Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Kanil]

i don't care much for the new system, and i don't care much for the old system, so i'm not trying to defend any position here but

I now have to mine four times the tiles, instead of training a legendary miner.

you can make 4 blocks out of one boulder in the masonry shop now. one dabbling miner produces as much building stone as a legendary miner in the old system. it's only with furniture, and possibly steel making, that you have to worry now

You're right. I'm very embarrassed to have not noticed that. I guess I stopped reading after clicking the link or my brain zoned out or something.

Still not the ideal solution to the problem, imo... but it's a much more trivial change than I originally understood it to be.

[Torchy]

This is only true if you're guaranteed to get one boulder every four tiles mined. If it's actually a 25% chance of getting a boulder for each tile, then the odds are not at all in your favor. It's technically possible, under such a system, to mine out a 10x10 room and not get a single usable stone.

Strictly speaking, the odds are exactly as much in your favor as they were before.

[Keldane]

This is only true if you're guaranteed to get one boulder every four tiles mined. If it's actually a 25% chance of getting a boulder for each tile, then the odds are not at all in your favor. It's technically possible, under such a system, to mine out a 10x10 room and not get a single usable stone.

Strictly speaking, the odds are exactly as much in your favor as they were before.

No, not really. Prior to the change, a legendary miner could dig out a 10x10 room and get 100 boulders guaranteed. After the change, a legendary miner could dig out the same space and it's technically possible to get no stone at all, if it's a 25% drop chance per tile. Anyone who plays an MMO can tell you that an item having a 1% drop chance doesn't guarantee you'll get it after 100 kills. =P

As I say, if it's a guaranteed boulder every four tiles, then it's no problem. If it's a 25% chance, then it's luck based and there's no guarantee you'll get as much stone as you want.

[NW_Kohaku]

No, not really. Prior to the change, a legendary miner could dig out a 10x10 room and get 100 boulders guaranteed. After the change, a legendary miner could dig out the same space and it's technically possible to get no stone at all, if it's a 25% drop chance per tile. Anyone who plays an MMO can tell you that an item having a 1% drop chance doesn't guarantee you'll get it after 100 kills. =P

As I say, if it's a guaranteed boulder every four tiles, then it's no problem. If it's a 25% chance, then it's luck based and there's no guarantee you'll get as much stone as you want.

Do you realize what the odds are of missing a 25% chance 100 times in a row are?

I just ran the numbers... It's 3 trillion to 1. 

Those are basically the odds of being struck by lightning on the same day you win the lottery.

The law of averages is going to catch up with you on anything more than about a dozen of a given type of boulders. 

[Keldane]

No, not really. Prior to the change, a legendary miner could dig out a 10x10 room and get 100 boulders guaranteed. After the change, a legendary miner could dig out the same space and it's technically possible to get no stone at all, if it's a 25% drop chance per tile. Anyone who plays an MMO can tell you that an item having a 1% drop chance doesn't guarantee you'll get it after 100 kills. =P

As I say, if it's a guaranteed boulder every four tiles, then it's no problem. If it's a 25% chance, then it's luck based and there's no guarantee you'll get as much stone as you want.

Do you realize what the odds are of missing a 25% chance 100 times in a row are?

I just ran the numbers... It's 3 trillion to 1. 

Those are basically the odds of being struck by lightning on the same day you win the lottery.

The law of averages is going to catch up with you on anything more than about a dozen of a given type of boulders.

The point remains that a string of bad luck can destroy an entire vein with nothing to show for it.

[Rose]

Also a string of good luck means that you get quadruple the normal amount from a vein.

[NW_Kohaku]

The point remains that a string of bad luck can destroy an entire vein with nothing to show for it.

By that sort of logic, there's no point worrying about it, because there's a chance for you to die when a meteor strikes your house before the next release comes out. The odds of such an event happening are so astronomically slim that it makes little sense.   

For all the extreme pessimism you are showing, are you considering that if a MMO has a 1% drop rate for item X, then you are actually very likely to have more than one item X if you kill 100 of those enemies?  You have roughly a 1/3rd shot to get exactly one item, 1/3rd chance to get nothing, and 1/3rd chance to get any number more than one.  If you applied that rationale of long odds coming true, you'd wind up with 100 of item X, in spite of the low drop rate.  (The odds of which are 10^200, which is a number so large, I'm not sure if there is a word for it, but googol^2 works.)

