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Author Topic: Calm and Cool Progressive Discussion Thread  (Read 1291709 times)

Virex

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #480 on: March 13, 2012, 07:47:21 pm »

So the odds of any particular person in Australia being able to claim a convict ancestor is surprisingly low, even for those who's family has been here 6 generations or more.
That's not how genealogy works. Let's assume for the moment that at any point in the time frame we're considering, 10% of the Australian male population was a convict. Let's also assume that said time frame lasted 6 generations and that the chance for marrying a convict and a non-convict are equal. Then we get, for a single generation, a chance of 90% that the father was not a convict. Over the whole 6 generations, this chance is (1-0.96)*100% = 47%. So, at the end of the time frame under consideration, about half the population had at least one convict in the male line.
Now, assuming that the time between the end of the incarceration era and right now is 4 generations, that in each generation 20% of the population growth could be attributed to migration and again assuming no bias in partner selection, we get the following:
Chance that either the mother or the father is descendant from a convict (note we're looking at the children of each generation)
Generation 1: (1-(1-0.47*0.8 )2)*100% = 61%
Generation 2: (1-(1-0.61*0.8 )2)*100% = 74%
Generation 3: (1-(1-0.74*0.8 )2)*100% = 83%
0.83*0.8*100% = 66%
In other words, in the 4th generation, 66% of the population will be able to trace their linage to at least 1 convict.
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Leafsnail

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #481 on: March 13, 2012, 07:54:51 pm »

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/cutline/rush-limbaugh-calls-national-organization-women-nags-204036024.html

Really? He just keeps on goin' doesn't he....
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Limbaugh, who referred to NOW members as "Nags," continued: "A godsend! The Nags called me a godsend. So not only am I God's gift to Obama, I'm God's gift to women."
The thing I'm struggling with most is Limbaugh's complete lack of irony detection.  As in, his sense of humour is either completely absent or horribly misfiring.
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Reelya

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #482 on: March 13, 2012, 07:57:03 pm »

In other words, in the 4th generation, 66% of the population will be able to trace their linage to at least 1 convict.

Unfortunately, that's factually incorrect as far as actual Australians go. Which shows there's a flaw in one of the assumptions.

Closest figure i can find is that between 5% - 22% of Australians have a convict in their family tree.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2012, 08:08:08 pm by Reelya »
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Descan

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #483 on: March 13, 2012, 08:06:04 pm »

Probably the equal chance to marry a convict as non. Neverminding the numbers, would you marry a convict? :P The General You, I mean.
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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #484 on: March 13, 2012, 08:14:13 pm »

Well you have to ask the question... how much inbreeding was going on there?

It might explain why "bastard" is not so much of an insult in Australia.

...

Ok, but seriously. A less insulting to Australians question to ask would be "Were convicts more likely to marry other convicts, or never marry at all?"

Fake edit: Damn, ninja.
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Truean

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #485 on: March 14, 2012, 04:22:27 pm »

http://jezebel.com/5893011/law-will-allow-employers-to-fire-women-for-using-whore-pills

Really Arizona? Really?

So your boss can fire you for using birth control pills if this law passes?

"Yesterday, a Senate Judiciary Committee endorsed Republican Debbie Lesko's HB2625 by a vote of 6-2, which would allow an employer to request proof that a woman using insurance to buy birth control was being prescribed the birth control for reasons other than not wanting to get pregnant. It's all about freedom, she said, echoing everyone who thinks there's nothing ironic about claiming that a country that's "free" allows people's bosses to dictate what medical care is available to them through insurance. First amendment. The constitution. Rights of religious people to practice the treasured tenets of their faiths, the tenets that dictate that religious people get to tell everyone who is not of faith how they're supposed to live, and the freedom to have that faith enforced by law. FreedomŽ."<----Huh?

Further, Lesko states, with a straight face, that this bill is necessary because "we live in America; we don't live in the Soviet Union." <--- What the hell does this mean?

Religious Freedom TM-- Passing laws letting you fire people for doing something they're allowed to do in the privacy of their own bedrooms? Wait wait wait, where is the law saying you can fire men for using Viagra, which has no other purpose than to be sexual? I mean hey, if you're going to impliedly call people sexually promiscuous and fire them for it, then, ... something about what's good for the goose being good for the gander? Lil sexist? Just a bit?

Wow, how... how exactly would you even "submit evidence that it wasn't for sexual reasons," anyhow? Nevermind why you should ever have to, how the crap would you? Note from your doctor? Ok, I'm pretty sure a female gynecologist and write whatever the crap is required, so the law is a nullity in practice anyhow. It does create an embarrassing roadblock, though. Then of course there's Griswald v. Conn. which stated an individual right to purchase contraceptives, but whatever....

