Over - Scum Victory  (Read 82389 times)

zomara0292

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #330 on: April 20, 2012, 02:19:51 pm »

I will be away from home until then. May not be able to post.
EXTEND (lack ability to bold)
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I hear a piranha is good eating.  I have a spear; I'll be fine!
The Pilot and their cargo handlers paused when they saw that the entire camp is covered in eldritch runes coated in blood. And rotting monkey corpses everywhere..

They decide that they didn't get paid enough for this..

Pranz

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #331 on: April 20, 2012, 03:00:54 pm »

Extend



EDIT: sry, Dr.Phibes here, from a friends computer, accidentally posted from his acc.
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borno

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #332 on: April 20, 2012, 04:38:34 pm »

I am rather busy now too. Will post in a few hours.

Extend.
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Strategia

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #333 on: April 20, 2012, 05:54:02 pm »

It's an indicator, and it helps me get a feel for the player. That's it. It's a neutral question that has no immediate bearing on my vote.
I personally don't see how, but I am sure you know what to look for in the reply. Care to teach that technique to me after we are done with this game? Its. . . . . . different. Makes me want to know it for some reason.

Remind me to PM you when the game ends.

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Today, you're both voting for zomara, a fairly easy lynch.
That hurt me quite a bit. Am I really that easy to pin as a lynching target?

You're new to Mafia and new to this game, while Magma, Phibes and me have been in it from the beginning, and Magma and me have been in BMs before. Both you and borno, when you just joined, were thrown into a game in progress with existing "relationships" between the players (as in, suspicion and such), and both of you have been throwing votes around trying to get a grip on the situation. That makes it easier to paint you or borno as scum, and you're more active. I think that's why they voted you.

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zomara mostly appears newbish, especially since he just replaced in.

Just to clarify this bit, there's a difference between "newb" and "noob". "Newb" means "new", "noob" is, well..... noob. I'm not calling you a noob, just a newb. FYI.



Wtf, all my targets so far have been killed? My only target was Dariush, yes he died but so did Painiac and i didnt suspct him. YOU did, should i suspect you becuse of that?

Again, note how I only started laying into Painiac after going through RVS and pressuring others, until I thought I had a scumread. I said right on D1 that you appeared off to me, and I'm not the only one who couldn't get a read on Magma. You two, on the other hand, were rather eagerly going after Dariush. And you've been sticking together ever since.

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And is the table flipped now? i suspected zomora then borno came and atlast magma voted him. So first its magma pulling the strings and now its me? Or is that our master plan?!?!?!??!?!

"Voting first" doesn't mean pulling the strings. If anything, Darvi's the one doing the string-pulling. You're attacking me on a point I didn't even make. Think about how that looks for a bit. No, please, just think about it.

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*DUN* *DUN* *DUUUHHH* Your reason have far to many variables. Again if you are so sure, why do you still vote on magma? Its doesent matter who of ous you kill and like i said i am a far easier alternative, right?

You appear to have missed the point where I said that "more competent = more dangerous", which is why I decided to vote Magma in the first place. If you're going after two scum, I consider it better to go after the better one first, 'cause he's got a better chance of turning suspicion away from himself the longer he's left alive.



Look what you've just proved: If Phibes and I are the scumteam, then our actions make sense.

Allow me to make a counterstatement: If Phibes and I are not the scumteam, then our actions make sense.

Do you see the problem here? Both statements are true, so the fact that my actions make sense does not imply anything at all. You've got a suspicion, and you're blindly following it. You're reading all of our posts believing that we are scum, and you continue holding onto your theory because nothing disproves it. What you fail to notice is that there is also no evidence for your theory. That's called confirmation bias, and you should snap out of it immediately.

Good scum's actions always make sense, otherwise they wouldn't be good scum. Right now there's precious little evidence for any theory, and the rampant replacements aren't making it any easier to acquire - you can't really expect zomara or borno to know exactly what drove their predecessors in earlier posts. I've always vacillated between considering Phibes scum or just an idiot, but right now, scum makes more and more sense, and I've never been able to get a read off you, which automatically made you suspicious.

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Consider this a free lesson in rationality. If you don't understand that, then you haven't read enough Harry Potter fanfiction.

