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[IronyOwl]

Shorten. This is ridiculous.

Escaping normally from a lynch in a game with no roleflips and an unholy fuckload of survivors who are interested in anyone getting lynched as long as it's not them, especially after I've dared to go against the popular opinion and side with Toony? Naaaah, that's too easy. So easy I won't even attempt it.

It's hardly even worth mentioning at this point, but this raises an interesting contradiction. Why would you stick your neck out yesterday to side with Toony, then attempt to blackmail us with lack of information and rig up a scenario where you can't be lynched today?

I vigged both Native and PM. I was so suspicious of Wardens at the beginning because I am one and I had a two-shot vigkill with an added bonus of getting the target's race due to me being borked in the head. Native flipped alien, PM flipped human. In addition, I have a one-shot role steal (though still retaining my psychic powers if I had any unused) that will kill me if I use it on a non-human.

Bullshit. You were the one who kept going on and on about how we're losing two people a cycle and there won't be any of us left and ohgodohgodohgodlynchBookthras, and now you're saying both kills were limited actions from yourself?

Bull.

Shit.

A sudden thought struck me earlier today (OOC) and after a short clarification it appears I'll be able to use it on 'dead' people if they are actually alive flavorwise, so I plan to use it tonight on PM to get his pilot role. The end.

And you couldn't/wouldn't just say "Hey guys, how about I rolesteal a dead guy and then we'll have a spare pilot!" because...? You've just openly admitted to trying to keep us in the dark for some selfish scheme of yours, I don't see why we'd assume you'd be telling the truth about this (even if it was credible).

Moreover, I don't believe you. The NKs are by far the closest things we have to anybody "dying," meaning if you can vig two pilots and then steal their roles, you can steal anyone's roles and there's no reason whatsoever for the PM to mention living targets in the first place.

Finally, it's also conveniently one of those plans where we don't lynch you, then we take your word for it, then we don't lynch you the rest of the game, so that ain't happening.

[Mephansteras]

Meph: Does shortening multiple days in a row increase the danger?

The less you rest the further ahead you get but the more tired you will be.

[Toaster]

Shorten.

Dariush, you really need to work on your fakeclaims- you haven't really improved since Sorc App 2.  Everything you said is an incredible tower of bullshit, but the biggest one is you forgot that Native claimed pilot.  If you were really a townie concerned with his claims, you would have checked that.


This is only a little head start- we should be fine.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Yeah, Shorten.

[Jim Groovester]

Did Dariush just claim that he killed pilots, and for some reason we're supposed to keep him around? Why are we having any discussion at all about this?

But, I don't think we should be shortening. Based on what Mephansteras said, successfully evading our pursuers has two factors: our head start, and how fast we run, both of which are variable in how much we rest. I'll exhibit my point with bullshit mathematical modeling.

f(x) = b - ax
g(x) = cx

These two functions come together during the run phase to produce:

H(x,y) = f(x) + g(x)y - ay = (b - ax) + (cx-a)y

For the sake of argument assume that if H(x,y) is ever negative, then people start getting captured. Therefore, it's more important that we prioritize increasing our speed, as we gain linear benefit from that in the run phase than the constant benefit we get from shortening the rest phase. If we rest too little, then we're essentially entirely at the mercy of our head start, and this might not prevent us from being captured if we continue shortening.

I think we should wait for the rest phase to roll over naturally, as Mephansteras said that that's the happy medium where we can get a decent head start and run faster than our pursuers.

My main suspicions, in order: Dariush, GG, Toaster, Jim.

A bit of a wide net you're casting, isn't it? That's four out of nine players remaining.

It could be wider. I don't trust IronyOwl, Zrk2 or Shakerag, as they have been lurky and either non-committal or going with the flow on claims/votes. I don't trust Imiknorris because the pilot claim was his idea, and the two who listened to him are dead. In short, I don't trust any of you fuckers, but when placed in order of scummitude, the first four are as listed above.

If this weren't a bastard game, I'd argue that somebody who suspects everybody suspects nobody (i.e., is scum), but the lack of roleflips has certainly muddled the issue.

It does make me a little unnerved about you though.