[burst out laughing] O God, it's not an Onion Article Joke.... :( O ... they're ... they're actually serious....
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Scelly9

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #486 on: March 14, 2012, 04:31:26 pm »

Quote
Further, Lesko states, with a straight face, that this bill is necessary because "we live in America; we don't live in the Soviet Union."
This is what I've been saying. The whole anti-russian/commie thing is ridiculous. We should really grow up and get over it.
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Sirus

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #487 on: March 14, 2012, 04:32:36 pm »

Quote
Further, Lesko states, with a straight face, that this bill is necessary because "we live in America; we don't live in the Soviet Union."
This is what I've been saying. The whole anti-russian/commie thing is ridiculous. We should really grow up and get over it.
And here I thought that most of us have. Fucking hell, I'm glad I don't live in Arizona.
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Scelly9

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #488 on: March 14, 2012, 04:35:44 pm »

Quote
Further, Lesko states, with a straight face, that this bill is necessary because "we live in America; we don't live in the Soviet Union."
This is what I've been saying. The whole anti-russian/commie thing is ridiculous. We should really grow up and get over it.
And here I thought that most of us have. Fucking hell, I'm glad I don't live in Arizona.
Yeah. I understand why people who lived back in that time, or served in Vietnam, would still be bigoted. But its kinda ridiculous that everyone in the schools near me uses "communist" as an insult.
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MonkeyHead

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #489 on: March 14, 2012, 04:36:28 pm »

Another day passes, and as usual, the rest of the Western world rolls thier eyes at that good old crazy USA. Where it seems that freedom more and more seems to mean the opposite to what we generally understand the word to mean. I dont want to piss you off or anything, but here in the UK, if a woman of any age wishes to be put on birth control pills by thier GP, they can, confidentially (which is a big deal for teenage girls), and for free through the NHS. Of course, to certain conservative elements of the USA, this very thing would no doubt be held to be some kind of ultimate evil - a socialist, nay communist system encouraging the spread of STD'S and underage sex.

Scelly9

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #490 on: March 14, 2012, 04:47:55 pm »

Another day passes, and as usual, the rest of the Western world rolls thier eyes at that good old crazy USA. Where it seems that freedom more and more seems to mean the opposite to what we generally understand the word to mean. I dont want to piss you off or anything, but here in the UK, if a woman of any age wishes to be put on birth control pills by thier GP, they can, confidentially (which is a big deal for teenage girls), and for free through the NHS. Of course, to certain conservative elements of the USA, this very thing would no doubt be held to be some kind of ultimate evil - a socialist, nay communist system encouraging the spread of STD'S and underage sex.
Trust me, your not gonna piss me off. I agree with you about all of that. Its ridiculous that thinking that withholding birth control will deter underage sex. All its gonna do is increase underage pregnancies.
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ggamer

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #491 on: March 14, 2012, 04:59:34 pm »

((Thanks for explaining the catholic-abortion issue earlier. Sorry I never replied, twas pre-ocuppied))

I'm pissed. All of these people that, if I spotted them in a restaurant in Rural Georgia, I would identify as my comrade and joke with are citing all things negative as communism.

There are two reasons this might be.

1- The interviewee is joking, and was not aware that he was being recorded, i.e. "Boa, them fuckin' birth control pills aught' to be fuckin' outlawed man, they're fuckin' communist!"

2- They are completely sincere, and actually think that Josef Stalin himself created the institution of birth control. i.e. "No, in all seriousness, the commies probably made birth control. Just sayin'."

I kid with the best of em' about negative things being secretly orchestrated by socialist bastards, but getting interviewed and officially stating seems a little off the wall.

Truean

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #492 on: March 14, 2012, 05:00:36 pm »

Another day passes, and as usual, the rest of the Western world rolls thier eyes at that good old crazy USA. Where it seems that freedom more and more seems to mean the opposite to what we generally understand the word to mean. I dont want to piss you off or anything, but here in the UK, if a woman of any age wishes to be put on birth control pills by thier GP, they can, confidentially (which is a big deal for teenage girls), and for free through the NHS. Of course, to certain conservative elements of the USA, this very thing would no doubt be held to be some kind of ultimate evil - a socialist, nay communist system encouraging the spread of STD'S and underage sex.

The Cold War has been over for 20 something years and thus, we've lost our common enemy to unite against. So, we're looking for someone to take the USSR's (CCCP's) place as chief scapegoat. So far, possible unwilling, matches may include women, gays, immigrants, Muslims, certain minorities, the unemployed, etc. You can't even effectively peacefully protest anymore without risking a face full of pepper spray or worse. A corporation has first amendment rights, but not a real, live person? Fabulous.

Once again, you're correct in saying underage sex will not stop due to restrictions on birth control, if that's even what they're getting at. Rather, you're going to have a ton of unwed teenage moms and unfed kids.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2012, 03:53:35 am by Truean »
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Current Spare Time Fiction Project: (C) 2010 http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=63660.0
Disclaimer: I never take cases online for ethical reasons. If you require an attorney; you need to find one licensed to practice in your jurisdiction. Never take anything online as legal advice, because each case is different and one size does not fit all. Wants nothing at all to do with law.

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MonkeyHead

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #493 on: March 14, 2012, 05:04:25 pm »

The part of the UK that I live and work in has the highest rate of teenage pregnancy in Western Europe. I dread to think what it would be like if we didnt have as full on an approach to education and services relating to sexual health as we do. geuss we might find out by watching Arizona.  ???

darkrider2

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Re: PoH's Calm and Cool Progressive Expression Thread
« Reply #494 on: March 14, 2012, 05:35:13 pm »

This is all highly sexist. A man having a condom on him is fine, but a woman taking a pill is tantamount to the highest of sins.

I can really see no point to this crusade against contraception other than being a complete attack on womens rights.
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