I don't quite get this. Are you referring to a specific work? The only HP fan-works I know about are My Immortal and HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. (Blame TV Tropes.)



I also decided to do a bit of back tracking on my own and both Dr.Phibes and MagmaMcFry seem to have voted for the same person each day's end. if I remember correctly, once is a coincidence, twice is suspicious, but, today making the third time, three times is a pattern. That leads me to believe both of you might be scum. With that in mind, I vote MagmaMcFry.
Excuse me? That's really quite sad. It's the kind of wrong thinking that Strategia's doing already. You've found a possible reason for our actions, but it's still only a possibility until you manage to rule out all other possible explanations, or at least all the likely ones. Did you perchance consider that Phibes and I voted Dariush and you simply because he and you were being scummy? Strategia's irrational bullshit is seriously messing up your thought process.

This isn't Sherlock Holmes, and we don't have all the time in the world. Right now, having a possible reason and a possible theory is better than having nothing at all. And zomara's right; once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action, to quote Ian Fleming.



zomora, you can say the same thing about you and Strategia, (or not you, but you character, bulldog voted same as strategia, you didnt the first day, but we will come to that later and know your following him again, not you your character) I actually think it is more suspicious if we have 2 players voting same as Strategia than me voting same as magma beacuse the chance that 2 players follows Strategias voting blindly, when they have the same character is more than fucking suspicious! Ah yeah, when zomora actually didnt vote same as Strategia, but if my theory is right they new Dariush wasnt scum and its better to have a noob who cant spell than an IC running around. Plus they didnt want to vote same all the time, but now we are back. Btw this leaves ous with 3 noobs and 2 more experienced players, the fact that 2 noobs would be mafia are unlikly beacuse the mafia havent picked blindly and they have succeded going under our radar the whole time, its a long shot to think 2 noobs would have gotten this far. Thats why one of the more experienced players must be mafia and that leaves ous with Magma and Strategia. My money goes on Strategia beacuse i am pretty convinced Magma is a good boy. Really i dont even need to convince borno, the satisfaction i will get when i am right will be enough. Unvote, vote Strategia

Eugh, lrn2punctuation. I can barely parse this. Okay, I'll try and take it apart for analysis.

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zomora, you can say the same thing about you and Strategia, (or not you, but you character, bulldog voted same as strategia, you didnt the first day, but we will come to that later and know your following him again, not you your character) I actually think it is more suspicious if we have 2 players voting same as Strategia than me voting same as magma beacuse the chance that 2 players follows Strategias voting blindly, when they have the same character is more than fucking suspicious!

Just FYI, this sentence is waaay too long and rambling. Anyway. So people voting with me is more suspicious than you voting with Magma? Is that just because I've been snapping at your heels this entire time?

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Ah yeah, when zomora actually didnt vote same as Strategia, but if my theory is right they new Dariush wasnt scum and its better to have a noob who cant spell than an IC running around. Plus they didnt want to vote same all the time, but now we are back.

So now zomara suddenly isn't following me blindly? As far as knowing Dariush wasn't scum and having newbs around is better than ICs, I don't even know what you're trying to say. Are you just panicking now and throwing every thought you have on here in a desperate attempt to divert suspicion to me? You should know that panicking when under attack is not exactly a towntell.

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Btw this leaves ous with 3 noobs and 2 more experienced players, the fact that 2 noobs would be mafia are unlikly beacuse the mafia havent picked blindly and they have succeded going under our radar the whole time, its a long shot to think 2 noobs would have gotten this far. Thats why one of the more experienced players must be mafia and that leaves ous with Magma and Strategia. My money goes on Strategia beacuse i am pretty convinced Magma is a good boy.

See, this is the problem with your supposed theory. Scum don't get to choose who's scum. (Cults can, but they don't exist in BMs.) Everyone is equally likely to be scum at the start of the game. And you're right about at least one of the scum being more experienced - that would be vague and unreadable Magma, and you would be his newbie lapdog.

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Really i dont even need to convince borno, the satisfaction i will get when i am right will be enough.