Bookthras, you're apparently big on getting everybody to try and participate and figure out the bastard mod, but why is it that two out of four of your suspects are on there for doing exactly that?

Which two? GG I see, but what other? Regardless, they're there for scumminess, not for poking at the bastardry, see below my response to GG for details, but in brief he's on the list not because he poked at the setting, but because he tried to convince the town of a plan he knew the mod had explicitly said was dangerous and counterproductive. His reaction to my criticism was also scummy, I think. that said, I appreciate and encourage his (and others) attempts at unraveling the bastardness, and in fact it was his idea/question that started us on the shortening path.

I was talking about Dariush and GlyphGryph, and to some extent, ToonyMan. Pretty much everyone who's speculated or proposed doing anything out of the ordinary you've found a reason to suspect.

Now you're changing your tune since I've pointed this out, and started patting people on the back for their speculation. How do I know you just weren't using people's speculation as a reason to suspect them, and using the Word of Mod as the argument?

[Toaster]

Shorten.

Dariush, you really need to work on your fakeclaims- you haven't really improved since Sorc App 2.  Everything you said is an incredible tower of bullshit, but the biggest one is you forgot that Native claimed pilot.  If you were really a townie concerned with his claims, you would have checked that.

That should read  "...Native claimed alien."

[Urist Imiknorris]

So Glyph, why are you voting Bookthras?

[Bookthras]

But, I don't think we should be shortening. Based on what Mephansteras said, successfully evading our pursuers has two factors: our head start, and how fast we run, both of which are variable in how much we rest.

I doubt Meph has given it as much thought as your model suggests. My (non-mathematical) interpretation is that the standard rest phase was, as he said, an estimated happy medium, but it did result in captures N1 and N2 (triggered by Dariush or not). When we took a head start, we outran them. It may be the case we are a bit more tired, though we don't know that fatigue is cumulative, and there's fewer of us so we may be able to run faster. We can try to outrun them again, with a longer rest and shorter head start (longer because weekend, shorter because we're shortening by 7 hours instead of 24).

As I see it, the worst that can happen is we don't outrun them, and someone is captured as in N1/N2. I doubt we are tired enough for more captures (as that would be "a bunch" as in the nolynch threat). Of course, I don't know for certain, but since it's the only thing we've tried that seems to have been effective, I see no reason not to try it again.

If we don't shorten, chances are we lose one person during the run; unless you think it's likely we'd lose "a bunch" if we shorten, I say we have nothing to lose by trying it.

If this weren't a bastard game, I'd argue that somebody who suspects everybody suspects nobody (i.e., is scum), but the lack of roleflips has certainly muddled the issue.

Bullshit. In a normal game, if I'm town, the only person I know is town is me; by default everyone else is suspect, it's just a matter of degree. Barring mechanics for a confirmed townie, even the most innocuous person may be just a very good liar. I didn't say I suspected everybody equally. Or is there anyone you don't suspect in the least, Jim? Who is confirmed town to you?

Now you're changing your tune since I've pointed this out, and started patting people on the back for their speculation. How do I know you just weren't using people's speculation as a reason to suspect them, and using the Word of Mod as the argument?

There is no tune changing. I encouraged people to poke at the bastardry from the outset. If they display scumminess while doing so, I suspect them for the scumminess displayed, not for the poking. Didn't we have conversations about, say, the dopp serum/hunger? Did I call you scummy for that? Or people's botanical curiosity as we entered the arboretum? No. Certainly if people try to convince the town of doing something the mod says will get more people killed, I consider that scummy, yes.

But you are using Dariush and Toony as your examples... do you think they weren't scummy? Or that I pulled arguments for their scumminess out of my flavourful ass? No. They were legitimately scummy. Likewise, I think GG is acting scummily, not for the poking, but for the proposing of the insta-shorten nolynch even after the mod said it was a bad idea, and his reactions afterward (plus I was suspicious of Think earlier in the game, but didn't push him as they were mostly gut-related and he was lurky).

[GlyphGryph]

My vote is on Bookthras mostly for pressure, but also to see if anyone followed it. Let's be honest, Dariush is going to make damn well sure he's lynched today, there's no question about that.