Besides, anything you can find 100 of in this game, you can find 10000 of.  How often do you expect to get struck by lightning, anyway?

[MrWiggles]

I expect to get struck by lighting enough to fix the funny taste from last time.

[bucketHoolave]

What I would like to see, is for mine cart stops to have the option to dump the contents of the cart.

The squares next to the stop could be designated as a normal dump.  However, dump tiles would receive a maximum capacity. 

Should the maximum capacity be reached, the items are stored inside a container.

This container is called rubbish.

Rubbish behaves like a liquid.

This liquid grows the more you dump into it.

The larger the rubbish pile, the longer it takes to find the item you were looking for in the rubbish pile, so the arger the pile, the longer it takes a dwarf to retrieve it from the pile.

Also, wear and tear are not calculated on the items in rubbish until they are retrieved.  Once retrieved, they are assigned wear, and there is a random chance that it will be broken.

[Rinin_Rus]

Do you realize what the odds are of missing a 25% chance 100 times in a row are?

I just ran the numbers... It's 3 trillion to 1. 

Those are basically the odds of being struck by lightning on the same day you win the lottery.

The law of averages is going to catch up with you on anything more than about a dozen of a given type of boulders.

True for veins, but small clusters of ore (like platinum) still have 25%-30% chance to produce nothing.

[Moddan]

Shouldn't a 1/4 dig chance lead to this overall chance to get at least something out of k squares: sum(3^n/4^(n+1)), neN from 0 to (k-1)) ?
About 58% for 3 squares, 82% for 6 , 94% for 10 and 99,7% for 20.

[Triaxx2]

Frankly, that's why save scumming was invented.

[DG]

For so long as save-scumming applies, no law of averages should worry anyone. If you're someone who is worried about a 25% drop rate on a small vein of ore, don't tell me you wouldn't save-scum it.

Fake edit: Ninja'd. What Triaxx2 said.

Also let's try to keep "I'll stop playing if x" statements out of the thread. It's probably not anyone's intention, but they can come off like an ultimatum.

[dreiche2]

Do you realize what the odds are of missing a 25% chance 100 times in a row are?

I just ran the numbers... It's 3 trillion to 1. 

Those are basically the odds of being struck by lightning on the same day you win the lottery.

The law of averages is going to catch up with you on anything more than about a dozen of a given type of boulders.

True for veins, but small clusters of ore (like platinum) still have 25%-30% chance to produce nothing.

Right, but that element of chance is completely swamped by all the other randomness in the game, such as whether there is a vein in the first place and what its size is.

Let's not make things too complicated, folks.

[slink]

No, not really. Prior to the change, a legendary miner could dig out a 10x10 room and get 100 boulders guaranteed. After the change, a legendary miner could dig out the same space and it's technically possible to get no stone at all, if it's a 25% drop chance per tile. Anyone who plays an MMO can tell you that an item having a 1% drop chance doesn't guarantee you'll get it after 100 kills. =P

As I say, if it's a guaranteed boulder every four tiles, then it's no problem. If it's a 25% chance, then it's luck based and there's no guarantee you'll get as much stone as you want.

Do you realize what the odds are of missing a 25% chance 100 times in a row are?

I just ran the numbers... It's 3 trillion to 1. 

Those are basically the odds of being struck by lightning on the same day you win the lottery.

The law of averages is going to catch up with you on anything more than about a dozen of a given type of boulders.

Have you ever observed a random number generator in action?  It's not a truly random proces in the first place, and in the second place can get "stuck" under some conditions.  Anyone who has used Craftable Natural Resources in a Neverwinter Nights world can tell you that there are times when the rise and fall of the visibly cyclic "random" results can get stuck on zero.  At those times it's just best to walk away and come back later.  This isn't a unique phenomenum, but it is unusual in that CNR tells you what your 100-sided die roll was.  In other probability based games on the computer you can see the cyclicity in terms of success and failure, but usually not the numeric data.

My point is that the traditional calculation of the probability of getting zero boulders for a 10x10 room mined with a 25% success rate isn't strictly applicable to a random number generator on a computer, because the random numbers generated by a computer are not truly random.  The propensity of computerized random numbers for getting stuck on zero may be the result of a function call returning with no result, as it seems to be associated with a lagging processing of the event queue for a given interval.