So your counterargument is..... "I'm right and you're not"? You don't even need to convince borno? Dear gods man, that kind of arrogance does not reflect well on you, both as a character in the game as well as in general. I mean, if you were someone on the level of Dariush or webadict, it would make some kind of sense, but on you it just looks bad.







I'll be out of the country until Tuesday, so I doubt I'll make it back in time for the Monday deadline. (Although knowing this game I'll probably be well on time for when the day ends on wednesday :P)

Dr.Phibes

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #334 on: April 21, 2012, 04:43:29 am »

Read the whole post... The last part.
Where did i say you can choose whos scum? I said you havent picked your targets blindly.
Its seems you are just dodging what i am saying. First, Dariush was suspicious, he even admited that he didnt care and started trolling in the beginning. So that me and Magma suspected him is not that wrong. Your forgetting there are others in the game that voted him. Yeah, Magma switched votes sometimes, but i am new so i didnt really switch target much and beacuse i thought Dariush was scummy i voted him. You cant say it was three times, beacuse it was the same person TWICE! And he didnt even try to convince any of ous that he wasnt scum. I am not panicking beacuse you "suspect" me, why should i? you are not even voting on me. I am panicking beacuse i know i am right and its soo hard to prove it, but i said why earlier. If you cared to read the post, you would have found that i wrote that two people that are following you is more "suspicious" than if i vote same as Magma two times. This is beacuse they have the same role. I must admit i am not 100 procent sure on zomora but i am 100 procent certian its you!
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MagmaMcFry

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #335 on: April 21, 2012, 06:43:02 am »

Strategia:

You appear to have missed the point where I said that "more competent = more dangerous", which is why I decided to vote Magma in the first place. If you're going after two scum, I consider it better to go after the better one first, 'cause he's got a better chance of turning suspicion away from himself the longer he's left alive.
Aha. You vote me because "more competent = more dangerous". That must mean that "more dangerous = more scum". But this is wrong. You said it yourself:
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Scum don't get to choose who's scum.
If I were scum, then I'd be very dangerous scum, and it would be good for town to lynch me first. But if I were town and I got lynched, what would happen then? We'd lose, that's what. Essentially, you're voting for me so town has a better position on D4 if it comes to D4. But that does not increase the chances of us reaching D4, and that's exactly what we should be doing.

May I suggest that you vote zomara instead? Because we've got some actual strong evidence that zomara is scum: Zomara entered this game on D2, and for the whole rest of D2 he was much more interested in keeping his own image clean than in scumhunting, let's call this weerd (sic) for the sake of my argument. Now let's look at the options:

What is the likelihood that zomara would be weerd if he was scum? Low to medium, considering he would be newbscum.
Now the more important part: What is the likelihood that zomara would be weerd if he was town? Very, very low. The mentality just wouldn't fit.

See the point? The likelihood that Zomara is scum has drastically increased because Zomara was being weerd, and that's because Zomara being town is not a plausible explanation for Zomara being weerd. So go and vote Zomara now, instead of running around shouting the logical equivalent of "This is a theory, therefore it must be correct".


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Good scum's actions always make sense, otherwise they wouldn't be good scum.
Good town's actions always make sense, otherwise they wouldn't be good town. Stop being biased, Strategia.


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I've never been able to get a read off you, which automatically made you suspicious.
Please define your concept of "read". Because if it's the same as mine, then your statement is just wrong.


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Consider this a free lesson in rationality. If you don't understand that, then you haven't read enough Harry Potter fanfiction.

I don't quite get this. Are you referring to a specific work? The only HP fan-works I know about are My Immortal and HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. (Blame TV Tropes.)
Yes, I'm referring to a specific work, but for the sake of you not vanishing from this thread (yes, it's that awesome), I'll only give you a link after this game is over.


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I also decided to do a bit of back tracking on my own and both Dr.Phibes and MagmaMcFry seem to have voted for the same person each day's end. if I remember correctly, once is a coincidence, twice is suspicious, but, today making the third time, three times is a pattern. That leads me to believe both of you might be scum. With that in mind, I vote MagmaMcFry.
Excuse me? That's really quite sad. It's the kind of wrong thinking that Strategia's doing already. You've found a possible reason for our actions, but it's still only a possibility until you manage to rule out all other possible explanations, or at least all the likely ones. Did you perchance consider that Phibes and I voted Dariush and you simply because he and you were being scummy? Strategia's irrational bullshit is seriously messing up your thought process.