I still think Books opposition to an instashorten nolynch is suspect. He's not even arguing against it on merits. I still support the idea. Meanwhile, I think his "shorten twice in a row" strategy is terrible, and far more likely to get people caught than a single insta-shorten. What I'd really like to do is spend a longer time resting today, and, if we go another night without a kill, do the no-lynch insta-shorten tomorrow.

If we go 2 nights without a scumkill, there's probably a damn good reason for it - we might have killed all the scum, but there might be other issues later, and all we know is we're severely lacking in information. If there's another hidden pilot, I don't want to lynch them because we feel we need to lynch someone, even though scum aren't killed.

And personally I still see the insta-shorten as the best way to avoid the fallout from not lynching someone.

[IronyOwl]

And personally I still see the insta-shorten as the best way to avoid the fallout from not lynching someone.

That'd make the optimal strategy skipping through the game, though. Which I suppose makes some sense once all the scum are dealt with, but still seems like a wonky method of attaining victory.

[Dariush]

Yes, sure, I just lied about killing someone. Despite there being no way to check that, thus me having literally no reason to do that. Of course.

What can be more lynch-happy than a mob of townies faced with an easy lynch?
A mob of survivors faced with an easy lynch. Yaaaaay.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Good going, you've just dispelled all doubt as to your scumhood.

[Mephansteras]

The Vote Tally
Bookthras: Dariush, GlyphGryph
Dariush: Bookthras, IronyOwl, Jim Groovester, Shakerag, Toaster, Urist Imiknorris


Rest Phase ends ~5pm Pacific Monday. There are 4 votes to Shorten the rest. 5 votes total needed to shorten to ~10am Pacific Monday.

[GlyphGryph]

And personally I still see the insta-shorten as the best way to avoid the fallout from not lynching someone.

That'd make the optimal strategy skipping through the game, though. Which I suppose makes some sense once all the scum are dealt with, but still seems like a wonky method of attaining victory.

Unless, as I hypothesized earlier and, as in Jim's formula, insta-shortens DO cost us something. Then using them, but sparingly, would be the key to success. Because running without resting TIRES us. So we'd be really tired and really NEED to rest at the next stop - An insta-shorten would almost be required to be followed by a lengthen or else our head start would quickly be surpassed by our reduced speed due to tiredness.

Assuming my conjectures about the way this works are correct. Which it may not be, but damn if that wouldn't be a good way to check.

[Bookthras]

So, we are one short for shortening?

Pro: Toaster, IronyOwl, Imiknorris, Bookthras
Absent: Zrk2
Against: Dariush, Jim, GG, Shakerag

I'm not surprised by Dariush or Zrk2, of course, and Shake has always been a bit lurky, but the other two are... odd. First, they are both courageous players, I'd expect them to actually "oppose shorten" if they thought it was unwise rather than let it linger or pass the buck. That speaks to a certain reluctance to stick one's neck out. If you think it's a bad idea, but you don't oppose it, you're being shifty and scummy.

Let's look a bit closer at GG's recent comments:

Meph: Does shortening multiple days in a row increase the danger?
Assuming it doesn't, I'd be fine shortening. I also think I actually already asked that, but don't remember an answer if I got one.

Meph: Does shortening multiple days in a row increase the danger?

The less you rest the further ahead you get but the more tired you will be.

GG said "assuming shortening multiple days in a row doesn't increase the danger, I'd be fine". Meph reply does not indicate there's any cumulative fatigue, but how tired you are is only a function of how long you rested (that phase, implied). But GG not only didn't shorten, but proceeded to go back on his statement and accused me for proposing the shorten:

I think his "shorten twice in a row" strategy is terrible, and far more likely to get people caught than a single insta-shorten.

Note this is after Meph's reply. There is absolutely no indication in any of Meph's posts that it would be far more likely to get people caught. Worse, he thinks shortening two days in a row is scummy... what was his original suggestion? That we insta-shortened today, right after shortening yesterday. The very thing he now thinks is scummy, but with even less rest, and a nolynch on top. It's like he's trying hard to get people caught.