This isn't Sherlock Holmes, and we don't have all the time in the world. Right now, having a possible reason and a possible theory is better than having nothing at all.
At the beginning of the game you have 36 possible theories, each one corresponding to a certain scumteam. Your goal is to make the amount of plausible theories as small as possible. Not by ignoring certain possibilities, but by reducing their plausibility.


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And zomara's right; once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action, to quote Ian Fleming.
I still fail to see why this applies here.
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Spinal_Taper

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #336 on: April 21, 2012, 02:25:37 pm »

I'd like to play eventually.
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borno

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #337 on: April 21, 2012, 05:09:27 pm »

Sorry I was gone guys. Anyway,
Strategia, Zomara, I looked over all of your recent arguments. In them you are not just being stupid, but you are relying on false arguments because you can't find any real ones! You're voting for magma and not Dr.Phibes because voting Dr.Phibes would be more suspicious!

Strategia, Zomara, why are you SCCCUUUUMMM?!
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zomara0292

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #338 on: April 21, 2012, 09:49:00 pm »

Strategia, Zomara, why are you SCCCUUUUMMM?!
You do realize that question is biased, right. And, if you want proof to my reasoning of suspecting magma and phobes, give me 24 hours to get to a computer so i can compile it all in one long winded post.
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I hear a piranha is good eating.  I have a spear; I'll be fine!
The Pilot and their cargo handlers paused when they saw that the entire camp is covered in eldritch runes coated in blood. And rotting monkey corpses everywhere..

They decide that they didn't get paid enough for this..

zomara0292

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #339 on: April 22, 2012, 10:20:33 am »

I am having trouble finding all the post with the votes in them, but I did happen to notice this:

the above only applies if "weerd"=weird

Spoiler (click to show/hide)


There is also this:

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Really i dont even need to convince borno, the satisfaction i will get when i am right will be enough.
The only way you would or should not need to convince anyone is if they are scum and working with you, which makes you scum. I am sure that is not what you are aiming at, but that is what, to me, it seemed like you were saying.
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I hear a piranha is good eating.  I have a spear; I'll be fine!
The Pilot and their cargo handlers paused when they saw that the entire camp is covered in eldritch runes coated in blood. And rotting monkey corpses everywhere..

They decide that they didn't get paid enough for this..

zomara0292

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #340 on: April 22, 2012, 10:32:18 am »

I forgot to mention:
1. Following
moment one and two, the most obvious two people who should be under question are Magma and Strategia.
2. My hypocrocy moments. I was not fully serious.
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I hear a piranha is good eating.  I have a spear; I'll be fine!
The Pilot and their cargo handlers paused when they saw that the entire camp is covered in eldritch runes coated in blood. And rotting monkey corpses everywhere..

They decide that they didn't get paid enough for this..

MagmaMcFry

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #341 on: April 22, 2012, 01:17:24 pm »

Nope, your statements are totally correct, and more competent people are obviously also more dangerous. But the point I'm making here is that competence is not a scumtell, and neither is dangerousness. So essentially Strat voted me for reasons that don't translate to scumtells.


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Great, you know how Mafia works. Now what was your point there? And how has Borno's comment shown you that?


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the above only applies if "weerd"=weird
First of all, "weerd" != "weird". I know how to spell "weird", thank you very much. I simply created a new word ("weerd") and defined it to refer to the behaviour you were showing on D2, and I did that so I didn't have to type "much more interested in keeping his own image clean than in scumhunting" every time I meant that. Call it a macro if you want to.

Now let's define "dikk" to refer to Dariush's behaviour in this game. Note that "dikk" != "dick". I voted for Dariush because he was a dikk and because Dariush being a dikk can't be explained by Dariush being sane town.

My premises that lead to the conclusion "Dariush is very likely scum" were:
1) Dariush is very likely sane.
2) Dariush is being a dikk.
3) Sane dikks are very likely scum.
These premises are all completely reasonable, and Dariush was very likely to be scum from an observer's point of view. The fact that Dariush was still town doesn't disprove my reasoning, it merely shows that Dariush was insane.

Now let's apply this to you:

1) You are very likely sane.
2) You are being weerd.
3) Sane weerd people are very likely scum.

Conclusion: You are very likely scum.

And don't you dare be insane as well.


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How can stuff make too much sense? How can scumhunting not make sense? How is making sense a scumtell?


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My concept of "read" is the same as the one you just described: It's a tell to gauge how scummy a person might be.

Now if I just understood that correctly, you just voted me because I'm the least scummy. I don't know what kind of contortions the logical part of your brain must be going through, but I know for sure that the logical part of my brain just started crying.


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Spoiler: List (click to show/hide)


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My point is that it's NOT any evidence whatsoever AGAINST any other theory, because other theories can explain this coincidence equally well.



Spoiler: Tomorrow's headlines (click to show/hide)
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Dr.Phibes

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #342 on: April 22, 2012, 03:44:02 pm »

I think we can rule out borno as scum, beacuse when it was a tie between zomora and magma borno choose to vote me instead of finishing the game. I will know change back my vote on zomora. I chaged my vote in the first place beacuse i thought it would be easier to prove it was Strategia, but seeing Borno came to his senses i dont need too anymore.
unvote, zomora
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Dr.Phibes

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #343 on: April 22, 2012, 03:48:22 pm »

Omg hahahahahaha, The last part in Magmas text, holy fuck!
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If one person has an imaginary friend, they're crazy, if many people have the same imaginary friend it's religion?

zomara0292

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XXXII - D3 - I Think The Mod Doesn't Know Irony [5/9]
« Reply #344 on: April 22, 2012, 05:42:47 pm »

First of all, "weerd" != "weird". I know how to spell "weird", thank you very much. I simply created a new word ("weerd") and defined it to refer to the behaviour you were showing on D2, and I did that so I didn't have to type "much more interested in keeping his own image clean than in scumhunting" every time I meant that. Call it a macro if you want to.

Now let's define "dikk" to refer to Dariush's behaviour in this game. Note that "dikk" != "dick". I voted for Dariush because he was a dikk and because Dariush being a dikk can't be explained by Dariush being sane town.

My premises that lead to the conclusion "Dariush is very likely scum" were:
1) Dariush is very likely sane.
2) Dariush is being a dikk.
3) Sane dikks are very likely scum.
These premises are all completely reasonable, and Dariush was very likely to be scum from an observer's point of view. The fact that Dariush was still town doesn't disprove my reasoning, it merely shows that Dariush was insane.

Now let's apply this to you:

1) You are very likely sane.
2) You are being weerd.
3) Sane weerd people are very likely scum.

Conclusion: You are very likely scum.

Isn't that already a set scumtell?
Appearing Too Townie: There's no official name for this one, but being too concerned about your image; specifically avoiding things that might be seen as scumtells. The idea is that scum are very concerned about being found out, and so want to act nonscummy. Townies know they're not scum, so they're less concerned about LOOKING nonscummy and more concerned about finding scum.

Which is a coincidence because:

Quote

Now if I just understood that correctly, you just voted me because I'm the least scummy. . . .
It fits that scumtell.


How can stuff make too much sense? How can scumhunting not make sense? How is making sense a scumtell?

And answers that question.

Quote
Quote
Great, you know how Mafia works. Now what was your point there? And how has Borno's comment shown you that?

It showed me that I should not just focus on who is scum, but also focusing on who are apart of the scum team. Taking myself out of the equation, it doesn't leave many people.
Plus, looking into the fact that there is likely at least one competent scum:
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That means if I am lynched and I am scum, that leave Strategia as the next logical choice, or vice versa. That also means that, if Magma is Lynched and is scum, then that leaves Phibes as the next logical choice.
That means that it is nether I, nor Borno, nor Phibes that should be checked, but you and Strate. . . . . whatever his name is.
Spoiler: Idea to prove my point (click to show/hide)
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I hear a piranha is good eating.  I have a spear; I'll be fine!
The Pilot and their cargo handlers paused when they saw that the entire camp is covered in eldritch runes coated in blood. And rotting monkey corpses everywhere..

They decide that they didn't get paid enough for this..
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