GG, answer these please:
a) Meph implied, in reply to your question, that fatigue is only linked to extent rested on that day; with that in mind, how do you justify asking for an insta-shorten? and why didn't you follow through with your original "I'd be fine with it"? Or if you disagree with that interpretation, then justify your own interpretation, with quotes, that support an insta-shorten as safe.
b) You now say "shortening two days in a row" is scummy. What were you trying to do here? It says, right after the D3 shorten "If we have a night without a night kill, we agree to do an insta-shorten no-lynch." Isn't that shortening two days in a row? Didn't you say that was far more likely to get people caught?


But that's not all that's been going on. See this:

Bookthras When you post, it looks like your trying so hard. But then you always seem to go for the easy lynch targets, don't you? And now you've gone silent. Maybe it's just my gut, at this point, but something seems incredibly off about your play in this game.

I don't mind if he votes me, but it was based on a lie, so I challenged it. His answer: "It was a got feeling, and looking back it doesn't really bear out."[1] In other words, a lie, or at least an admission there was no basis for his statement. When further contested, he added:

My vote is on Bookthras mostly for pressure, but also to see if anyone followed it. [...] I still think Books opposition to an instashorten nolynch is suspect. He's not even arguing against it on merits. I still support the idea. Meanwhile, I think his "shorten twice in a row" strategy is terrible, and far more likely to get people caught than a single insta-shorten.

So... for pressure? Pressure to do what? No, you didn't vote me for pressure, you voted me based on a lie, and followed up with another lie (or at least unsupported by Meph) that shortening D4 was "likely to get more people caught", even after making that very same proposal yourself.

The other lie, that I've not objected "on merits" to the nolynch. Of course I have, multiple times, and come down to this Meph quote:

The whole idea behind leaving someone behind is for them to slow down your chasers so the rest of you escape. If you decide not to leave anyone behind, you are more likely to get a bunch of you caught. At least, that's what's happened so far during this escape.

I didn't make this up. Yet you continue to push for the idea that Meph said is most likely to get "a bunch" of people captured. You think I haven't argued against it on merits? How about this post? Or several others?

In short, you lied, several times, advocated actions that you yourself consider more likely to get people caught, and lack the balls to either follow though on your "I'd be fine with it if not cumulative" statement, or to object to the shorten if you actually believe it unwise.


GG said (in two posts, but quoted together for brevity):

What I'd really like to do is spend a longer time resting today, and, if we go another night without a kill, do the no-lynch insta-shorten tomorrow.

And personally I still see the insta-shorten as the best way to avoid the fallout from not lynching someone.

a) do you think extending to do nothing is something Meph would encourage?
b) on what do you base the speculation that "insta-shorten" would avoid the fallout from nolynching? Nolynching means captors get to you faster (no one left behind to block them); insta-shorten means no rest, so we will lose people from fatigue. This will likely result in more people getting captured, not less. After all, another Meph quote:

Meph, if we take too short of a rest break, will the fatigue from continued running affect our escape chances? That seems likely, as you are stopping to rest for a reason.

How do you reconcile the above with your notion that not resting would "avoid the fallout"?



But let's leave that aside, and see if we can deduce something else from the situation. Let's assume for the moment that Dariush was lying about he being the only killer, with a two-shot in the entire game.

N2, we lynched a dopp who went willingly and ran in the expected "happy medium" length of rest time. We lost Powder Miner.
N3, we lynched a dopp who went willingly and ran a few hours ahead of the expected length of rest time. We lost no one.

If we wait until deadline and run, we'll probably lose one person. It'd be unfortunate, but consistent with N1/N2 and the standard attrition rate in these games. If we shorten, we may again lose no one. That'd be great. If we're too tired, we may lose one person to the standard "capture" kill or fatigue, but we'd be in the same situation as if we hadn't shortened.

The only case where shortening is worse is if we think it'd get "a bunch" of people captured (like, say, a nolynch). Is there any reason to think so? I see none, none supported by Meph quotes, and none supported by flavour or experience. So why not try to shorten?


Jim, Shakerag: have the balls to either shorten or oppose the shorten.